KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 20, 2020
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.16)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.21)
N/A Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W%
Chain Store Sales, M/M%
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.77M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 270100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +8.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as investors assessed the staggered plans for the reopening of economies all over the world in the wake of the deadly pandemic derived from the novel strain of coronavirus. Investors were also watching reports on progress on obtaining additional funds for small businesses and workers hurt by the worst viral outbreak in a century. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8006.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8446.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8006.54.
The June S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2921.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2630.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-declinecrossing at 2921.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2770.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2630.34.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177-14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 3rd high crossing at 182-31. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-22.
June T-notes were higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.129 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 2nd high crossing at 139.145. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.129. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 135.269.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends both the decline off April's high and the trading range of the past six-weeks.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the April 9th high crossing at 33.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 9th high crossing at 33.15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 37.71. First support is the March 18th low crossing at 21.64. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.
June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the April 2nd high crossing at 116.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 2nd high crossing at 116.02. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 122.16. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 93.58. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 82.72 would open the door for additional short covering gains and a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 88.30. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.72. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 88.30. First support is March's low crossing at 51.89. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last-week's rally, April's high crossing at 2.007 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.823 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.007. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.108. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.705. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.649.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.88.
The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 27th high crossing at 111.88, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.08 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is April's low crossing at 107.92. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound was slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2322 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3042. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2322. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.1438.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends last-week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.0234 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0234. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight following a two-day bounce off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.71 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.71. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.96. Second support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020 decline crossing at 0.0943 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 1st high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends last-week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1674.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1788.80. Second resistance is the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1674.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1630.70.
July silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.005 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.005. Second support is April's low crossing at $13.935.
July copper was lower overnight but remains above the 38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 2.3291. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are still possible. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2458 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4066. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2458. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.9795.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at $3.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.39 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.39 3/4. Second resistance is the March 20th high crossing at $3.60 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.25. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.12.
July wheat was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends last-week's decline, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.71 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4. Second support is 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.13 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.08 1/2-cents at $4.85 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $5.09 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $4.68 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.51 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.18 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight as they extend last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off the March 25th high, March's low crossing at $8.29 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.81 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.81 3/4. Second resistance is the March 25th high crossing at $8.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.38 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $8.29.
July soybean meal was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $305.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $298.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $291.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, April's low crossing at 26.17 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.31. First support is the April 2nd low crossing at 26.17. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $0.55 at $43.73.
June hogs closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $40.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $47.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $41.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at $40.70.
June cattle closed down $0.18 at $86.30.
June cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $69.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.72. First support is April's low crossing at $76.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at $69.29.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.80-cents at $119.28.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $120.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $95.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $120.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.79. First support is last Monday's low crossing at $103.62. Second support is monthly support crossing at $95.50.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends a two-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 13.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.29 would renew the decline off March's high.
May cocoa gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday leaving a two-day island bottom. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.07 tempers the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above April's high crossing at 24.28 would open the door for additional gains near-term If May renews the decline off February's high, the October-2018 low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.57 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.29 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.90 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
The market will be looking at todays crop condition report from the USDA to see if conditions deteriorated for the HRW crop in the Plains after the hard freezes cause SOME damage.
How much?
We need more time........several weeks to see how well/poorly the wheat responds but the burned/killed parts of the plants will be visible now and should show up a bit in the crop report.
I will guess just a few % increase in the p/vp in KS/OK/TX and possibly NE.
TX was the most developed and the panhandle had a couple of hard freezes and temps stayed below freezing for a very long time.........which could have increased the damage.