Highs for days 3-7:

Warming/heating back up Plains/Midwest.

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

We have passed the hottest time of year climatologically by 7 weeks.

 The heat is out West................moves back into the Plains.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

Days 0-1-2 below:

Days 3-7 below:

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

 IA will finally get some rain ..........too late to help the crops much.

Day 1 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

Excessive rain potential.

Dry soils in the central belt can handle a lot of rain right now.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Not much severe weather!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook	F
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Learn About Weekly Precipitation

Current Dew Points

A bit Humid up to the Ohio River(not real bad). Very dry Upper Midwest/N.Plains.

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

The forecasted weather might not move the markets but that cold out west would certainly sour an attitude,  :)   

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

May 21:  A bit more drought in ND.

May 28: Not much change

June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.

June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!

June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.

June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).

July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.

July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.

July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.

July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.

July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.

August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.

August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).

August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.

August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!

September 3:  Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!

September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/     

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 26, 2020 12 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run at 360 hours. These are the 500mb upper level maps:

Sunday: Heat ridge west-hot, troughing possible downstream.  Strong jet stream. Likely dry unless northwest flow becomes more  active in the Midwest.  A few solutions have the heat ridge farther east. 

Monday: Ridge West to trough east preferred (with heat in the West but low confidence. Likely to be dry.

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Sunday: At 7 days, Solid Positive anomaly West, negative anomaly Midwest. Positive anomaly grows during week 2 and shifts slightly farther east(heat spreading east a bit?) Weak Negative anomaly fills in/shifts east.

Monday: Negative anomaly in the N/Central region fills in this week and shifts east. Positive anomaly out West grows a bit and also shifts to the N.Rockies.

2 weeks out below

                                    ++++++++++

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

Sunday: AO is bouncing around thru 2 weeks. NAO is mostly positive, which makes it tough for cool air in the Midwest this week to push very far east. PNA, like the others has a wide spread in solutions but is close to zero. The wide spread suggests uncertainty/low confidence. 

Monday: Very wide spread in the NAO that drops from positive to near 0(some negative late week 2).  Same thing with the PNA. Much uncertainty and variation in the location of the large scale features and location/position of the strong jet stream. 

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

 Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Update maps for Friday.