Happy March 22nd!
Tough to be optimistic in this current environment.
Despite the current pandemic, we still live in the best time of human history. This Coronavirus panic will be peaking............maybe sooner than you think. The markets have dialed in a lot of really, really bad news already. We'll use calculus/math and science to predict signs of the infection rate slowing down.............still a ways to go yet but the shut downs will show up in #infected stats peaking. This WILL happen. When the numbers stop going higher........the panic will be over.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Never too old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
Winter Weather Forecasts
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Reds Southeast to blues farther northwest.
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Moderate to heavy rains........especially southern and eastern Cornbelt.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
February March 19: No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Sunday: 12z run. Very mild!
Tuesday: Very mild average but a wide spread in individual solutions on the pattern.
Wednesday: Warm and wet........stormy.
Thursday: Nothing exciting.
Sunday: Mild to Warm on this model and European model.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 06, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Positive anomaly over Greenland and weak negative anomaly in the Northeast..........chilly Northeast/Great Lakes area.
Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly in the N.Pacific to Alaska for weeks is backing waaay up westward. Weak negative anomaly off the West Coast. Weak positive anomaly in the Midwest. Nothing to write home about. Mild temps.
Wednesday: Modest positive anomalies. Mild to warm.
Sunday: Huge Pattern change? Building positive anomaly NE Canada to Greenland, back to US Rockies/Plains, negative anomaly Southeast Canada to Northeast .........means chilly Northeast US. Warmer and drier Rockies/Plains, with modest positive anomalies. Potential for AO and NAO to go negative for the first time this year.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Sunday: AO and NAO finally dropping down to 0 after being positive all year, record +++++AO for awhile. Could bring some late season chilly air to the Northeast. Solidly negative PNA is usually not favorable for cold in the middle of the country.
Tuesday: AO and NAO drop down to 0 for the first time this year but with a very wide spread..........some members positive, some negative. This increases the chance for chilly air, although the actual pattern is not that impressive and we are talking early April now,. when cold is NOT very cold anymore. PNA solidly negative until late when it increases.
Wednesday: AO and NAO drop to 0. PNA increasing late from stout negative but the pattern does not look very cold. It will be April, so cold isn't going to last or be able to generate much heating demand.
Sunday: AO and NAO go negative for the first time in months. PNA increases greatly. Big pattern change potential. Warming up West to Plains........turning chilly Northeast. Also drying out with air masses going from higher to middle latitudes vs southern stream driven air masses with Gulf moisture.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
|the 8-14 day outlooks|
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