China peaked many weeks ago-opinion on US future
5 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 19, 2020, 1:49 p.m.

I believe this particular week may mark the peak/maximum in panic(pure opinion-but we'll adjust that every day based on the data) but thats partly because  it hard to imagine a more extreme panic situation..........maybe people will start jumping off of roofs and out of the windows of tall buildings (-:

Once the testing catches us up to the real number out there..............the worst news will be out.

The virus is not going to start killing at a higher rate or become more deadly.

The virus will end up killing just a fraction of people that are killed by the flu each year.

But people are petrified of the unknown. Fear of the worst is usually much greater than the reality that happens. When the rate of increase in the daily reports slows down for numerous consecutive days, people will start feeling comfortable that this is not going to infect everybody and kill XX,XXX number of people. 

Maybe that can happen(gradually) before the end of the month.

Look at how many people were killed in China:


Coronavirus Cases:











Let's use our heads people and think about that.

We have 10 times that number of people who die from the flu every year in the US.  China has 3 times our population.

China had no new cases reported today.

I will say that I don't trust numbers coming from China but clearly they have long since past the peak/worst(just like we will) and things are almost ready to get closer to normal there.  ................that is still a few weeks down the road but a month ago,  NOBODY could have imagined NOBODY that China's new cases would have plunged this fast.

By cutworm - March 21, 2020, 3:46 p.m.
Like Reply

IMHO mike , We also have to remember what China had to do to get the number down, shut down everything in Wuhan. 

By wglassfo - March 21, 2020, 4:55 p.m.
Like Reply

Alternate social media that is leaking out of china says china is not elling the truth

Death certificates are falsified, people  are still being refused treatment as the hospital is full

A new hospital is almost finished construction

Industry is not ramped up as much as china would have us believe

Why china is not telling the world the truth is a mystery

Remember china tried to tell us the doctor was spreading false propaganda

They have postponed indefinitely their great gathering of all the officials, who meet to discuss policy etc

One person suggested when Russia allows cross border travel with china as does S Korea then china will have the virus under control

Until then china has many  new infections

You can believe what ever you want about china and their new infections

By metmike - March 21, 2020, 5:52 p.m.
Like Reply

I don't trust China either Wayne but we can believe what's coming out of S.Korea...........and it gives us great hope!

Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success?

Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

By mcfarm - March 22, 2020, 8:32 a.m.
Like Reply

all that sounds like good news MM. But the cat is long out of the bag. China lied to the world way back before the turn of the year. That lie and the msm's immediate hope to destroy Trump with this storys led to countless conspiracy theories that are wrecking our nation today. Our ancestors would be quite proud of us today. Fighting over toilet paper over a virus with a 98 or 99% recovery rate.

By wglassfo - March 22, 2020, 3:03 p.m.
Like Reply

Re: S Korea and the above article

S Korea did some thing no other country did or will likely do except Bahrain [I think]

That is the number of tests/1000 capita

They tested 5200/1000 capita and followed up with suspected contacts of infected, with an aggressive effort to limit the spread of the virus

The USA is currently testing 74/1000 capita and I hope at least following the contact trail of infections, but no information was given about the USA response to following the infection trail in the above article, [unless I missed it which I often do]

S Korea did not do a lock down but seems to be on the path to  lower infections

I think this tells us testing at high numbers and following the trail of contacts is more effective than lock downs

Unfortunately, the USA and the world, did not do enough testing soon enough and now have a lack of sufficient test kits, for the likely number of unknown infections

My understanding is private Co's are making test kits, ICU bed space is being investigated for possible use and ventilators are being made

Unfortunately the rest of the world has closed the door after the horse is gone, by using lock down procedures

I fear S Korea is not a good example, but the number of increased infections will fall, some time. The problem then becomes how long will this virus continue to infect until an effective vaccine is found. 12-18 months is the hope but nobody said that will happen.

We will likely have some thing like 350,000 reported world infections some time on Monday, not counting new infections from china or unknown infections because nobody knows how many unreported infections  are out there, Even people who think they had the flue with a couple days of sickness then recovery will not know

One note of optimism, even though the virus is more deadly to some people, the vast majority will recover, so "the sky is not falling" unless the virus mutates and affects younger people with higher mortality rates then known today. Even then one would think the vast majority will recover. Still, I don't think I would have gone to the beach during spring break. These people , if infected, will  recover, in most cases, but the carrier effect has no empathy for the spread as an unknown carrier to all corners of the country, to those who may not recover if infected, when a family member comes home, due to classes being cancelled

I said millions would be infected. There is no need to re-hash the response I got to my projection post

I suppose that means at least two million reported infections, but if the trajectory does not stop soon, the rate of infections will reach millions  world wide

This is one time I would be very happy to be wrong