Pretty impressive for corn and beans.
The numbers here are the ACTUAL amounts being shipped vs the amounts being sold that we get on Thursday Morning.
The huge/record sales recently in c/s have come from sales for next year and would not affect shipments for a long time.
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As of July 30, the United States had sold a record 26 million tonnes (986 million bushels) of #corn & #soybeans to export in 2020/21, which begins September 1. The makeup is 58% soy (556 mbu) and 42% corn (430 mbu).
To clarify, this is a record end-of-July sales pace for the next marketing year. There are still many more sales that will need to come during 20/21 to have a strong export year. I am pretty sure this is record - could only check back to 1999 - but can't imagine it's not.
Adding to this further..... #China accounts for 52% of the 20/21 #corn sales and 57% of those for #soybeans.
The market becomes somewhat immune to the daily sales - almost accepting them as part of the routine. But this sales pace is extreme and it would be hard to sustain. That is why a lack of daily sales (if realized) should *not* necessarily be viewed as bearish.
metmike: The plunging dollar is also making our exports cheaper.
I have been reading a lot of china's crops got destrroyed this growing season
From what I read china plants rice 3 times in a season. The 1st and 2nd both got flooded out. And of coarse they could not plant the 4rd crop because of flooding. i have seen pics with water every where, in rice paddies. If reports of the Tree Gorges Dam possibly failing, even though they are releasing water as fast as possible, this would give some credibility to the flooding problem and how wide spread the flooding might be. Also, officials would not allow pictures to be taken about water soaked, moldy corn in storage
Then you move to the NW corner of china and they have drought which has ruined large acres of corn and wheat. The to top it all off, they have a locust problem in the SE [I think that is the location]
XI threatened provincial govenors to meet their grain quota which seems a bit silly to me. As a farmer I know what weather can do to crops, so what is XI thinking. They did organize efforts to attack the locust problem but that seems a bit hopeless to me. Then army worm attacked any healthy corn plants with pictures of leaf feeding stripping the leaf to shreds I expect wheat would have the same army worm problem but did not see any pics.
China said they have 3 uses for grain.
Human consumption
Animal feed
Industrial use
The human population will get # 1 priority but they are trying to re-build a diminished hog herd, from the effects of the swine disease [what ever it was]
It appears that china has to import grains every yr but this may be a yr for increased imports, no matter what other tensions may be between china and the USA
It looks like SA may not be able to supply china or if they do, then other countries who import from SA will have to come to USA markets for grain
I got most of this info from google over a period of time. What is true or not true I do not know but several sources seem to agree that china had more than the usual grain production problems, in 2020. It seems that flooding is not in dispute given the Three Gorges Dam problems, which would affect rice production. The rest is the best I could find.
Just another little known thing that will cause some issues. It is estimated Iowa lost 25% of all grain storage capacity, both farm and commercial bin space. I don't know what amount of crop damage occurred during the storm but there might be a problem, finding storage in places further from Iowa. I know there was a lot of crop damage but I think Iowa normally produces 5.5 billion bu of corn. Add in the other places of drought, wind, water damage thus far this yr and it adds up. More than just Iowa was damaged with the storm although Iowa took the brunt of the storm. There will be little to no bin replacement this yr due to a shortage of building materials
Increased demand and less production
Interesting times
Exports sales:
Today's grain rally can't be all about good sales can it? Especially a day after the USDA is projecting a record crop.
jim,
It's not just today's sales.
Sales like this have been going on for numerous weeks now. Record sales...........enough to buy the excess production and then some if they continue. It's been all new crop 2021 sales.
The weather turning dry is helping a bit, even though its late. The market trading great weather for weeks and a record crop for weeks and probably this bearish production report just peaked the bearish production news for quite some time, if not for the season............so traders will not sell if they don't expect even MORE bearish news to push us even lower.
What would be the more bearish news after that report?
Also, the August crop report day marks the Summer lows very frequently during years when the growing conditions were good.
A secondary low hits during harvest, after the late Summer bounce higher.
Talk of up to 10 mil acres of crops destroyed in Iowa; Eric Snodgrass shows satellite image:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWimsmGlBpg&feature=emb_rel_end
Jim,
Look at the 20/21 sales below. WOW! Especially for beans.
USA had sold nearly 18 million tonnes of #soybeans for 2020/21 as of Aug. 6, which I show narrowly edging 2014 & 2013 as the largest-ever new-crop soy book for the date. #China accounts for 57%. New-crop #cotton & meal sales are 
YOY, but all others are up, incl. #corn.
And it is not just #China unevenly carrying the weight in 2020/21. In 2014, 58% of the new sales as of Aug. 6 were to China. In 2013 that was 73%. That is important because strong sales to other buyers are needed, too. They might buy around 40% of the total, give or take.
Yes, I noticed the sales, but we all also know that most of that soy went to feeding pigs, which they have what...half as many now. I don't know....I'm not sold on any long term rally.
Great information cutworm!!!!!
Thanks for sharing it again.
Wayne,
This is what I think too. China crops this year in many area may be short.
They are buying now to replace the difference.
I know their southern areas had major flooding earlier this year.
Iowa officials
If it ain't a bean, it's a tater.....or...if it isn't one thing, it's another.
Thanks for the link to the video.
Thanks cutworm!
When I get back home I’ll show you a map of the China precipitation the last 30 days. Too wet in the south, too dry in the north.
They will not be having great yields this year even with the help of the extra CO2.
This is likely why they’ve been buying massive amounts for next year to replace their short crop.
China looks like it was too wet in the Southern growing areas.
There growing area is from around 110-140E and 30-55N.
30 day rains below
90 day rains below
DERECHO---MetMike---awaiting your insights--TIA
10 responses |
Started by tjc - Aug. 11, 2020, 9:31 a.m.
