5th day of Summer 2020!
Wednesday: Not Bearish natural gas! Heat ridge has been backing up/west the last few days...........to the Rockies by the end of week 2........not as hot in the East and Southeast as last week or where people like but still plenty of heat. Some solutions want to bring in more heat ridge(Canadian model was big on this overnight).
Decent rains coming for grains,... for some key areas. So far, rains have been disappointing. ..but more to come in the next week+. Some areas will miss. MORE heat in week 2 is more bullish but there's just too much rain right now to get very bullish.
There's a chance for conditions from the Gulf to not be ideal for moisture transport northward if the flow has enough westerly component vs from the south. IF that would happen, THEN it becomes bullish grains.
Corn rating was +1% beans -2% Spring Wheat -6%!
June 17th update: Early La Nina right now! My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Latest COVID-19 numbers. ...........went up last week.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52243/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Heat that started out West, spreads eastward across the country during this period.
Cooling Northwest USA.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Hot West, shifts bodily/big time eastward!
Compared to average, temperature the temperature disparity will be greatest along the northern tier.......some cooling Northwest US.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Slow moving/stalled front, the source for "some" Cornbelt rains the next week.
Rains will not be enough in some places(because the heat will be gobbling up soil moisture at an accelerated pace) but above average in many places
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
New rains developing now. T-storm clusters move from northwest to southeast from the N.Plains/Upper Midwest to the Central Cornbelt to the Eastern belt.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Learn About Weekly Precipitation
Current Dew Points
Less humid! Deep moisture has been shoved to the deep South.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Wednesday: Impressive heat ridge building on the majority of members late week 2. This is the hottest model right now. Would turn bullish for ng and/or grains if this is the right trend.
Thursday: Heat ridge not quite as strong today but a huge disparity in solutions. A minority have a major heat ridge, where the majority have the complete opposite(weak troughing).
Friday: Very strong agreement on a heat ridge/dome....................somewhere. Huge disparity on location. Slight majority favor the S.Plains to S.Rockies... ..on this model.
Saturday: 588 height contour was at Chicago yesterday, now, with the weaker and farther southwest heat ridge, it's 300 miles to the southwest , just north of St. Louis. As a result, the average of all the solutions, noted below is COOLER for the Midwest. However, close to half/50% of the individual solutions have the center of a major heat ridge dominating much of the Midwest. So there is big time uncertainty and we could get hotter again on models in a flash.
Sunday: Not as hot as Friday. The average is composed of individual solutions that have a heat ridge in many different places. Uncertainty and probably transient.
Tuesday: After being cooler the last several days, the Canadian model is a bit hotter/stronger with the upper level ridge in the S.Plains. The 588 dm height contour is north of St. Louis again about where it was back on Saturday and farther north than than the previous 2 days.
Wedneday: MUCH hotter today and this model is the HOTTEST! 588 contour is now NORTH of Chicago and on day 16 we have our first 594 dm contour in Arkansas with the major heat ridge. A minority of solutions still disagree with this and the other models are not nearly this bullish but are leaning in this direction.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 10, 2020 00UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Saturday: Several members have a huge dome.............others northwest type flow in the Midwest to Northeast.
Sunday: Same disparity without many solutions having the center of the heat ridge in the Midwest. ...........where active flow/perturbations could trigger decent rains.
Tuesday: Active northwest flow in the Midwest on the majority of solutions for the GFS Ensemble. .....but several have the heat ridge stronger shoving the jet stream out, with more heat as a result.
Wednesday: Heat ridge Southwest to S.Plains on many solutions but still northwest flow over with perturbations and rain dropping from the N/C.Plains into the Midwest. Will the heat ridge continue to build and shove the jet stream and northwest flow farther north like the Canadian model? Or is the Canadian model out to lunch?
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Wednesday: Not as hot in the E/SE as the Canadian model.
Friday: Positive anomalies shift to off the Pacific NW Coast and Southeast Canada. Weak anomaly in most of the US by late week 2 does NOT favor heat in the Midwest!
Sunday: Week 2 is heating up now. New positive anomaly week 2 in Southeast Canada to Upper Lakes/Northeast.
Wednesday: Negative anomaly at 1 week over the Midwest/Great Lakes.....very cool temps. Positive anomaly in Central Canada at 1 week, shifting south to the Hudson Bay area at 2 weeks, so the Upper Midwest and N.Plains will heat up........on this model.
Thursday: Just like Wednesday's solution! The heat will shift from the West to the N.Plains during week 2.
Friday: Negative anomaly at 7 days is over the Great Lakes with its cool air. Replaced quickly at 15 days by a positive anomaly that will have heat, centered from far SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. July will start out HOT in the NorthCentral USA back westward.
Saturday: We should note that major positive anomalies in June are heat ridges in the middle latitudes. They are really moving around right now with a transient type pattern. At day 7, a big one in Eastern Canada, another just off the Pac Northwest Coast. At day 14, in SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. The Gulf Coast is one of the few places with average to modestly negative anomalies. This suggests that the heat will be farther north. Though the models have lots of rain during this period, if we saw negative anomalies increase along the Gulf Coast, they could impede the deep moisture return northward and we would see a drier heat from the west vs air masses with more of a south to north component, loaded with juicy GOM moisture. The day 14 pattern is clearly very warm to hot(at times) for much of the country. Not as hot as yesterday but even air masses coming from S.Canada with any cold fronts will be warm and quite dry.
Tuesday: Strong Positive anomaly at the end of week 1 around the Hudson Bay means heat in S.Canada to just south of the border. It migrates west and weakens in SouthCentral Canada with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast US which makes heat unlikely in the Southeast US if that verifies.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly center around the N.Great Lakes area makes heat in that area a given. It will be widespread from the N.Plains to the Northeast. Temperature in the Southeast will be closer to normal.
1 week out below
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Saturday: Slight negative AO/NAO cool from mid week 1 into week 2. PNA positive......strong dry influence.
Monday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. PNA is positive and likely connected with a dry pattern.
Wednesday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. PNA is positive which is a dry signal.
Friday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. However, the PNA is solidly positive. Warm/hot and dry in the West if often a result..........how far east would that be? Is this part of a La Nina signal?
Sunday: AO/NAO slightly negative. PNA solidly positive. Doesn't match that well with the actually weather maps/pattern.
Monday: Negative AO, slight negative NAO but the NAO starts solidly positive and crashes to negative during week 2. Could signal a pattern change.
Wednesday. Nothing noteworthy, especially with this being Summer and these indices work best with the northern stream in the Winter.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Long range outlook............updated June 17th
My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Iowa Flood Center@IowaFloodCenter
·
June 1-22 rainfall amounts vary considerably by countywide average, ranging from 1 in. to above 10 in. Normal June precipitation varies between 4.3 in. to 5.3 in. IFC Researcher Antonio Arenas; Data source: https://water.weather.gov/precip/download.php
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I'm gaining confidence in a building heat ridge/dome late in week 2, from the S.Plains and points northeast and even east.
This will defeat rain making in a large area and create 100 degree heat in areas close to the center.
It could define the pattern for July!!!
Eric Snodgrass Long range forecast 6-24-2020
Eric discusses heat in Siberia and July weather
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9UES87ClP8&feature=emb_rel_pause
Another wonderful discussion from Eric
Thanks very much cutworm!