It's a depression....not a recession
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Started by GunterK - May 18, 2020, 7:59 p.m.
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By TimNew - May 19, 2020, 3:32 a.m.
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The numbers are no doubt the worst I've seen and there is plenty of "pain"  we've yet to bear..  

But when you look at the definition of a recession,   you see 2 or more quarters of economic contraction or negative GDP.   I'm not saying we won't see that.  We'll certainly see 1 qtr  of significant contraction. Maybe two.  Beyond that?  Remains to be seen,   but energy consumption is picking up, significantly.  Can retail numbers be far behind?

I guess my point is,  it's way to soon to start calling this a depression.  Will we hit one?  Maybe,  but I doubt it.


Side note:  Author Michael Snyder has been writing about economic collapse since at least 2013.  He'll be right, some day, as all perma-bears will be.  Further, his chances of being right are better now than they have been.  There is no doubt a lot of people will be feeling pain, some more than others. But how will things look in a year?  I suspect much better than now.  

By wxdavid - July 11, 2020, 4:47 p.m.
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 someone argued with me yesterday    the USA   having  a fill  blown  recovery 

By bear - July 12, 2020, 12:14 a.m.
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if you don't mind a couple comparisons...

the depression of the 1930's lasted quite a while, and felt like it lasted for a decade. the dust bowl and tax increases made it longer.   unemployment of 25% was not just a short term thing of a few months.  

today, we have unemployment that momentarily came close to that,  but it may quickly get closer to the levels of just a recession.  (if you can trust official numbers of 11% currently).  

all depends on whether we open up soon,  or shut down for longer.


the depression of the 1830's was much deeper, but only lasted a few short  years.  some sources claim that close to 90% of factories/founderies shut down in new england in the late 1830's.   but the birth of the railroad building boom meant a fast end to that depression (my opinion). roughly 1837 to 1842...


if we open up, and get everyone back to work,  then it will not be a long depression,  just a short sharp recession.  but if we don't open soon,  then this could morph into a long depression.  

just my very limited naive opinion.   


always remember,  our depression of the 1930's started much earlier in europe.  the depression in europe started in the 1920's, and was created by the good people who gave us the versaille treaty.  it led to the rise of nationalism, fascism, the nazi party, and eventually WW2 and the holocaust. 

never underestimate the horrible unforeseen effects that may arise from a depression.   

By TimNew - July 12, 2020, 6:44 a.m.
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someone argued with me yesterday    the USA   having  a fill  blown  recovery

And this is somehow relevant to comments made in May, How?   Must have taken you some time to dig back a few months.  Kudos on such a worth while effort.