Will be interesting to see how much corn goes into the vp category in IA, maybe IL, from the Derecho event.
Maybe several %+ in IA?
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3420.txt
Corn and Beans both -2% in the gd/ex.
Both saw the p/vp +2%. This was mostly from IA, a tiny bit from IL.
August 18 correction: IA corn went from 8% p/vp from the drought to 17% p/vp. The +9% must have been mostly from the Derecho event.
IA beans, went from 7% p/vp to 12% p/vp.
Previous crop condition report to compare this one too below:
Iowa overview from the USDA
"Corn was 81% in the dough stage or beyond, almost 2 weeks ahead of the previous year and 5 days ahead of the 5-year average. Just over one-quarter of the corn crop is in or beyond dent stage, 11 days ahead of the previous year and 3 days ahead of average. Corn condition rated 59% good to excellent, a drop of 10 percentage points from the previous week and the lowest level this crop season.
Thanks Jim,
That's a pretty big drop but the question is "How big of a drop did the market expect?"
The likely, slightly lower open coming up shortly this evening suggests that many thought the drop would be even more.
Crop conditions for #soybeans are down 2 pts to 72% good/excellent as an 8pt drop in Iowa (to 62%) outweighed improvements in the Delta and Southeastern states.
1) Crop conditions and final yield are not totally linear! (see 2017 nationally) 2) Acres that are not harvested for grain do NOT figure into the yield. For example, yield might not fall much if most of the storm damaged acres were completely lost and not harvested.
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At 59% good/excellent, Iowa #corn conditions are the worst for the week since 2013. But at 62%, conditions for #soybeans are the second highest of the latest four years. Including the final yields too, but those come with a couple major caveats, esp. when considering 2020.
This report does NOT translate well on number acres affected.
Iowa and Illinois drop and is offset by NC?? I don' think so.
Currently over bought, probably dip into Thursday and then resume rally
Looks completely reasonable to me tjc!
We had 8 states with conditions that improved, 6 states with conditions that got worse.
The national crop got WORSE because IA, with its massive acres got weighted so heavily at -10.
Without IA/IL, maybe conditions would have been +1/2% for the US.
The p/vp in IA was +9% for corn, I made the following correction above, after first assigning that value as 5%.
August 18 correction: IA corn went from 8% p/vp from the drought to 17% p/vp. The +9% must have been mostly from the Derecho event.
That's going to be your corn that is severely damaged, especially the vp that went up +5%.
The corn that experienced green snap was a total, 100% loss and is probably almost all the 5%.
Some of the corn that was flattened, which didn't have their stalks snapped, can come back up enough to salvage, so even though the event may have affected more than 9% of IA, maybe less than half of that experienced a 100% loss.
Of course we will see only those pictures.
After an event like this, who shows pictures of the majority of fields NOT affected/damaged?
