@kannbwx

USDA sees 2020 U.S. production of #corn & #soybeans rising substantially over the 2019 levels. These are good numbers to keep in mind today since tweaks to the 2019/20 crop are possible, and NASS has conducted its area survey since the 2020/21 figures were first unveiled.

Using the NASS March area survey and the yield and harvested assumptions from the February outlook, 2020/21 #corn production would be about 15.95 billion bushels, and #soybeans would be 4.12 billion bushels.

All trade expectations for Tuesday's USDA reports. Trade is looking for:Largest U.S. #corn carryout in 20/21 since 87/88Smaller U.S. #wheat crop than last yearLower output of corn/#soybeans in #Brazil/#ArgentinaYOY increases in world corn/soy/wheat stocks

@kannbwx

2m

USDA U.S. ending stocks, 2019/20 and 2020/21: Old-crop #corn well below expectations but #soybeans well above.

#Wheat larger in both years, but new-crop soybeans lower than expected. New-crop corn right around the trade guess.

3m

USDA did not touch 2019/20 #Argentina or #Brazil #corn production, but #soybeans came down a collective 1.5 mmt. 

USDA also bumped 2018/19 Brazil soy to 119 mmt from 117 mmt. USDA 2020/21 BR/AR soy: 131 mmt/53.5 mmt BR/AR corn: 106 mmt/50 mmt

CROP PRODUCTION

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0520.txt

13m

USDA's world ending stocks came in higher than trade expectations for both years on #corn and #wheat and for old-crop #soybeans.

 New-crop soybeans were well below expectations, even with a 131 mmt crop in #Brazil. #China's domestic soy consumption seen rising 7.2 mmt in 20/21.

7m

Trade estimates for U.S. #wheat production were pretty close to what USDA published today. A 1.866 billion bushel crop would be the smallest in 3 years.

USDA Reports Summary

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2020/05/12/usda-releases-may-crop-production

LIVESTOCK

Beef and pork supplies were adjusted lower in the May WASDE report with total projected beef supplies at 29,376 million pounds, while pork supplies totaled 28,913 million pounds. This is an adjustment lower of 1,717 million pounds of beef and 1,597 million pounds of pork compared to April levels. This accounts for 94.47% of beef and 94.76% of pork supplies compared to April estimates.

Beef supplies are at 94.9% of 2019 levels, while pork supplies projections are estimated at 99.17% of 2019 levels. These adjustments focus on the industry challenges in meat procurement during the COVID-19 crisis and will likely continue to adjust short-term supply levels.

Animal price levels for the second and third quarter were also adjusted lower in the cattle market with steer prices falling $6 to $10 per cwt from Aprils report release, while barrow and gilt price estimates increased $1 to $3 per cwt per cwt from the April report.

Given the concern of continued strong animal production, while processing schedules remain under pressure, these moves are not out of line with overall market expectations.