Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:47 p.m.

Welcome to May...........18th 

HUGE PATTERN CHANGE will feature MUCH WARMER weather during the last 10 days of May!  

This very warm/humid weather could help lessen coronavirus survival times in late May!

                Game changing?-Summer kills COVID-19    

Latest COVID-19 numbers:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.

Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!


Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                        Go to "hazards"      

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                        Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning





Highs today and tomorrow.



By metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:50 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


 Last cool(not cold) shot for May early this week, then a huge pattern change as we heat up as this week progresses.



By metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:50 p.m.
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Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

Reds will be increasing.

Pattern change to much warmer, accelerating late this week.



By metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:51 p.m.
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Surface Weather features day 3-7:

System in the Southeast is very interesting.  Arthur is out to sea.


By metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:52 p.m.
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Tropical Storm Arthur!



By metmike - May 17, 2020, 11:59 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Some areas with at least moderate rains.

Rains picking up Plains/Upper Midwest next weekend, where some places will welcome it. 

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:


By metmike - May 18, 2020, midnight
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Excessive rain potential.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



By metmike - May 18, 2020, midnight
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook




By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:01 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Static map

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:01 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to  survive longer.

Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.

It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out April 23rd.......we do know this now with COVID-19. 

Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:02 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:02 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.                                                              




Drought Monitor for conus




Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:04 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Last Wednesday: Prominent upper level ridge in the Southeast..........very warm. Several members have some northern stream action and cooler temps in the Midwest/Northeast.

Thursday: Upper level ridge S/SE.  Will any northern stream cooler air near the surface be able to sneak south of the border?

Friday: Big spread in solutions. Cooler today, less southeast ridge on the average

Saturday: Benign, zonal, west to east flow.

Sunday: Ridging southcentral. 

Monday:  Very Warm. How much rain??? Will a zone of heavy rains set up north of a heat ridge in the South with a strong Pacific jet stream?

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 02, 2020 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:04 a.m.
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Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:


By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:05 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Last: Sunday: Added the 1 week map first to show the powerful positive anomaly/upper level ridge, centered in Northwest North America with a textbook coupling downstream  to the impressive negative anomaly(upper level low) in the Northeast US to maximize a very strong north to south component in air masses from high latitudes,  dropping thru Canada and penetrating deeply south into the US.

At the end of 2 weeks, the maps below  show this to weaken substantially. 

Monday: Same as yesterday.

Tuesday: WOW! Look at the change from the first maps, 1 week out and very cold from a ridge in NW North America coupled with the very impressive upper level trough and negative anomaly in the Great Lakes to Northeast.......morphing to modest POSITIVE anomalies in the Southeast half of the US by the end of 2 weeks. The top 2 maps are for day 7, the 2 maps after that are for day 14.......MUCH milder and turning wet.

Saturday: Positive anomaly much of the country.Much warmer and wet.

Sunday: Widespread warmth. Positive anomaly in the East 1 week out.

Monday: Positive anomalies and warmth dominate on this model...but look at the very powerful positive anomaly in the high Arctic in 1 week! But that weakens greatly and shifts farther away.

Wednesday: Negative anomaly off the Southeast Coast late week 1.  Very warm late week 2.

Thursday: Week 2 looks warm. 

Friday: Changing and unstable.

Saturday: Warm. Mostly positive anomalies in the US.

Monday: Positive anomalies and very warm for much of the country.

1 week out below

2 weeks out below

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product




By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:05 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.


Last  Sunday: AO is dropping into negative territory right now. Towards the end of 2 weeks, its back near 0.. NAO is negative and also increases later in the period. The negative values coming up are from the very chilly pattern/near record cold as Arctic air is flushed south from high latitudes to mid latitudes this week and thru at least the early parts of next week.

Tuesday: AO and NAO not as negative, going close to 0 during week 2 as the cold pattern breaks down. PNA near 0 too.


Saturday: Still slightly negative AO and NAO suggest potential for cool air far north PNA near 0/a tad positive.

Sunday: Slightly negative AO and NAO may not be able to overcome the upper level ridging that builds in. 

Monday: The models in the US are very warm but these indices, that especially dial in higher latitude relationships with the mid latitudes, suggest the risk of chilly air pushing south of the US border.  AO and NAO both negative. PNA slightly positive.

Wednesday: Indices close to 0 but with a pretty wide spread.............meaning uncertainty. 

Thursday: AO and NAO slight negative and PNA slight positive provide a  cooler risk to the very warm forecast, especially in the northern tier. 

Saturday. Indixes pretty close to 0. NAO a tad negative with slightly elevated chance for cooler than models.

Monday: Indices close to 0, not a factor. They become less useful in the warm season as they are best used for northern stream indicators. 


By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:05 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - May 18, 2020, 12:06 a.m.
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Previous discussions:

                                                       By wglassfo - May 6, 2020, 12:16 a.m.            

Hi Mike

Remember back a few days you warned me about cold weather.

I replied the 1st 24-48 hrs is the most sensitive, for newly planted seed, to cold weather


Our local agronomy people are warning everybody it might be best to not plant Fri and Sat.

We will plant some tomorrow then the planters get shut down for a couple days. We will have to move stuff such as pumps and hoses inside plus sprayer etc. Anything that might get damaged with a record frost. Will have portable heaters in the water van etc.

What a pain, plus my other son has to have emergency eye surgery to morrow. We shall see how grand father, who can hardly walk and grand son will cope the next few days

Except for one terrible Mid June frost that killed almost knee high corn and emerged soybeans I have never worried about frost in the spring.



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - May 6, 2020, 2:59 a.m.            



Saturday morning looks like the coldest for you.

upper 20s likely, possibly mid 20s. I hope everything turns out ok for you.



Hi Mike

May 11

Remember I said we stopped planting last week as cold moisture soaked into the seed causes cold shock, 1st 24-48 hrs., as we were warned by seed Co's as when to stop planting

Well I can't wait for all that heat to arrive although rain could be a problem

Raining last mite [May 10] turned to snow over nite

Cold all week and all spring

Snow still covered the ground at 8 A:M this morning

No idea of temp.

Snow was enough proof it is cold

Wonder how far south cold weather may be???

We are 70 miles NE of Detroit, with barely a sprout on corn with no plastic




                Re: Weather Thursday            


                By wglassfo - May 14, 2020, 2:09 p.m.            



Hi Mike

Your weather maps do me no good

I get 1/2 off the maps on screen the same 1/2 as the home page, which just happens to be the western 1/2

Going to the links doesn't work as I don't have a state  or location, in the USA

Even Mich. is not much good to me, as upper Mich is a world of difference

If you could add a bit about the Lower Great Lakes, occasionally, would help

You did ask about freezing temps which was helpful

I mentioned this before and you said nothing could be done to open up the maps to full screen


                                  Re: Re: Weather Thursday            


                By metmike - May 14, 2020, 2:33 p.m.            


Actually Wayne, I think I  know how to fix your problem.

Go to the top right on your computer and hit a button with 3 dashes on it so that it gives you a drop down menu with a ton of choices.

Find the choice "Zoom"  hit the - sign at least one time to reduce from 100% to 80%.

If that doesn't completely fix it, hit the - button again to reduce from 80% to 67%.

Let me know if this works.



                Re: Weather Thursday            



                By wglassfo - May 14, 2020, 5:38 p.m.            


Tks Mike

That worked although now I need my glasses


                Re: Re: Weather Thursday            


                By metmike - May 15, 2020, 2:09 a.m.            


Is this better Wayne (-:





By mcfarm - May 18, 2020, 10 a.m.
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weather seems to be always a challenge the lat few years esp. 26 degrees took some crop. got done planting last Wed. nite, maybe? Lots of rain and water standing now. Have been cold and wet constantly since Marc h. These windows of just a few days to plant thousands of acres are not appreciated in the least. Not a good way to put your entire years crop at risk by being pushed that hard, but it is what it is. Progress seems to be spotty with N Iowa and S minn getting done way early while many areas have been in for a fight to get planted again this year.

off topic but watched part of "the last dance" about the Bulls and Jordon. Was so very impressed with Jordon and his honestly in answering how he lived and played. you do not get answers like that often in this namby/pamby hypocritical world....Good for Jordon

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 1:28 p.m.
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Updated Monday at Noon!

By metmike - May 18, 2020, 3:25 p.m.
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By metmike - May 18, 2020, 3:26 p.m.
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