KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 6, 2020
9:45 AM ET. June US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 37.5)
10:00 AM ET. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 50.1; previous 45.4)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 41.0)
Prices Idx (previous 55.6)
Employment Idx (previous 31.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 41.9)
10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 46.28)
ETI, Y/Y%
11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 35.2)
N/A UNCITRAL Annual Session
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.7%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -9.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -5.7%)
10:00 AM ET. May Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 47.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.4)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 758.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 308.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3359.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 533.527M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.195M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.521M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.199M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 174.127M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.593M)
Refinery Usage (previous 75.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.353M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.995M)
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous -68.7B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight on signals of an economic recovery. Non-farm payrolls expanded by 4.8 million in June according to the U.S. Labor Department said last week. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 9728.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10504.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 9728.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9529.27.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends last-week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3148.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2990.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3148.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2990.03. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 2925.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 180-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 179-17. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.216 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 139.140. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $34.66.
August heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $112.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.87. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $112.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.87.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $111.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $132.53. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $111.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.15.
August Henry natural gas was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.745 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.939. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.686 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.745. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.939. First support is June's low crossing at 1.517. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.71 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $97.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.28. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71.
The September Euro was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at $114.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58. First support is June's low crossing at $111.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.04.
The September British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2514 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2514. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2745. First support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2083.
The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading as it extends the June-July trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497 would signal a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0659. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0444.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target.If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.70 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is June's low crossing at 72.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.70.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 0.0912 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1741.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1807.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1757.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1741.20.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.125 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at $17.175 would confirm a downside breakout of the May-July trading range. First resistance is June's high crossing at $19.035. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.125. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.258. Second support is June's low crossing at $17.175.
September copper was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7818 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6590 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.7690. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7818. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6590. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5072.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.63. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.38. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.04 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.04 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17 3/4. First support is June's low crossing at $4.79 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this year's decline, long-term support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74. First support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at $4.12.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.78 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $312.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $312.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.10 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends last-week's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, June's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.08. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 27.42.
Thanks tallpine!
Bullish weather in week 2 and beyond for grains.............but we added some rains this week which are keeping a lid on the gains.
The widespread heat ridge is bullish ng...............but we've added a cold front late this week that is keeping a lid on gains in this market.