Conab boosts #Brazil's #corn crop to a record 102.1 mmt on a stronger safrinha harvest. Corn exports are unchanged since the export pace/shipping lineups don't warrant an increase. Exports of #soybeans up 2 mmt to 82 mmt. Rest of the soybean balance sheet still missing.

All trade estimates for Wednesday's USDA reports (due at 11 am CDT - 1600 GMT). U.S. yield, average estimates: #corn 180.5 bu/acre, #soybeans 51.2 bu/acre

Massive, record yields

Corn Production Up 12 Percent from 2019 Soybean Production Up 25 Percent from 2019 Cotton Production Down 9 Percent from 2019 Winter Wheat Production Down 2 Percent from July Forecast 
Corn production for grain is forecast at a record high 15.3 billion bushels, up 12 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 181.8 bushels per harvested acre, up 14.4 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 84.0 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast, but up 3 percent from the previous year. 
Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, up 25 percent from 2019. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.3 bushels per harvested acre, up 5.9 bushels from 2019. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from 2019.

#Corn 181.8 bu/acre#Soybeans 53.3 bu/acre

U.S. #corn ending stocks come in lower than expected, but new-crop #soybeans are bigger. #Wheat stocks down on +25 mbu exports. 20/21 corn and soy exports both up 75 mbu. Ethanol unch. in both years. 20/21 corn feed/res +75 mbu.

U.S. acres reported as prevented by state, August 2020 versus August 2019 and the average of August 2016-2018. Yellow shows states where 2020 is 100% or more above the 16-18 avg. 60% of Aug 2020 pp was #corn, 14% #soybeans, 13% #wheat, 5% #rice, 4% #cotton, 3% #sorghum.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

U.S. planted+failed acres reported in August: 2020: 226 mln 2019: 233.1 mln 2018: 245 mln 2017: 243.7 mln 2016: 245.2 mln Guessing that covid may have caused some delays in 2020 (FSA office closures, restrictions, etc.), which is why acres are much lower than even last year.

@kannbwx

USDA #corn yields by state. National seen at 181.8 bu/acre. New records are expected in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, among others. Comparing w/ 2016-2018 averages since 2019 was an outlier with lots of acreage problems. These numbers do NOT reflect storm damage.

USDA sees #soybeans reaching a new high yield of 53.3 bu/acre. That includes records in Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio. Keep in mind that these numbers do not reflect potential storm damage from Monday

@kannbwx

USDA's August 2020 soybean yields versus 2019 final. Similar to #corn, #soybeans had a lot of higher-yielding acres that were not planted last year, thus lowering the yields, especially in the major states.

World stocks/use for #soybeans is slightly lower than in July despite the huge U.S. crop due to increased demand in #China. 20/21 exports went up in the top 3 exporters. 19/20 Brazil exports @ 93.5 mmt (USA @ 44.9). FYI #Argentina & #Brazil are shifted to an Oct-Sep MY below.

USDA's local MY forecast for #Brazil exports is 81 mmt for 19/20 (Feb 2020-Jan 2021) and 84 mmt for 20/21. USA's 20/21 crop is seen at 120.4 mmt and exports at 57.8 mmt.