The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated on Tuesday a large crude oil inventory draw, of 4.8 million barrels for the week ending May 15.
Analysts had predicted an inventory build of 1.151 million barrels.
In the previous week, the API estimated a large build in crude oil inventories of 7.58 million barrels. Meanwhile, the EIA’s estimates were for wildly different, with the industry body reporting last week that the inventories had fallen by 700,000 barrels.
WTI was trading up on Tuesday afternoon prior to the API’s data release, but the day had already seen swings from a gain for the day to a loss, then back to a gain as the demand picture looks a bit rosier than has in past weeks on the last day of the June futures contract—a day that last month was plagued with uncertainty and negative oil prices.
Oil production in the United States has now fallen from 13.1 million bpd on March 13 to 11.6 million bpd for May 8, according to the Energy Information Administration—a drop of 1.5 million bpd.
The API reported a draw of 651,000 barrels of gasoline for week ending May 15—compared to last week’s 1.911-million-barrel draw. This week’s draw compares to analyst expectations for a 2.134-million-barrel draw for the week.
Distillate inventories were up by 5.1 million barrels for the week, compared to last week’s 4.712-barrel build, while Cushing inventories saw a draw of 5 million barrels.
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5 million barrels for the week ended May 15, marking a second weekly decline in a row. That contrasted with a forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts for an average increase of 2.4 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a decline of 4.8 million barrels, according to sources. The EIA data showed that crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla. storage hub fell by about 5.5 million barrels for the week. Gasoline supply unexpectedly climbed by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose 3.8 million barrels. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for a supply decline of 3.5 million barrels for gasoline, while distillate stocks were forecast at 3.2 million barrels higher.
The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5 million barrels for the week ended May 15, marking a second weekly decline in a row. That contrasted with a forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts for an average increase of 2.4 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a decline of 4.8 million barrels, according to sources. The EIA data showed that crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla. storage hub fell by about 5.5 million barrels for the week. Gasoline supply unexpectedly climbed by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose 3.8 million barrels. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for a supply decline of 3.5 million barrels for gasoline, while distillate stocks were forecast at 3.2 million barrels higher.
This weekend’s Memorial Day holiday could be a test for the gasoline market, depending on whether drivers in reopening states hit the road and then keep on driving.
Gasoline demand is about 30% below where it was before states shut down in March. As the economy reopens, analysts are looking at traditional measures of supply and demand, but also some newer metrics like Apple mobility data and GPS-generated traffic congestion data.
The summer driving season traditionally kicks off on Memorial Day weekend, but this year it will be far from normal. AAA said it will not issue a travel forecast for the first time in 20 years because of the impact of the coronavirus. Normally it estimates the number of people who would be traveling over the holiday weekend. Last year, 43 million people traveled, and the lowest point was during the financial crisis in 2009, when just 31 million traveled.
“I think Memorial Day is going to be the future litmus test for human behavior,” said Tran. He said if people who have been at home go out and take part in activities, they may feel emboldened to go out more, if they are still healthy two weeks later, the period of incubation.
“There’s improvement but over the past 10 days, 15 days, we’ve really flatlined. it’s really societal behavior, not state level policies that are driving gasoline demand. After many of these states opened up, you go out for dinner that first weekend but you don’t need to go out for dinner four nights in a week,” he said. Commuting to and from work had accounted for as much as 28% of gasoline demand prior to the shutdowns.