Last estimate as of Aug 7 was +20.5.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf
Thanks much Tim!
What's your take on this?
We're coming from an historic drop with far less impact than we'd feared, coupled with well targeted stimulus that may have been too expensive leading to the shortest tho deepest recession in history...
Different leadership may have yielded completely different results.. Or maybe I'm just biased. History suggests other.
of course this is a quarter over quarter model.
so, yes, economic activity is 20% higher than 2nd quarter. not 20% higher than last year.
imo, they should state it as 2 figures, one should be qt-o-qt, the other y-o-y.
so, the fact that the stock market is setting new highs, yet economic activity is more than 10% lower than last year... this is simply a reflection of the market anticipating inflation (from all that govt stimulus).
US GDP for fiscal 2019 was 20.43 trillion. 2020 21.44 TRillion