NG for 6/28/20+
16 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - June 28, 2020, 5:21 p.m.

12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri in CDD:

GEFS -1

EPS  +5 


12Z Sun vs 0Z Fri in CDD:

GEFS: +3

EPS: +4


 Friday was near unchanged in most active contract, August.

Overall, on the basis of wx alone, I'd call this slightly bullish and overall it is quite warm as it is slightly warmer than Friday overall and is quite warm in the Plains to the Midwest/NE. The SE is near normal rather than AN, largely a result of wet soils though it is quite humid and still seasonably hot which itself is not bearish.

But as always, especially in recent months due to COVID, it remains to be seen whether or not  NG opens up.

Comments
By metmike - June 28, 2020, 5:54 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much for getting us started on the new week again Larry! Your ng posts are the best!

I agree completely with that and will guess we open higher.......potential for a gap higher open if the market focuses on just the heat.

1.569 was the high on Friday.

Here's is the latest weather.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54722/


Here was the previous ng thread. I'll try to add the relevant stuff to this thread this evening:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/53840/

By metmike - June 28, 2020, 6:56 p.m.
Like Reply

We opened a bit higher but a tad below Friday's highs but are just above those highs currently after an hour of trading.


The Dow and CL are down just a bit but behaving, so not that much of a factor at the moment.

By metmike - June 29, 2020, 11:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Hot as a Firecracker as they say!

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54771/

NG having one of its biggest days in a long time because of the advertised, widespread heat coming up which will cause major demand for AC using ng to generate the electricity.


By metmike - June 30, 2020, 1:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Tuesday weather.....still HOT!


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54833/

By metmike - July 1, 2020, 1:54 p.m.
Like Reply

Let the (modest)  heat wave begin! Here's your first weather discussion/maps and more to kick off the new month: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54920/


Not as hot(or as bullish for NG), especially later in week 2 on GFS products.

By metmike - July 2, 2020, 1:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Last weeks EIA:

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 19, 2020   |  Released: June 25, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 2, 2020 


   +120 BCF in mid June is off the charts bearish!                                                                                                                                             

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/19/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region06/19/2006/12/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East619  586  33  33   491  26.1  515  20.2  
Midwest716  688  28  28   528  35.6  571  25.4  
Mountain165  156  9  9   124  33.1  157  5.1  
Pacific299  290  9  9   242  23.6  284  5.3  
South Central1,212  1,173  39  39   888  36.5  1,019  18.9  
   Salt372  358  14  14   263  41.4  304  22.4  
   Nonsalt840  815  25  25   625  34.4  715  17.5  
Total3,012  2,892  120  120   2,273  32.5  2,546  18.3  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,012 Bcf as of Friday, June 19, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 120 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 739 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 466 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,546 Bcf. At 3,012 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - July 2, 2020, 1:24 a.m.
Like Reply

      


            https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jul 02, 2020 10:30  120B
Jun 25, 2020 10:30120B106B85B
Jun 18, 2020 10:3085B85B93B
Jun 11, 2020 10:3093B93B102B
Jun 04, 2020 10:30102B110B109B
May 28, 2020 10:30109B107B81B


By metmike - July 2, 2020, 1:26 a.m.
Like Reply

7 day temps for the period of that last report:



Previous comment before the report:  When its relatively cool compared to average in the Summer/cooling season,  where all the people live, you don't use much electricity for air conditioning that is generated by burning natural gas..........and you have big injections into storage.

It was hot in the Plains but not as many people live there.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20200619.7day.mean.F.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 2, 2020, 1:28 a.m.
Like Reply

7 day temps for Thursday's report:

Warmer where most of the people live and cooler where they don't, so the injection will not be so huge.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20200627.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2020, 10:30 a.m.
Like Reply

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 26, 2020   |  Released: July 2, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 9, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                    +65 BCF Bullish!                                                      

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/26/19)
5-year average
(2015-19) 
Region06/26/2006/19/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East639  619  20  20   518  23.4  541  18.1  
Midwest740  716  24  24   559  32.4  596  24.2  
Mountain173  165  8  8   132  31.1  162  6.8  
Pacific304  299  5  5   252  20.6  287  5.9  
South Central1,222  1,212  10  10   903  35.3  1,025  19.2  
   Salt368  372  -4  -4   260  41.5  299  23.1  
   Nonsalt854  840  14  14   643  32.8  726  17.6  
Total3,077  3,012  65  65   2,365  30.1  2,611  17.8  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of  independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,077 Bcf as of Friday, June 26, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 712 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 466 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,611 Bcf. At 3,077 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dash

By metmike - July 2, 2020, 11 a.m.
Like Reply


            https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

         Latest Release   Jul 02, 2020    Actual65B     Forecast78B     Previous120B








Jul 02, 2020 10:3065B78B120B
Jun 25, 2020 10:30120B106B85B
Jun 18, 2020 10:3085B85B93B
Jun 11, 2020 10:3093B93B102B
Jun 04, 2020 10:30102B110B109B
May 28, 2020 10:30109B107B81B


By metmike - July 2, 2020, 12:47 p.m.
Like Reply

Hot weather Thursday, still bullish at the moment but there are a few, significant minority solutions that have some cooling later in week 2:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54973/

By metmike - July 3, 2020, 10:44 p.m.
Like Reply

Plenty of heat and bullish weather!


Saturday weather discussion:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55072/

By metmike - July 5, 2020, 3:41 a.m.
Like Reply

Huge drop in the CDDs in all the 0z models.

Still pretty hot overall but not AS hot now with several day much colder than before.

By metmike - July 5, 2020, 5:47 p.m.
Like Reply

Sort of Sizzling Sunday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55146/


We got hotter on Saturday, then took out a bunch of heat on the overnight 0z runs for the end of this week/next weekend..............then today, added some back with week 2 maps still looking very hot.........on most models.

Overall, maybe a tad "not as hot" as our early close on Friday? But only because of the surprise cooling at the end of this week, which is temporary, not a pattern change.

Where will the dome be at the end of week 2???

Means everything to the key, high population centers that use up the most electricity for AC use generated by burning NG.


I'll guess a slightly lower open from the 1.750 close on Friday.


The EIA on Thursday was actually bullish but the increase in COVID is always a wild card.

Seasonals in July are extremely weak for ng.

By metmike - July 6, 2020, 7:39 p.m.
Like Reply

Marvelous Monday to you! Here's your weather(HOT in week 2!): https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55193/