KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 30, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected -34.8%; previous -5.0%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +0.2%; previous +1.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous -3.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous -6.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1435K; previous 1416K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +109K)
Continuing Claims (previous 16197000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1107K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2547.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2665.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 616.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3215B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +37B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, July 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.9%; previous -4.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous +8.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.0%; previous +1%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)
ECI, Y/Y% (expected +2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 44.0; previous 36.6)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 72.4; previous 78.1)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 72.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.1)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -9.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight ahead of the busiest day of second-quarter earnings season, with increasing concerns over a slow economic recovery and a possible second wave of the coronavirus pandemic hitting the U.S. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,678.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,134.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,678.40. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,134.64.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3200.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3200.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3121.36.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-07.
September T-notes were slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.117 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.117. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.293.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.32.
September heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $129.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.76. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at $115.64.
September unleaded gas was lower overnight while extending the June-July trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews last-week's rally, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.88. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.989 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.801 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.989. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.042. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $94.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.53. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $93.12. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.
The September Euro was lower overnight and working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 18th high crossing at $119.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58. Second resistance is the March 20th high crossing at $119.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.90.
The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2686 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3022. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2808. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2686.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0730 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.0990. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0827. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0730.
The September Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.08.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0938 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0955. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0938.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:August gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1848.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1974.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1893.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1848.70.
September silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.956 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $26.275. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.800. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.956.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8684 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8684. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.6984.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Thelow-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.26. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $5.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.45. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at $8.71 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is July's low crossing at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.05.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $1.15 at $53.05.
August hogs gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at $58.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.35. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.
August cattle closed up $0.95 at $101.85.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.74.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.38-cents at $142.08.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday leaving Monday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $143.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.26.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 11.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 26th high crossing at 23.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.93 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October sugar closed unchanged on Wednesday as it extends the June-July trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 12.40 or below July's low crossing at 11.27 would confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last-week's decline, the June-15th low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Tons of rain southern Midwest, dry northern half. New crop exports(to China) massive.
For natural gas, cool weather the next 10 days, then, maybe it warms up.