KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W%
Chain Store Sales, M/M%
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.77M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 270100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +8.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading signaling a second day of losses for the index following a historic fall for oil, as investors brace for a fresh round of earnings reports and weighed the impact of overnight developments.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8089.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9003.03. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 9384.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8505.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8089.32.
The June S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2657.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2921.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2921.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3081.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2780.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2657.01.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March 12th high crossing at 184-07 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 177-14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 3rd high crossing at 182-31. Second resistance is the March 12th high crossing at 184-07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 177-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-03.
June T-notes were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.154 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 139.175. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.154. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.005.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was sharply lower in overnight trading as it extends both the decline off April's high.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 9th high crossing at 33.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 36.04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 11.79. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.65.
June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline to a new contract low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, the October-2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 49.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 2nd high crossing at 116.02. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.73. First support is the overnight low crossing at 72.67. Second support is the October-2001 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 49.30.
June unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the overnight decline, March's low crossing at 51.89. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 82.72 would renew the rally off March's low and open the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 88.30. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.72. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 88.30. First support is March's low crossing at 51.89. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.154 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.846 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2.108. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-low crossing at 2.154. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.705. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.649.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-week's low, the April 6th high crossing at 101.03 is the next upside target.If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 101.03. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 103.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.88.
The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off the March 27th high crossing at 111.88, March's low crossing at 106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the March 27th high crossing at 111.88. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is April's low crossing at 107.92. Second support is March's low crossing at 106.71.
The June British Pound was sharply lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2359 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2758. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3042. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2359. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 1.2174.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends last-week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.0234 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.0566. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is April's low crossing at 1.0234. Second is March's low crossing at 1.0138.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the April-13th high crossing at 72.24. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the overnight decline, the March 31st low crossing at 69.73 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.71 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 72.71. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 73.79. First support is the March 31st low crossing at 69.74. Second support is March's low crossing at March's low crossing at 68.20.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020 decline crossing at 0.0943 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 1st high crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 0.0943. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1681.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1788.80. Second resistance is the October-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1798.10 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1681.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1633.10.
July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.099 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $16.252. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at $17.237. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.099. Second support is April's low crossing at $13.935.
July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2529 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3999. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.4380. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2529. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.9795.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline due in large part to lower crude oil prices. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If July extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at $3.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.37 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.37 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.17. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.12.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.49 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.71 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.23 3/4. Second support is 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $5.13 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.17-cents at $5.02 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $5.14. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.19. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.75. Second support is April's low crossing at $4.67 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $5.51 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.18 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.13 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight taking out March's low crossing at $8.29 as they extend last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off the March 25th high, psychological support crossing at $8.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.25. Second support is psychological support crossing at $8.00.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $304.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $298.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at $288.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 25.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.97 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 27.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.19. First support is the overnight low crossing at 25.55. Second support is March's low crossing at 25.02.
Thanks tallpine!
Corn may have put in a significant low today.
Potential for heavy rains for the southern and eastern belt is growing in week 2. I think it took us off the lows today.......but there is very high uncertainty.
2 week totals below from the last GFS ensemble.
