Hello June 19th!
Friday update: Week 2 has MUCH MORE heat on the GFS products!
NG: Hotter in week 2 but the highest heat is still NOT in the East and South which would maximize the bullishness..........it's in the Plains, spilling into the Midwest.
Decent rains coming for grains,... for some key areas, especially the Central Cornbelt.
Week 2 is warmer/hot......how much rain is the big question? The GFS keeps the rains coming with the heat.
June 17th update: Early La Nina right now! My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Latest COVID-19 numbers.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52243/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
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Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Heat at the very start of this period, especially East/Northeast that rebuilds in the Southwest after that.
Modest cooling Midwest.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
On the cool side in the center during this particular period...potentially heating up during week 2 in that same location.
HOT in the West. Some of that heat may move east during week 2.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Slow moving front(s) the source for big Cornbelt rains the next several days...............cooler air, especially Upper Midwest..during this period.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Big WELCOME rains coming IA to S.Plains! N.Plains and Eastern Cornbelt may get short changed.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | F |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Turning more humid but still low humidity for June right now!
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
LOOK HOW FAST WE DRIED OUT IN THE S.PLAINS.............FLASH DROUGHT!
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Friday: Vast majority obliterate the heat ridge, minority still have it.
Sunday: Majority DO have a heat ridge but the placement is all over the map. The average of all these offsetting solutions does not necessarily represent most of them. Great uncertainty. Decent chance for a heat ridge............somewhere.
Wednesday: Impressive heat ridge building on the majority of members late week 2. This is the hottest model right now. Would turn bullish for ng and/or grains if this is the right trend.
Thursday: Heat ridge not quite as strong today but a huge disparity in solutions. A minority have a major heat ridge, where the majority have the complete opposite(weak troughing).
Friday: Very strong agreement on a heat ridge/dome....................somewhere. Huge disparity on location. Slight majority favor the S.Plains to S.Rockies... ..on this model.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 04, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Wednesday: Not as hot in the E/SE as the Canadian model.
Friday: Positive anomalies shift to off the Pacific NW Coast and Southeast Canada. Weak anomaly in most of the US by late week 2 does NOT favor heat in the Midwest!
Sunday: Week 2 is heating up now. New positive anomaly week 2 in Southeast Canada to Upper Lakes/Northeast.
Wednesday: Negative anomaly at 1 week over the Midwest/Great Lakes.....very cool temps. Positive anomaly in Central Canada at 1 week, shifting south to the Hudson Bay area at 2 weeks, so the Upper Midwest and N.Plains will heat up........on this model.
Thursday: Just like Wednesday's solution! The heat will shift from the West to the N.Plains during week 2.
Friday: Negative anomaly at 7 days is over the Great Lakes with its cool air. Replaced quickly at 15 days by a positive anomaly that will have heat, centered from far SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. July will start out HOT in the NorthCentral USA back westward.
1 week out below
2 weeks out below
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Friday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. However, the PNA is solidly positive. Warm/hot and dry in the West if often a result..........how far east would that be? Is this part of a La Nina signal?
Sunday: AO/NAO slightly negative. PNA solidly positive. Doesn't match that well with the actually weather maps/pattern.
Wednesday: AO/NAO around 0. PNA solidly positive.
Thursday: Near 0 AO. NAO drops a bit negative late week 2, not favorable for heat in the East. PNA solidly positive until late week 2, when it drops hard.
Friday: Near 0 AO, slight negative NAO late, PNA solidly positive but dropping late. Favors heat in week 2 to be in the Plains or westward.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Long range outlook............updated June 17th
My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Total precip anomaly for Jun so far v root zone soil moisture. Hopefully these advertised rain events happen. Root zone not an issue currently for the majority. #corn#soybeans
