I've got a post about inflation

I don't know if inflation and/or depression is linked or separate events

The German experience is the poster child for depression and inflation but Germany was different as they had to pay enormous reparations to the French after WW1

Is deficit spending our reparation payment

In other words even low int rates do add up on the expense side of the ledger, as do social spending etc demanded by the voter, witth no viable way to pay the bill

Health care will certainly take on a new importance for spending after this virus experience

The spending will be approved by congress who think no longer than their next election

No idea how this all shakes out and when, but we can rest assured life will be different

I have posted either an R or a D

Good question. People have always been divided in this type of situation. Does the government take care of the populace. Or does it ignore the repercussions on the populace, in favor of maintaining the economy?

My observations of what Trump has been trying to accomplish in the past week, seems to be trying to please everyone on both sides. While trying to minimise the obvious toll this is going to take on the people. Many cudos to him for the effort. But, unfortunately, the government can't really save everyone, from everything.

Which is more dangerous? It is the sheeple. The ones who have gone out and hoarded up everything they can. Maybe because they know not what they need in a situation like this. But their ignorance is the most threatening factor. Ignorance of history, that shows that such "plagues" that we are experiencing, are usually short lived. Like 3-4 months. So the panic buying at the grocery stores, is about equivalent to the panic selling on Wall St. Ignorance causing idiocy.

This WILL peak within 3 weeks. 

Then, people will suddenly realize that the sky is not falling.

This week, the sky is falling but ironically, it's MUCH, MUCH safer to be out there right now. The huge increase in the numbers is a lagging indicator..............telling us about LAST WEEK and previous to that before the draconian measures.

Evidence of the affect of ramped up testing catching massive numbers of people out there previous to this week............spreading the virus unchecked, untested and in favorable environments is here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

I'm using Texas (below)as an extreme example of what every state experienced..............almost no cases reported before this week.............mainly because almost no cases were tested.  Were there almost no cases out there and thats why they were not tested?  No way.

Many results from tests of the last couple of days are still not known...... so there is STILL a lag of results reporting the reality.  So much of what we are measuring right now is not today's number of cases but a lagging indicator, that at best is telling us what it was like earlier in the week and THE CHANGE in the new number is the result of cases from last week and previously not detected showing up this week.

We are taking these people out of circulation. If we were measuring/testing exactly the same for the last 3 weeks, then the big increase in numbers would tell us that this week, we had a sudden increase in numbers that is exploding higher exponentially. But this weeks numbers are capturing last week and the even the week before's reality and are added to this week in 1 figure vs the false reality of numbers last week and before that only really tell us that we were not testing(if you don't test-you don't have positives).

The faster we catch up this week, the faster we take those carriers out of circulation.........so ironically, the numbers spiking higher are actually the opposite of what you might assume. With those people quickly being identified on a large scale and the environment to spread being massively minimized and people taking crazy precautions(people are bringing their hand sanitizer with them, stores that are open are sterilizing), its MUCH, MUCH safer to be out there today vs last week and the week before.  Ignorance was bliss 2 weeks ago. Awareness of a lagging indicator is petrifying this week.  

The good thing is that the rapid spike making it  temporarily look like the spread is faster THIS week, will catch up, then better reflect just new cases operating under the new environment. When that happens, it will make it look BETTER than it really is for a short while because it will be compared with the previous period(right now) of it looking WORSE than it is(of the spread).

It may take until late this month for this lagging indicator to turn........extremely likely it will happen by early April. Then, people will be reacting to the reality of right now, this week that they are not appreciating yet.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

Texas 

2,355 tests | +2,316 since last week

This means only 39 tested before this week.  There have been 59 times more tests done in TX since last week vs previous.

Was this because the virus affected 59 times more people?

Though it did increase(because these people were not identified) a huge reason was more tests.

More tests mean that we are just now identifying and isolating these people for the first time. It's safer to be out there now than is was last week!!

My opinion is that we are doing far more damage.............(the cure is worse than the disease) with the actions than the disease itself will do.......at the moment.

However, we will be seeing the dividends of these extreme, draconian measures possibly by late March and for sure by early April. Those dividends will start paying off handsomely and we will quickly begin to reverse the damage.

Sort of like chemo or radiation to kill cancer.  The most effective treatment to kill the cancer, also kills alot of good cells/tissue and greatly damages the patient on several levels. 

You want to kill the cancer without killing the patient.............and then, the patient can heal and recover.

Current draconian measures are the BEST for killing(not completely) the Coronavirus...........even as they are killing the economy and patients.  In 3 weeks, we will see the results clearly and the patient will be on the road to a strong recovery..................at first, psychologically as the panic and fear goes away with the KNOWN, no longer being as bad as what was once speculated and widely circulated. Then, as we are able to resume many activities and re open businesses, the economy will recover quickly.

When the increase in the daily numbers stops and especially when those numbers start falling(and that WILL happen within 3 weeks-hopefully sooner), the scary UNKNOWNS being sensationalized pathetically to use against President Trump by CNN (I've been refraining from those type of comments this month but watched them do it all day yesterday and its relevant here) will become KNOWNS.

Everybody will look at this period, in fact, this particular week and think "OMG, why was I so petrified and panicking over something that might only kill a fraction of the number of people that the flu does every year?? "

This is how people think in the middle of a panicked crisis that only becomes apparent in the rear view mirror. 

Interesting topic.  My Mom died of brain cancer about 6 years ago after a year of chemo the cancer came back with a vengeance.  She was determined to not linger in a nursing home like my Dad is right now.  She had made it clear for years that we to not do any heroic measures to keep her alive.  She said she lived a good full life and if it was her time to go, it was her time to go.

My Dad on the other hand, he had a stroke about 10 years ago now and he has struggled everyday since then.  And as he has gotten older the struggles are getting more difficult.  He is 86 and will probably live to be 90+.  I love the man to death, but it breaks my heart to watch him.  He doesn't remember the last 20 years of his life, unless you show him pictures and jog his memory.  His back hurts from sitting in a wheel chair all day, so he is in constant pain. I would miss him if he died but I would also be relieved that he is in peace.

As most nursing homes go, I'm sure, he is actually in better shape than about 70% of the people in the nursing home.  A large percentage (women) spend their life in a wheel chair, being showered, fed and cleaned.  They are alive, but they aren't living.  They are drooling in their pillows.  Are we compassionate because we keep them alive or cruel/selfish?  

Nature works in mysterious ways.  In all matters, it attacks the weak.  That's what keeps us strong as we evolve to fight for our lives.  Medicine has kept us ahead of the curve, but viruses evolve too.  One day, the viruses will win out.  We get closer to that day, everyday.  

Hi Mike

If I understandyou correctly you are saying it is safer out there today than yesterday or last week or?

I agree to some extent.

I get the impression you think this lock down is a draconian measure and not neccesary

Well if  so, then you may be spreading false hope In other words [if I understand correctly] you think life should go on as usual

I disagree

I am one of those who thinks some measure of precaution is sensible. We go to town once a week. We shop at the grocery store and the drug store

We do not socialize at the coffee shop, nor do we go to church

Some  small measure of social distancing is good

Being retired we do not have to go to work, but my wife's former place of work has people a safe distance away from others

Any inputs for the farm such s oil, filters is set out the door and we pick them up after everybody is gone

This testing IMHO is nothing but a "feel good" thing to make people think some thing is being done

Unless you test every single person on the same day no amount of testing is proof positive. Yes some will be tested positive but a great many will not be tested and some of those will be carriers. I don't want to be close to a carrier

We can't wave a magic wand, but we can try to flatten the curve so the health and safety, in our hospitals is some what less over whelming

If we look at china they did do draconian measures and now they have recovered and on their way to full productivity, if we can belive china

What you are proposing will drag this on and on until people simply ignore any satey measures

A bit of safety is much better if china is a model to follow vs Italy who got behind and will never catch up and probably have more deaths/capita than china did

Or you can use France or Germany if you think Italy is full of old people. Actually they have a large population of younger people from what we saw when in Italy, Some of the younger folks may not  have shown symptoms, and helped to spread the virus, until it was too late for the entire country

We will never know what actually happened in Italy, but we can have some really good ideas of what happened. 

 I think an once of prevention is needed in these trying times. The coffee shop should be avoided

Wayne says: "I get the impression you think this lock down is a draconian measure and not neccesary

Well if  so, then you may be spreading false hope In other words [if I understand correctly] you think life should go on as usual

I disagree"

Wayne,

I continue to correct you over and over on this. Maybe half a dozen times now. It takes me time to respond to you to help you to understand your confusion on this.   When I do this repeatedly, like I'm doing for the last time on this point it makes you look silly for ignoring the previous 5 times that I corrected your wrong opinion on it. After this post, from now on when you claim that "I think life should go on as usual" or that I am against actions we are taking to stop the virus,  I will just delete that post, rather than post another response like this one if its wasting my time. 

I would appreciate a response to this. In the absence of that, I will assume that you are not getting the messages because you are just not reading them.  

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

From my post above:

My opinion is that we are doing far more damage.............(the cure is worse than the disease) with the actions than the disease itself will do.......at the moment.

However, we will be seeing the dividends of these extreme, draconian measures possibly by late March and for sure by early April. Those dividends will start paying off handsomely and we will quickly begin to reverse the damage.

Sort of like chemo or radiation to kill cancer.  The most effective treatment to kill the cancer, also kills alot of good cells/tissue and greatly damages the patient on several levels.

You want to kill the cancer without killing the patient.............and then, the patient can heal and recover.

Current draconian measures are the BEST for killing(not completely) the Coronavirus...........even as they are killing the economy and patients.  In 3 weeks, we will see the results clearly and the patient will be on the road to a strong recovery..................at first, psychologically as the panic and fear goes away with the KNOWN, no longer being as bad as what was once speculated and widely circulated. Then, as we are able to resume many activities and re open businesses, the economy will recover quickly.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

From several recent posts to you on this same topic:

                Re: Re: Coronavirus: Fed cuts rates to near zero, CDC says cancel gatherings of 50            

                By metmike - March 16, 2020, 7:46 p.m.            

Wayne,

You disagree with me on something that we agree on and I just tried to elaborate to you on the NTR forum:

                Re: Re: Wonderful Chess Tournament            

                By metmike - March 16, 2020, 12:42 p.m.            

Wayne,

I have insisted for weeks that shutting down and cancelling things is a very good thing:

Here are just 2 recent examples/quotes:

                *Tracking the Coronavirus-best sites            

                            13 responses |         

                Started by metmike - March 14, 2020, 11:49 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

"Shutting everything down now is a really  good thing!  It's helping to control the spread tremendously.  Short term pain for longer term gain!  The Coronavirus is worse than the flu for mainly older people(scroll down for more)......compromised immune systems and those with serious health problems..............mainly because much of that population is able to be protected from the flu every year with immunization shots.  The threat to those not in that population is very, very small and the panicked fears are unjustified."

               *Crazy Coronavirus Compilation            

                            4 responses |       

                Started by metmike - March 13, 2020, 12:13 p.m.            

"6 weeks ago, I never thought that the US would be shutting everything done in mid March........even with expectations of it getting MUCH worse and people continuing to way over react.

Again, the shut downs and cancellations are a good thing to lessen the spread greatly and help us to get thru the panic quicker."

Does that answer some of your questions Wayne?

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Wonderful Chess Tournament            

                By metmike - March 16, 2020, 12:53 p.m.            

Wayne: 1;  Do you think we should continue life as usual with no cancellations of anything and social distancing is a myth that should be ignored,  thus continue with the chess tournament

Answered with several posts copied above and below. 

Wayne: 2:  Do you think the rate of virus infection spreading is no greater than the flue spreading from infected to others

Because nobody has immunity from shots that we get for the flu..........Coronavirus can potentially affect more people but it WILL NOT affect more people with confidence because of extreme measures to prevent that.

Wayne: 3:  Do you think the survival rate of virus infections is equal less or greater than the flue, over the entire population of the USA.

Coronavirus is mainly killing old/sick people more than the flu because 90% of them are protected by flu shots. This is closer to what things would look like if we did not have a flu vaccine. Much higher deaths in the old/sick because they would not be protected. It's more than this but that element has a huge impact not being dialed into the deaths from an UNKNOWN virus that are GREATER than deaths from the KNOWN virus.

Wayne: 4::  Do you think the number of virus infections, in the USA will be less or more, than infections from the common flue in the yr 2020

Not only will infections be less, they will be  MUCH less. We don't have enough numbers yet but probably less than 10% of infections from the flu which is the MUCH HIGHER risk to most people just based on the larger number that are infected with the flu.

BTW, the shutdowns will crush the flu too and save more flu lives than the total number of Corona deaths.

Here's more elaborating previous thoughts:

                Re: Re: Re: Everyone forgets 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic            

                By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:56 p.m.            

            https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48739/

Ironically, I think that very aggressive even draconian measures being taken to cancel events and close schools should reassure us vs it currently signaling that this must be really, really bad because they never did this before.

The Swine and other flu's spread rapidly because people went about their lives as usual...........not taking special precautions.

With the Coronavirus, people are already washing their hands several times a day more and in places that report cases, people will be avoiding potential contact with the virus by changing their routines. This, by itself will cut way down on the spread vs how really, really bad it could spread if everybody treated it like the flu.  So this is a really, really good thing and the number of people infected with the flu will also go down.

So I am for taking most of these pretty extreme measures:

1. They will help to lessen the spread
2. People "should" feel better that actions are being taken
3. They are all just temporary inconveniences.
4. Maybe this will set a precedent for dealing with the flu that kills 40,000 Americans every year

Tks Mike

My mistake

Sorry

Alex used to have some sort of sin bin

Maybe  I should be punished for my mistaken assumptions

I have no explanation why I thought as I did

 My mistake did my  credibility a great deal of harm 

I fell really really stupid

Wayne,

Thanks for responding this time........and so quickly.

Mistakes are just fine and all humans make them...........frequently(especially me) but we just needed to address this repeating one so that I don't have to repeatedly respond to correct it.

I still love you Wayne and look forward to your posting.

Your friend,

metmike

Related to this. Though I have been on board with almost every decision to shut things down, we are getting to a point of the cure being worse than the disease in some places.

I have a concern with the state of Illinois issuing a stay at home order for the entire state for the next 2 weeks instance.

School closings and other closings across the entire state, cancellations and so on,  I understand but to elevate it to the extreme level that they just did which is very justified in the 6 counties surrounding the Chicago area, when the other 96 counties have 0 cases or low single digits numbers in several counties will effect peoples seriousness of following the order in areas that don't have an infected case for 100 miles.

For one thing, it just makes no sense for people in Southeast IL, where there are over 2 dozen counties without 1 case to have the same extreme stay at home emergency as that which was needed to respond to the area with a crisis.  

This is just bad science for one thing. The same warning for places that don't  have a case for 100 miles as the places that have over 500 cases in 25 miles.

I am in the business that issues more warnings, alerts, bulletins and advisories than any other. For 11 years, I passed on these warnings to hundreds  of thousands and dealt with the public and for 38 years have interpreted them and passed them on to our local schools. One thing that makes people increasingly  complacent are warnings that repeatedly feature no bad weather. After awhile, people get the "boy that cried wolf syndrome" and don't take the source serious anymore.

This is just 1 emergency but it damages the credibility of the source from the get go when they blanket cover the entire state for a risk that clearly is very concentrated in a pocket in the Chicago area that includes just 6 counties that are surrounded by counties with 0 to 1 cases and most of the rest of the 102 counties in Illinois have 0 cases and those that don't are in the low single digits.

Its absolutely  justified in those 6 counties.   They should distinguish and single out those 6 counties.

One of the biggest benefits of the testing is to identify individual cases..........their specific locations, contacts and then to isolate them. Using that data, we can respond locally and target the areas that need help and issue the toughest restrictions where the outbreaks are greatest. Test results allow us to use pinpoint geographical information and apply it to that area for the most effective response.

If we had a line of severe storms with tornadoes about to clobber those 6 counties in Northern IL, is would be ludicrous to blanket warn the entire state of IL, with a tornado warning when the other 96 counties have clear skies.

People getting a warning like that in 96 counties would think the NWS was full of crap when they looked at the radar loop/picture.

Many people in 96 counties of IL with no cases to almost no cases and see 500 cases in the Chicago area will think what about the stay at home decree?

Ideally, you want them all to see and understand the reasoning and be on board with following the order because they agree. However, that will not be the case.

If  I'm in the Chicago area, I'm more likely to take them serious.  

If I'm outside that area, especially for over 2 dozen counties in Southeast IL surrounding each other without a case................basically 25,000 people and not 1 case, I'm questioning why I need to stay home.  

The objective of the source of the warning/emergency is to provide accurate, timely, justifiable/credible information and alerts that require important actions for those in the covered areas, based on that information. They are supposed to be the authorities that we listen to and act on with their expert alerts. We shouldn't need to 2nd guess or do our own self interpretation of their warning/emergency based on them giving questionable advice.

I have been ok with the most extreme measures to this point but am getting concerned that the cure is much worse than the disease. Their is almost unthinkable damage taking place right now to the economy, peoples income/lives and the markets. We have to also apply reasoning/justification and damages vs benefits.  Ordering  the people in the majority of counties that have 0 cases to stay home is having what benefits? especially now that testing is rooting out exactly where the virus is. How many cases will this stop from spreading?  How many more ventilators will there be in 0 case counties.

Applying the state of IL coronavirus  fighting strategy here,  to our entire country, would mean shutting down the entire country for months because there will always still be some coronavirus in some places. We have to let the places where it is NOT and even the places where there are very low numbers go on with life closer to normal than in places where its festering.

This must be done or the massive damages to peoples lives that are real and occurring will greatly exceed the damages from the virus. Actually, that's happening already. but maybe we can start appreciating that the cure is costing way more than the disease in places where there is no disease.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-governor-expected-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-sources/2241118/

Illinois Governor Expected to Issue Stay-at-Home Order: Sources Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is expected to announced a statewide shelter-in-place order aimed at stopping the spread of coronavirus, multiple sources tell NBC 5. The order is expected to begin Saturday, the sources said, but it remains unclear how long it could last. Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot are set to hold a press ... www.nbcchicago.com

https://www2.illinois.gov/sites/coronavirus/map/pages/countymap.aspx

On our farm we assume we are an essential industry of providing food

We are not in mandatory lock down as in ILL but sort of on the honour system to limit yourself to essential movement

We have the same school closing, all events cancelled, drive thru only etc 

I agree with your thoughts about all of Ill in lock down 

Thanks Wayne!

 Our NJ gov Murphy has signed exec order 107 essentially locking down the state.

Below are some highlights:

To the extent a business or non-profit has employees that cannot perform their functions via telework or work-from-home arrangements, the business or non-profit should make best efforts to reduce staff on site to the minimal number necessary to ensure that essential operations can continue.

Examples of employees who need to be present at their work site in order to perform their job duties include, but are not limited to, law enforcement officers, fire fighters, other first responders, cashiers or store clerks, construction workers, utility workers, repair workers, warehouse workers, lab researchers, IT maintenance workers, janitorial and custodial staff, and certain administrative staff.

The Order continues existing bans on recreational and entertainment businesses, requirements that all restaurants operate by delivery and takeout only, and the directive that all pre-K, elementary, and secondary schools close and all institutions of higher education cease in-person instruction.

They allow construction workers among selected others to continue work.

Although I would postpone starting new projects,I plan to work the first few days next week in order to button-up some interior finish work on a fairly large residential renovation even tho this home is currently unoccupied.

Im not decided yet how I will treat the subs if they desire to continue with the next phases.

Yeppers-this sux.

  John

Yes it does John.

Thanks for passing along the info.

Bear, thank you for initiating this topic.

MetMike, , thank you for the comments on THE CURE.

I pose the following for further discussion:

1. Was not voluntary implementation of social distancing and hygiene measures sufficient, or was STAY AT HOME  Orders the best (only) solution?

2.  Is the duration of the Stay at Home Orders too lengthy?  Would not return to work and school, on Monday 1201 A.M. March 30, have been sufficient (with continued NO mass gatherings)?

3.  Have the stock and financial markets sufficiently discounted the effects of Corona now that mandatory measures and overwhelming compliance of  voluntary distancing and hygiene habits have been implemented?

MetMike--if you feel it necessary, please move these items to one or more Topic(s)

Tim

tjc,

Wonderful to see you and all great questions for discussion.

I'll let others chime in. It's good if you completely disagree with any points that I may have stated.