KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 25, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 472.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1920.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 504.8K)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 1508K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -58K)
Continuing Claims (previous 20544000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -62K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -5%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -15.9%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -3.7%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous -6.8%)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -17.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -16.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -7.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -5.8%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -5.4%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2892B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +85B)
11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -25)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous -2)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -19)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous -2)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review results
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest supervisory stress test results
Friday, June 26, 2020
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +10.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -13.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1%)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 72.3)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 65.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.2%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.3)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors worried that rising coronavirus cases in many American states will set back economic recovery. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,850.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,850.90. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 24,843.18.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that at the very lease a downside correction is possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 9368.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 10,296.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 9368.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9316.45.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's rally, the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2956.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2956.53. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 2804.20.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-04/32's at 178-02.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 171-27. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 167-18.
September T-notes closed up 45-pts. At 138.285.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 21st high crossing at 139.160 would mark an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 138.070 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
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August crude oil closed lower on Wednesdayon rise in coronavirus cases and a third straight weekly climb in U.S. supplies.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $34.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $34.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $31.99.
August heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $125.34. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.97.
August unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 109.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 101.41.
August Henry natural gas was lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 1.519 on the weekly continuation chart is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.821 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.748. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.821. First support is today's low crossing at 1.652. Second support is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 97.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.76. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70.
The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 113.97 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at 111.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.51.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2546 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2813. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2340. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0517 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0695. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0517. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0413.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 73.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 73.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.34.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 0.0945 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
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August gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1733.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1796.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1733.20. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at $1671.70.
July silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the May-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.405 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.788 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.405. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 18.950. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 17.015. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.788.
July copper closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 256.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at 270.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 256.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 244.02.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed down $0.01 1/4-cents at 3.23 3/4.
July corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the April 7th high crossing at $3.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 7th high crossing at 3.40 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.
July wheat closed down $0.05 3/4-cents at $4.80 1/4.
July wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2019 low crossing at $4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.90 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.02. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.76. Second support is the September-2019 low crossing at $4.68 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $4.31.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, last-September's low crossing at $4.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.36 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.49 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $4.26. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $5.16 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.11 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.11 1/2. Second support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Third support is May's low crossing at $5.02.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $8.70 1/2.
July soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.63 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.64 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.51.
July soybean meal closed up $0.20 at $286.50.
July soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This week's closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $287.10 signals that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above June's high crossing at $292.80 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is June's high crossing at $292.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $285.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.
July soybean oil closed down 52-pts. At 27.65.
July soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 28.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.03. Second support is the May 14th low crossing at 25.70.
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July hogs closed down $0.95 at $45.95.
July hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $49.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at $45.75. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.90 at $96.30.
August cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends Tuesday's rally, the May 28th high crossing at $101.30. Closes below the June 15th low crossing at $93.58 would renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at $91.20.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.48-cents at $132.73.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off last-Monday's low, June's high crossing at $136.73 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $128.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.67 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the March-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Friday's low, June's high crossing at 25.08 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at 22.08 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 58.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
I'm gaining confidence in a building heat ridge/dome late in week 2, from the S.Plains and points northeast and even east.
This will defeat rain making in a large area and create 100 degree heat in areas close to the center.
It could define the pattern for July!!!