Analysts see all U.S. #wheat acres up slightly from March intentions but down 1% from 2019. Spring wheat is seen down a hair from March and below last year, but winter and durum acres are expected to rise a bit from intentions.
Analysts see cotton+small grain acres down 2% from March but up 2% from 2019 and up 4% from the 5yr avg. #Cotton acres seen down 4% from March, and the trade estimate would be the smallest cotton area in 3 years.
A lot to take in here: summaries of June stocks & acreage report day results for #corn, #wheat & #soybeans since 2005, along with the price response. Many observations to make, incl. analysts on a 4yr streak of under-guessing corn acres. They nailed soy 15-18, but missed 19.
U.S. all #wheat area is down 1% from March intentions. Acres rose from March in North Dakota, making it the top wheat planter this year. Plantings were lower than in March for Kansas and Montana, the #2 and #3 states.
Analysts had their worst miss of June 1 #corn stocks since 2011, as they were 273 mln bushels too low heading into Tuesday's reports. But the price action followed acres, which the trade over-guessed by the largest amount since at least 2005.
U.S. #corn plantings fell by 5.1% between USDA's March and June surveys. That is by far the largest move in either direction in the Freedom to Farm era (1996-present). That decline tops 1995 (-4.4%) and is the largest for March-June since 1983 (-13.6%).
Interesting note about the 1983 decline in #corn acres from Prospective Plantings to the June Acreage: the June number was pretty dead on to the final. Acres rose 0.1% from the Acreage survey into the final number.