KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 11, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2484.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1850.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 585.4K)
8:30 AM ET. August CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.2%; previous +1%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. August Real Earnings
10:00 AM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. August Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3.7)
Employment Idx (previous 2.4)
New Orders Idx (previous -1.7)
Prices Received (previous 4.7)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.7%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +7.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 70.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +2.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it erased early-session gains gains. Energy and utilities stocks led the afternoon sell off. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the sharp decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,239.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 28,281.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If the Dow renews this summer's rally, February's high crossing at 29,568.57 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 29,199.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27,464.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,281.87.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,113.42 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,773.08 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,773.08. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 12,465.25.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,113.42. Second support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3312.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3459.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3459.65. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3579.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3335.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3312.49.
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September T-bonds closed closed up 17/32's at 177-29.
September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-15. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed up 45-pts. At 139.195.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 138.070 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 140.130 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 140.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.54. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at 106.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.25. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 129.41. Third resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 108.51. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the August 12th low crossing at 2.228 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 2.605 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance is the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.223.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.01. First support is September's low crossing at 91.72. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro closed higher on Thursday while extending the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 120.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.88.
The September British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2947 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2710. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3199 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3199. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. Third resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2710. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.2484 is the next downside target.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. However, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0878 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0878. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 76.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.01. Second support is August's low crossing at 74.35.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 0.0952. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower in late-trading on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1919.00 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
December silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 25th low crossing at 26.290 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.190. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the August 25th low crossing at 26.290. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.614.
December copper closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 291.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 306.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.66.
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December Corn closed up $0.05 1/4-cents at $3.65 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off August's low. Today's rally was underpinned by an African swine fever scare in Germany, which could translate to increased feed demand in the U.S. Technical buying sent corn to its the highest levels in five months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.51 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-week moving average crossing at $3.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.51 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.41 3/4.
December wheat closed up $0.05-cents at $5.48 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Thursday due to ongoing production concerns of some key overseas competitors. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.03 3/4-cents at $4.74 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.54 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at $5.35 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.01 3/4-cents at $9.77 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the December 2018 high crossing at $9.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 2018-high crossing at $9.85. Second resistance is the December-2017 high crossing at $10.06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.62 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $0.60 to $317.50.
December soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $306.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $319.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $312.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $306.50.
December soybean oil closed up 2-pts. at 33.23.
December soybean oil posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-week's. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.04.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $3.00 at $64.38.
October hogs gapped up and closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $67.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $64.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $67.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $57.91. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.90.
October cattle closed up $0.55 at $105.25.
October cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.28. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.45-cents at $139.70.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.59. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.46 would confirm that a short-term top. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!