Just a little some thing that aways tweaks my interest in a conversation such as the following
Here is an example taken at random
One sports contestant tells the news broadcaster he/she will give it a 100% effort
Contestant number two, not to be out done in the bragging or PR department says he/she will give it a 110% effort. Ah ha I just one upped you. Wrong. You just told me you are an uneducated fool.
This always makes me wonder who was asleep during math class
100% is the total of everything or anything
If your glass is completly full, your glass is 100% full
[Don't get nervous on me and spill anything]
The only way to increase tthe amount in a glass is to get a bigger glass. At which point the comparison is not equal, if both are completely full
100 % is the most of anything
Now you can compare some thing that is not equal, by using a number that is more than 100% such as this example
This stk went up 100% in 9 yrs
That stk went up 110% in 10 yrs
Now you can do the math and decide which is the better stk during the past number of yrs.
These people just show they were asleep in math class or they are uneducated
Just thought I would mention something that catches my attention, and how numbers with percentages catch many people sort of asleep.
People that watch charts of stks or any price need to know what percentages really mean. The biggest number may not always be the biggest, until you have the total sum of info, and then you can decide, using your own math
Great points and example Wayne!
How about a stock or commodity FALLING by 110%?
Have you ever seen that?
If it goes to ZERO, it's down 100% right?
Remember when oil spiked to -$40/barrel in April?
How do you compute the % of that drop?
Jim, Tim, metmike and a few others will remember that day for the rest of our lives!
US crude tumbles to 18-year low
50 responses |
Started by metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:43 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50726/
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 1:57 p.m.
CLK hit 19c.
I can't imagine when it last traded that low........OMG it traded 1c!!!
Crude traded to 1 penny!!!! For real, that just happened.
Somebody bought and sold crude for 1 cent.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By TimNew - April 20, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
Pretty soon, they'll be paying us to fill our tanks.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By Jim_M - April 20, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
IT WENT NEGATIVE!!
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
Holy Cow...Holy Cow, Crude is trading negative!!!
The low has been -$1.43
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 2:17 p.m.
OK, what planet are we on?
CLK has spiked to -$3.70.
This means that somebody can buy a contract of crude, get 1,000 barrels of oil AND get paid $6 for it..........last price
Make that -$7 on the last trade.
There is no place for it to go, so they are paying to get rid of it!
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By Jim_M - April 20, 2020, 2:24 p.m.
And that contract expires tomorrow correct? So there could be one more day of this bloodletting?
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By Jim_M - April 20, 2020, 2:29 p.m.
-$35.60!
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 2:29 p.m.
We often see it the day BEFORE expiration.
Am thinking this is a squeeze. A bunch of traders caught long who are screaming uncle and panic selling or being forced out by massive margin calls with nobody wanting to buy the falling knife.
Crude is down $33 and is negative $14 -$14/barrel for the front month May.
Make that -$26........yeah this is a long squeeze, the opposite of a short squeeze that causes upward spikes from lack of supply.
Long squeezed almost never happen because when you have alot of supply, prices tend to be stable and not volative.
-$37.........
-$40 down $56+ on the day
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By Jim_M - April 20, 2020, 2:34 p.m.
Historic! We may never see anything like that again.
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Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 2:38 p.m.
Looks like -$40.32 is going to be the low, since the main trading session with the huge funds that were trapped long is over.
Yes, we just bounced to $-28.00
Who ever thought that a +$12 bounce in crude.............normally in a bull market takes many days. would happen in a few minutes........and we would still be deeply negative.
Good chance that the lows are in.
The ones getting out when the price was in double digit negative territory were FORCED out with a squeeze. Forced liquidation from margin calls and other factors with expiration tomorrow.
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Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 2:46 p.m.
Yes Jim. Traders that were watching this, will remember it forever.
Hopefully from the sidelines.
I really can't imagine normal speculators selling crude when it was negative.
The selling was an exhaustion/panic driven squeeze of the longs that HAD TO GET OUT no matter what.
Surely there were some big, high risk traders willing to buy and sell down here.
How many that deal in cash trades and actually have storage, bought crude today.............got paid $30,000 for 1,000 barrels and got the crude too?
That is like Twilight Zone trading (-:
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Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By TimNew - April 20, 2020, 3 p.m.
Before today, I honestly thought it could not go below 0.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: US crude tumbles to 18-year low
By metmike - April 20, 2020, 3:05 p.m.
It looks like today may be the last trading day for CLK-the May, front month contract, not tomorrow as I suspected, so this makes more sense.
The new front month, June never traded below $20 and has bounced back to $21, down just $4 on the day.
So this was for sure a squeeze with longs, possibly some long lived, having to get the heck out on the last trading day.
An option for some that are in the business is to stay in after expiration, then they are subject to delivery because the contract on paper(futures) can then be exercised and then the seller, can exercise delivery of the product.
So if you are still long those 1,000 barrels of May crude in that 1 contract that you had which just expired and didn't get out, you better have a place for the 1,000 barrels of crude that is coming your way.
If you are not in the business and have no place for it, it will cost you alot of money to pay somebody to take those 1,000 barrels of unwanted crude off of your hands.
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The April 20 historic oil price crash that sent the prompt May WTI contract plunging to the unheard of price of negative $40 per barrel now seems like ancient history with oil back in the $20s (at least until the June contract matures in 10 days) and stocks are delightfully levitating, but to one trader what happened on that fateful Monday will remain a permanent scar of how everything can go terribly wrong in the blink of an eye. Syed Shah, a 30-year-old daytrader, would usually buy and sell stocks and currencies through his Interactive Brokers account, but on April 20 he couldn’t resist trying his hand at some oil trading. Shah, working from his house in a Toronto suburb, figured he couldn’t lose as he spent $2,400 snapping up crude at $3.30 a barrel, and then 50 cents. Then came what looked like the deal of a lifetime: buying 212 futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate for an astonishing penny each.
What he didn’t know, as Bloomberg's Matthew Leising reports, is that oil’s first plunge into negative pricing had broken the Interactive Brokers platform, because its software "couldn’t cope with that pesky minus sign, even though it was always technically possible for the crude market to go upside down."
As a result, crude was actually trading at a negative $3.70 a barrel when Shah’s screen had it at 1 cent; the reason: Interactive Brokers never displayed a subzero price to him as oil kept diving to end the day at minus $37.63 a barrel.
At midnight, Shah some very bad news: he owed Interactive Brokers $9 million. He’d started the day with $77,000 in his account, expecting that his biggest possible loss was 100%, or $77,000.
It turned out to be 116 times that number.
"I was in shock," the 30-year-old told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "I felt like everything was going to be taken from me, all my assets." Not that Shah had anywhere remotely close to $9 million in assets.
Only hours later, when he finally pulled himself from his computer, did the 30-year-old realize that oil had settled at the never-before-seen price of negative $37.63 per barrel. What did that mean for the hundreds of contracts he’d bought? He frantically tried to contact support at the firm, but no one could help him. Then that late-night statement arrived with a loss so big it was expressed with an exponent.
Wanye
How about this:
If stocks were 1000 and they increased to 2100,isnt that an increase of 110%?
But we seem to know what giving 110% means-braggers license I suppose.
John
Hi 7475
You are correct
Many things can be expressed as plus or minus 100%
That is because there is no limit to the range of stk or other assets traded daily re: value up or down unless the exchange has a limit. Unfortunately oil does not have a limit. That means you have to know what you are trading and the rules of up or down limits
The same can be said for the Dow being expressed as a % increase or decrease
Lets say the Dow went down 3% but your stk may have lost $9.01 which could be more or less than the average expressed as 3%
That is why stks, commodities FX or any market needs some math to know Your position
Some follow averages as a guide but traders have to do the math to know what their basket of stks etc is worth
Then options as hedges get into the equation
I am sure professional traders or us smaller traders will either have a spread sheet or we do the math ourselves
I would want everything I have a position with percentage and real dollars at the end of each line of my position in my basket. I would also want to know what the sum loss or gain was for the day
20 cent loss on penny stk is greater than 20 cents on Berkshire to use an extreme example
The percentage loss on Berkshire would have how many zeros after the deciminal point?? while the penny stk might show 40% loss
Trading is not for the inexperienced as oil showed us
I always thought corn could not go to zero. Now I don't know although I can find a place to store my physical corn. Paper trading of corn is different re: storage as we saw with oil
Then you can get caught in pump and dump
A good example of pump and dump is the sale of more stks of Hertz. The SEC is complicit in stealing from Robinhood day traders as there will be a day when you won't be able to find a greater fool to buy your Hertz stk The SEC is supposed to regulate this sort of thing but not this time. Hertz bankers and creditors who want the stk sold were very careful to add the wording of risk can lead to losses in trading of this stk. This is their protection against future liability. It gets more complicated than that but what I have told you about Hertz is the part you need to know.
If you want a lesson in pump and dump watch Hertz stks in the coming weeks/months. If you own Hertz stk now might be a good time to sell.
I doubt anybody on the forum owns Hertz bonds but the opposite is true. Hertz bonds were worth something like 10 cents on the dollar, but now are up to 35 or maybe higher. Don't hold me to the exact bond numbers as my memory is bad. The reason for bonds want to go up is the hope the sale of stks will generate some cash to pay something on Hertz bonds/debt
If Hertz does sell 500 million or even 1 billion of new stk that is a lot of cash to pay creditors. And guess who will pay the creditors when the dust settles
That will be a daily math class in percentages, with all that kind of stuff going on, for some time
Who would have thought Hertz stks would go up when Hertz is going BK.
Just shake my head along with a lot of other traders and spectators of which I am a spectator.
Then you have Avis and other car rentals. I have no idea how well positioned the other rentals might be for cash
Great opportunity to learn what percentages mean as these stks might be volatile, or even go to no bid