Long awaited Q2.GDP to be released at 830
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Started by TimNew - July 30, 2020, 7:01 a.m.

Atlanta Fed forecasts 32.1.  Much improved over the early June forecast of 53.8 but I missed on my hope that it would go slightly below 30 from a few weeks ago.

The pundits are saying equities are down in anticipation of the GDP report,  but I'm thinking we can only have a pleasant surprise as bad numbers are priced in.  I think the real wild card today is Jobless Claims which will be released at the same time.


By TimNew - July 30, 2020, 8:37 a.m.
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Q2 GDP @ -32.9,  Jobless Claims @ 1434K + 12K.   Probably not gonna be a good day for equities.



*Note.   Edited the GDP number to include the "-" sign. I'm sure everyone knew what I meant.  We'll probably never see a +32.9 GDP,   but I woulda bet a lot we'd never see a -32.9. These days,  seems the operative phrase is "All bets are off"..

By metmike - July 30, 2020, 9:09 a.m.
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Thanks Tim!

By bear - July 30, 2020, 2:25 p.m.
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equities reflect what the market thinks what will happen in the economy a few months from now.  the market would not go down today because of a report about gdp over the last 4 months.  

i think the market would go down currently if folks think that authorities will not open up the economy as fast over the next few months.  

By TimNew - July 30, 2020, 2:40 p.m.
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Personally,  I think the market is disappointed in Jobless Claims.   The Employment Situation next week will mark an interesting day, one way or the other.   I expect another outsized gain which will quell the fears surrounding Claims.  

The numbers continue to show that the unemployed are over represented by lower income earners.  While they are the least able to weather it, they are not the market movers.

Finally, as far as government constraints on the economy, I think the vast majority of the rank and file are pretty much done with that and are prepared to go cautiously forward.  A strong government effort to curtail that will not be received well, IMO.