The NASDAQ is working on a Key reversal day, (if it continues). This after going what I call parabolic curve.(My own defination) It has broken above an upward trending channel.
Lets see what happens.
Well as it turned out it wasn't a 1 day reversal yesterday , but it is a 2 day reversal. from a parabolic curve ( my name).
“Tech stocks, and the overall market, hadn’t really had a bad day since June, so this is a healthy breather. It was never just going to be a straight line up. But the long-term structural support for technology has not changed and support for equities has not either,” said Esty Dwek, head of global macro strategy for Natixis Investment Managers, in emailed comments.
Doubts about traction for further fiscal stimulus from Washington lawmakers may be one factor discouraging investors who have been betting on Republicans and Democrats striking a deal later this month to offer additional relief to American consumers and businesses. On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats and Republicans still have “serious differences,” following a brief phone call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, reports said.
Investors have also been calling for a rotation away from the leading tech stocks to the broader market in the hopes that it would strengthen the stock-market rally’s foundations.
“There is a sort of benign way that this excess can be corrected through a process of rotation,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, in an interview. She said positive economic data could lay the path for a more sustainable rally.
Thursday’s round of economic data continued to point to a steady recovery, though the prospects for the labor market were unclear ahead of Friday’s official jobs report.
New applications for unemployment benefits in the latest weekly period ending in Aug. 29 fell 130,000 to a seasonally adjusted 881,000 or lower than the consensus estimate of 940,000 but this was after the Labor Department said last week it tweaked its seasonal adjustment method amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The unadjusted or real number of initial jobless claims rose slightly to 833,353 from 825,761, indicating there was barely any change last week in how many people are applying for benefits.
In other data, a revised reading of U.S. second-quarter productivity rose 10.1%, while the trade deficit widened to $63.6 billion.
The U.S. IHS Markit final purchasing managers index for the service sector for August was 55, up from 54.8 in July, while the Institute of Supply Management’s service sector indicatorfor August fell to 56.9 in August from 58.1 in July. Any number above 50 indicates an expansion in industrial activity.
By most measures, the economy is still considerably weaker now than it was before the pandemic. Millions of Americans remain out of work, Congress is deadlocked over another financial-aid package, and many industries such as travel, tourism and entertainment are just a shell of their former selves.
Everyone talks about the breathtaking run-up in share prices, and of course the valuations of a select handful of high-profile U.S. companies, as the stock market brushes off the economic carnage of the pandemic to scale new records — but the rest of the market is also quite expensive, albeit for a different reason.
And that “bifurcation” raises a very important question for investors, argued Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors, in a Thursday note.
He observed that since the market’s pre-pandemic peak in February, the price-to-earnings multiples of what he dubbed the “FANMAG” stocks — Facebook Inc. FB, -4.19%, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -5.12%, Netflix Inc. NFLX, -4.81%, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -5.85%, Apple Inc. AAPL, -6.43% and Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -5.11% GOOGL, -4.78% have expanded by roughly 20%. Over the same period, the valuations of the rest of the S&P 500 SPX, -3.42% have expanded by a still respectable 15%-plus.
“But these two groups of stocks have gotten more expensive for completely different reasons,” he noted. “FANMAG’s P/E has risen because their ‘P’ (prices) has gone up faster than their ‘E’ (earnings), while the P/E for the rest of the S&P 500 has expanded because ‘E’ has gone down much more than ‘P.'” (see table below).
I use TQQQ, and SQQQ to trade The NASDAQ. It looks like no support till TQQQ gets to 125.
as of 10:53 the low in Tqqq has been 123.88
A great call Cutworm. Market was getting tired. Too Many banner months. Needed to shake out some. Sept will likely end on a positive, but we have a little more "cleanup"
The TQQQ looks like a Gap and Crap, at an upward sloping trend line (6 months long). With a double bottom with yesterday. Must hold above 123.65 to remain bullish
Still have a S&P target around 1,800. I am the only one correct on this posting. I said crash and burn before the decline started and here we are crashing and burning. Buying the dips today could make you money, ONLY if you are a short term trader. New lows for the year before new highs for the year.
I still say new lows before new highs and that a crash and burn is in the process.
Thanks Richard. Please keep a running commentary on this every day or two for the next few weeks. Also, let us know about 200+/barrel oil. And share your thinking as to why.
Thanks again.. So Much.
I'll bet you, $1.00 US, (One US Dollar) that we see $200 oil this year. Yes?
I'l take that bet Mr. Duke!
You can send check to your favorite charity!
Cutworm. - Sure. your on, but I really wish Tim would have spared a $1.00 to bet me.
David Ryan explains exactly what I was looking at when I started this topic. Well explained at 10:50 to 15:20
Your track record in betting on crude oil prices suggests that others might want to fade you (-:
28 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 27, 2020, 4:24 p.m.
metmike: This thread below was historic for MarketForum and for the worlds crude market. It's worth your while to read it again and remember this amazing event!
US crude tumbles to 18-year low
50 responses |
Started by metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:43 p.m.
then put your money where your mouth is. $200 WTIC this year. How about a $1 bet? Tim is scared shitless to make the bet and ran away. Maybe his wife refused to give him permission to bet me. How about you?
Please don't confuse my lack of response with being scared. I have faced far more than a 1 dollar bet without fear you silly little man.
Guys this thread is about a chart pattern that worked out in real time. Pay attention and focused.
Can't disagree CW. While I probably shoulda, I just couldn't let that comment go without a response. But I assure you, it was my last,
Just bringing this to the front. Sorry for trying to engage you in this silly chat, Tim. New lows for Stocks, New highs for Oil just ahead. Not sure which day the move starts, but when has that ever stop me from posting this before?
In the cup with handle pattern I discussed it seems that the handle has gone to low. Therefore something else is happing. A break below 10656 on the E-mini would indicate lower prices. currently 11502
YES! Exactly! Something is going on. New lows for the stock market right ahead of us. Timing? Maybe February 2021 bottom? Maybe? Around 1800 s&p? Only time will time but I am betting on it.
I will never talk about Israel/iran again. I am so besides myself with this idea. Maybe it will happen one life but most likely not mine.
This is literally the 10th time THEY really really really were going to attack Iran and now are not going to.
Trump/Deep State/Netanyahu all agreed that Israel would attack Iran between Nov 10 and Nov 16th. Because of what Trump appears to be criminals stealing of the election, he decided yesterday that he was NOT going to agreed to this attack and he would STOP it. Not only that, but he is going to do everything possible to make it much more difficult to attack after the elections. Goldman bought massive amounts of gold/silver and shorted stocks. if the attack was not happening, asap and has a real chance of not happening for many months, they needed to unload this trade and needed a cover for this. I am sure that the Vaccine is real close, but my guess is that they pushed the announcement up to give Goldman cover for gold moving $100. Like I said, this is the 10th time they really really really were going to attack and now they are not. I am out. No more. I quit. This is beyond stupid.
articles talks about all the things that Trump will do to not allow the iran deal to come back
I owe someone $1. Just send me the info and I will get it to you. I guess we have time still but it looks real bad for me on this again.
After I posted what I just did, it THEN came out that trump was firing his secretary of defense and replacing him. Most likely the current secretary was a deep state operative to make sure all objectives of this coming war were met and not that it will not happen, he is putting his own Defense secretary in. Another piece that could happen if we really have no war would be further trade deals with China. the Chinese are smart and now what is going on. Done.
Thanks for your thoughts Richard.
You are definitely a very smart guy with different views..........who also has a reputation (many years here) for being a contrarian that goes to mega extremes with their predictions.
I enjoy your views a great deal but have suggested reigning them in(not always buying things like way, way out of the money crude calls-$200 crude for instance- because they are so cheap).
I am very sure that THEY were going to attack Iran Asap and that Trump cancelled it within the past 24 hours, I am not sure that the vaccine news was done on purpose. Pfizer is not receiving government money and could have caught Goldman totally by surprise. I am sure I will be able to figure it out within the next couple weeks but the vaccine part I think i should retract as I am not 99% sure of that idea. It would not surprise me if it was true but it could be totally coincidental.
IF...If... We do not make a new high.... You could look at the highs of 9-2 10-13 11-9 as 3 drives to a top ... or...IF the new trend is down we could have a double top... or ...9-2 high to 9-21 as first leg down then an ABC correction to the 11-9 high then ????
Still to early to tell a new high would cancel all of this.
I'm slightly bearish but cautious