Weather Friday
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Started by metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:49 a.m.

Here is the latest radar image. You can see the upper level low circulation spinning in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Let take a closer look below:
Central Great Lakes sector loop



Go to: Most Recent Image


Comments
By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours......lots of it in the Eastern Cornbelt..........following the forecasts.

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal. 



By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Most importantly........forecast rains.

Rains the next 7 days .........dumping on the Western Cornbelt but also much of the country............... rain makes grain still but when are the rains dialed in and we trade the week 2 dome?  Soon?

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Some areas for excessive rains.......farther east and south than before.......then back in the Central Plains with the new system.

Excessive rain threat too


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/13/18 - 12Z 06/14/18
By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Use the link for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0856Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 25/1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur          within 25 miles of any point).

                                    



By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Temperatures cooled off now thru the Midwest and East:

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows pleasant temps Upper Midwest, then warming back up. 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Heat ridge much farther west on latest guidance...........nw flow and upper level trough in Northeast US.


Last 6Z GFS:    

    

      gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_312_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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 Late Week 2 heat anomalies.....farther west today.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4...........MUCH cooler than it has been in a long time......especially Northeast.

Still some heat SCentral and West.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Turns drier in some places

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Last 0z Canadian model ensemble average and individual members.........shifting heat ridge farther west?

Weak trough far northeast?

Not all agree and there is room for something  extreme with the dome scenario.


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 08, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0

By Jim_M - June 22, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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I would be in the .1 inch range so far for my part of NE Ohio.  

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 1:15 p.m.
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Jim,

You got ripped off (-:


My rain gauge measured 1.35 on top of .25 the other day. Rains don't come better than this around here in June. Hopefully, you'll get a decent one later today.


What county do you live in Jim?