election futures
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Started by bear - July 28, 2020, 1:02 p.m.


the futures market here is showing a trend in favor of the dems.

the odds of the dems taking both chambers of congress are increasing.

and the market still shows the dems probably taking the WH

(of course these markets were wrong in the last election)

By metmike - July 30, 2020, 9:08 a.m.
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This is an awesome link and one that we should monitor for the next several months....thanks.

It says a great deal about expectations. I would think even more accurate than polls.

Looks very bad for pubs right now, despite trumps finally taking a better COVID position.

By mcfarm - July 30, 2020, 10:05 a.m.
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so is this "market" truly open? I guess if its just another poll so to speak from academia, when are they going to give up? They do study after study. poll after poll and at 930pm on last election  nite they that witch with a 96% chance of winning...really? How could some body {academia} with all the power and all the money at its disposal be so wrong? Yes there is one answer, they wanted it to be.

By Richard - July 30, 2020, 12:55 p.m.
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there are people with huge sums of money that want Trump out and they are influencing this election. There thinking is that it will discourage Trump supports if it looks like they are the minority and will help Biden. It is the same reasoning and thinking that Greenspan used. He thought that if people were constantly told that there was NO INFLATION, that they would think that is true and not raise prices and it could become self for filling. 

Having said all of that, this time people with huge sums of money are really serious about getting Trump out and are willing to spend and lie and cheat and do anything they can do accomplish there mission and knowing that they succeed at what they do, Trump has a big fight against him.

Knowing what these people are thinking, I too, do not think Trump will win, because of events which will happen in the future. If these events do not happen, then Trump has a good chance to win. 

One last comment, on the thinking of the people who want Trump out. This Virus is NO accident. Its disruption of our economy is NO accident. Dr Farci telling Trump that it will die down during the summer and other LIES also NO accident.

By bear - July 30, 2020, 2:18 p.m.
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i have never tried to get a contract on this market.  maybe some of you should try.  

so, mcfarm, try to get a contract, and see what the rules are for the contracts.  

i have assumed that anyone can apply to get a contract with that market.  

my opinion,  the market for congress is probably more accurate than the market for the WH.

i think the prez election will be far closer than what the election futures are predicting.   here is why i say this... i think people my parents age are more likely to vote conservative, and less likely to take part in election futures, or gambling markets, or polls, etc.