INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 8, 2020, 8:13 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, September 8, 2020 



6:00 AM ET. August NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism



                       Small Business Idx (expected 99.1; previous 98.8)



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry



10:00 AM ET. August Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 50.89)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



10:00 AM ET. September IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index



                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 46.8)



                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 39.8)



10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade



11:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting



3:00 PM ET. July Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +13.0B; previous +9.0B)



  N/A              Large Financial Institution Directors Conference


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it extends last-week's huge tech sell off. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,069.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,915.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 12,465.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,069.76. Second support is the August 11th low crossing at 10,845.50.



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends last-week's sharp decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3300.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3478.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3524.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3300.53. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3236.03. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. The high-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. First  resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-17. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.



September T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September last-Friday's decline, the August 28th low crossing at 138.230 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 140.005 would renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 140.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the overnight low crossing at $37.56. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.  



October heating oil was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $108.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.95. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. First support is the overnight low crossing at $108.69. Second support is the May 29th low crossing at $105.70.  



October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at $106.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the overnight low crossing at $112.61. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.    



October Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.415 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance isthe November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.415. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.16. First support is September's low crossing at $91.74. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.



The September Euro was lower in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high  crossing at $120.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.66.



The September British Pound was sharply lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056  would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639. First support is the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2926.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0862 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1116. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0862. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0829.  



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 76.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.92.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0934 would renew the decline off July's high. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at $1865.00 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1912.90. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.  



September silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $26.130 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the reaction low crossing at $26.130. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973. 



September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9040 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9559. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9040. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range below the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.47 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.40 3/4.      



December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.69 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.69 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.28. 



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.72 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.57.          



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.40 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the December 2019 high crossing at $9.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.50 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.77. Second resistance is the December 2019 high crossing at $9.82 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.50 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.26.  



December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $303.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $309.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $303.60.   

   

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.85. 



Comments
By metmike - Sept. 8, 2020, 3:20 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


NG got crushed but not from weather.

Grains were strong but were off the highs. Exports continue to be robust.