KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 29, 2020
10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 69.0)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -21.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -33.8%)
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -49.2)
Mfg Production Idx (previous -28.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday after Texas and Florida close bars again as coronavirus cases spike, while bank stocks sink on stress tests. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,925.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,925.49. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 24,843.18.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9870.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 10,296.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 9368.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9368.76.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2961.46 is the next downside target. If September renews last-week's rally, the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2961.46. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 2804.20.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 27/32's at 179-02.
September T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the May 15th high crossing at 180-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 16th crossing at 174-29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 179-08. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 171-27. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 167-18.
September T-notes closed up 85-pts. At 139.055.
September T-notes closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's high, the April 21st high crossing at 139.160 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 138.070 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the June 15th low crossing at $34.66 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 15th low crossing at $34.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $32.27.
August heating oil closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.95 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $125.34. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $107.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.37.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 109.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 109.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.74.
August Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 1.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.783 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.683. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.783. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.517. Second support is the psychological support crossing at 1.500.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.66 is the next upside target. If September resumes this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 97.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.66. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.56 is the next downside target. If September renews this week's rally, June's high crossing at 113.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. First support is Monday's low crossing at 111.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.64.
The September British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2551 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2551. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2320. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0533 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0695. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0533. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0420.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.43 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is today's low crossing at 72.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.43.
The September Japanese Yen closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 0.0945 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1734.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1796.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1736.60. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at $1671.70.
July silver closed higher on Friday as it extends the May-June trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.405 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.872 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.405. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 18.950. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 17.015. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.872.
July copper closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at 270.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 245.40.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed down $0.01-cent at 3.16 1/4.
July corn closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at $3.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.34 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $3.13 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.
July wheat closed down $0.13-cents at $4.73 3/4.
July wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $4.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.98 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.98 1/4. First support is the September-2019 low crossing at $4.68 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.60 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $4.20.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it renewed the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.32 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.45. First support is today's low crossing at $4.16 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.12 1/2-cents at $4.98 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's sharp decline, weekly support crossing at $4.89 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.17 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.98 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.89 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $8.66.
July soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.51 3/4.
July soybean meal closed down $3.60 at $281.90.
July soybean meal closed lower on Friday while extending the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $281.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $288.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $292.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is today's low crossing at $281.80. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.
July soybean oil closed down 20-pts. At 27.34.
July soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 28.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.06. Second support is the May 14th low crossing at 25.70.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.68 at $45.25.
July hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $48.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.82. First support is today's low crossing at $44.98. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.05 at $96.13.
August cattle closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 15th low crossing at $93.58 would renew the decline off May's high. If August renews Tuesday's rally, the May 28th high crossing at $101.30. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at $91.20.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.45-cents at $132.80.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $136.73 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at $128.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is June's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 9.98 would confirm that a low has been posted.
September cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Friday's low, June's high crossing at 25.08 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at 22.08 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.95 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.90 is the next upside target.
October cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.57 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Could get wild in July!
This week 3-4 forecast for the 2nd half of July would be mega bullish grains and ordinarily mega bullish natural gas. NG has the worst fundamentals in history but this much heat may be hard to ignore........if the models/forecast is correct.
Corn was loaded with over 300,000 contracts of fund shorts and added big this week.
If we hit long lasting heat during pollination and later into August with heat fill AND turn dry, the crop will deteriorate/crop ratings will fall and crop size estimates will drop to possibly plunge if we have a huge dome in place.
There is NO WAY that the funds will not cover a big enough portion of that massive short to cause a double digit price spike. Even if COVID cases increase and the stock market falls hard.
I will caution that weather forecasts going out more than 2 weeks have low skill and I usually never make them for that reason but am making an exception this time because so many things seems to be lining up for a major, widespread heat ridge over much of the country the rest of the Summer.
We should note that the NWS 8-14 day has started to take out rains, which after this next week, may go away under and close to the dome of warm air aloft and heat at the surface. On the periphery of the heat ridge, we can still have clusters of t-storms that ride around it.
Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
Valid: 11 Jul 2020 to 24 Jul 2020 Updated: 26 Jun 2020 | ||
Please provide comments using the online survey. | ||
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental) | |
Here's the latest week 2 forecast from the NWS. The heat should continue and we may gradually see less and less rain, starting from the S/C Plains and working eastward or even northeastward.
8 to 14 Day Outlooks | |
Valid: July 04 to 10, 2020 Updated: 26 Jun 2020 | |
Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
Related Topics: Prognostic Discussion, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Model Guidance Used, 6 to 10 Day |
These upcoming week 1 rains killed the grains today, along with increasing COVID cases/dropping stock market and seasonally, risk premium coming out and prices dropping at this time of year.
If the forecast continues on track, wetter near term days will be replaced with drier days at the end of the forecast and the forecast will grow more bullish in early July.
It often doesn't go that way but if it does in this case, grains have some upside, possible huge potential in July.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
New rains developing now. T-storm clusters move from northwest to southeast from the N.Plains/Upper Midwest to the Central Plains/Western cornbelt then Central Cornbelt to the Eastern belt.
This will be the pattern into early July.
For this time of year, a better than usual rain forecast/map!
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971