Soybeans September 14, 2020-onward
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Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2020, 1:18 p.m.

Here's a quick view of most-active #soybeans in 93, 08 & 20. In the ~3 weeks ended <date>, futures rose XX (YY%): 

July 7, 1993: +$1.30/bu (+23%) 

March 3, 2008: +$2.39/bu (+18%) 

Sept. 14, 2020: +$0.96/bu (+11%)Image

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2020, 1:20 p.m.
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Sept. 14: Milestone for CBOT #soybeans as the most-active contracts breaks $10/bu for the first time in the post trade war era (since June 6, 2018). 

Relative Strength Index is at 86+ this morning. According to my records, the last 2 times it was stronger was 3/3/08 and 7/7/93.


By metmike - Sept. 16, 2020, 1:49 p.m.
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Sept. 16: CBOT November #soybeans are trading up about 16 cents mid-session after hitting a high of $10.12-1/4 per bu.  The contract is up about 13% since Aug. 1. Within the last 15 years, only 2013 and 2007 saw a stronger Aug to mid-Sep rally in Nov beans.


By metmike - Sept. 16, 2020, 1:50 p.m.
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Just a quick screen grab to show what I'm talking about. This is Nov #soybeans, showing % change from Aug to mid-Sep. Orange is 2020, yellow 2007, blue 2013. Beans were about $13.48 in 2013 and $9.55 on this day in 2007.


By metmike - Sept. 16, 2020, 1:55 p.m.
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NOPA crush, Aug. 2020: 165.055 mbu of #soybeans, below trade @ 169.4689 month low, first time in 9 months without new record

NOPA Sep-Aug 2.04 bbu, +3.6% YOYStocks 1.519 bln lbs, in line w/ trade, 9 month lowYield unch from July, highest since Sept. 2019


By metmike - Sept. 16, 2020, 1:56 p.m.
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This is USA soyoil stocks/use annually per USDA. 20/21 has not yet started, though USDA sees it fairly steady with the past 2 years.Image

By bowyer - Sept. 16, 2020, 7:47 p.m.
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Made my first 2020 cash bean sale today. $10.09 November delivery

local elevator october delivery 9/16/19  $8.40  -.60 X basis

                                                        9/16/20 $9.93 -.18 X basis (on the Mississippi)

Also,I'm long May beans on paper for the long haul....

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 11:22 a.m.
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Congrats bowyer and all the other producers that have unsold product that has leaped in value the last month+

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 12:50 p.m.
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Column: Record-setting CBOT soy rally working on U.S. acreage surge for 2021 - Braun

By Karen Braun


There is plenty of time for things to change, but as it stands, the ratio of new-crop 2021 CBOT soybeans to corn favors soybean plantings next spring by the largest degree in three years. That ratio indicates relative profitability among the two crops and is a decent predictor of acreage shifts long before planting begins.

The 2021 ratio finished at an all-time high of 2.49 on Wednesday, while the 2020 ratio ended at 2.72, close to the early August top of 2.75. Traditionally, values of 2.5 and above distinctly favor soybeans and those below 2.3 favor corn. (

Next year’s ratio is the strongest for the date in three years, though below that of four years ago. High implied soybean profitability in late 2016 to early 2017 and late 2017 to early 2018 led to record U.S. acreage of the oilseed in 2017 and 2018.

A Farm Futures magazine survey this week indicated 2021 U.S. soybean plantings at 87.9 million acres and corn at 91.8 million. That survey was taken July 14-27, when the new-crop ratio was elevated though less so than now, so the recent price action would increasingly support the outlook.

That soy acreage would be the third-largest behind 2017 and 2018 and would be a 5% increase on the year. In 2017, soy acres rose 8% from what had been a record in 2016, reaching 90.2 million. Area dropped 1% in 2018 to 89.2 million acres, though that was still well above any pre-2017 level.

The idea of a strong 2021 soy acreage boost has additional support in the fact that 2020 soy acres surprised the market to the low side more than once, and supplies will likely be lower than originally thought due to a smaller harvest and strong demand.

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 12:51 p.m.
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Compared w/ expectations, Aug report was actually bearish #soybeans. Why the rally? Derecho 2 days before report, drought impacts just starting to show, huge U.S. buying by #China. Beans were sub $9 most of the summer & funds were very mildly bullish April-June. V bullish now!

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 12:52 p.m.
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As of Thursday, CBOT #soybeans were up almost 16% since the August USDA crop reports. That appears to be a RECORD rally by % from the Aug report to this date - I checked back thru 1980 & this chart shows back to 1989. Maybe some bigger action in the 70's? But that was long ago.


By metmike - Sept. 24, 2020, 11:56 a.m.
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                By metmike - Sept. 24, 2020, 1:31 a.m.            


Thanks much tallpine!

Been been busy re mortaring all the bricks on our patio and with wifes medical situation.

Beans have been led higher by record demand from China recently and a poor/dry end to the growing season(pod filling).

However, the only years that I remember beans going higher in the 2nd half of September were years when early yield reports were shockingly low.

1993.............flooding year.

1995...........mid Sept freeze in IL/IN

2003 aphids along with hot/dry August

2010 heat fill for corn caused it to go higher in harvest from horrible yield reports but not sure what beans did in late Sept.

Harvest pressure in a normal year in the 2nd half of Sept.  often crushes bean prices.........but this is not a normal year.

By wglassfo - Sept. 25, 2020, 8:49 a.m.
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Corn not beans

Our local ethanol plant is calling producers looking for corn until new crop is harvested. Offering a very good price and so far, not enough corn to run a normal flow thru of product, which is odd given the lower amount of product needed due to less driving

Unless somebody has old crop will be forced to slow plant down until new crop is available

Offering 5.80 CAD and asking for offers

We have swept our bins as most others are the same

We will deliver some early harvest for last part of Oct. for 6.00 off the combine although we will be drying some high moisture corn, the numbers still work as the propane is not a big factor at that price

They called to see if we would move our new crop delivery up sooner, but our crop will need all the time , in the field, we can get before early harvest

A long time since we have seen 6.00 corn CAD off the combine

No idea why we are short corn locally, although I have seen several new live stock bldgs in the last 5 yrs as a new generation comes on board and land

Even if Dad helps it still doesn't pencil out for the entire family is too expensive to buy for a starting farmer

Rented ground is just not available unless you have a long term relationship with a land lord

Scarce rented ground is one thing that has changed since is started

Either you own it or you don't farm it

20-25 K/acre and more in heavy livestock areas

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2020, 8:54 a.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

Happy to see you getting some nice prices for all your work and risk.

By wglassfo - Sept. 25, 2020, 11:40 a.m.
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Yes we are happy with the price but an early frost nipped some corn at 3/4 milk line

Purdue university tells us on their information platform our bu loss will not be severe, but to expect some lost yield. We are reasonably confident we can blend to avoid dockage for low test wt. What I would really like to know is if our climate has shortened up some what for the 1st frost

I know you posted some graphs of previous yrs and 1st frost but I am looking ahead, not back ward

I know when we can expect a normal 1st frost but should we think about a shorter growing season as possible climate change or cycles of growing days

We can change to early hybrids but give up yield so perhaps a word of advice as to what to expect in the near term.

Do we assume normal frost dates or perhaps a short term earlier risk of frost

I don't understand climate and know climate is almost impossible to predict but are there any warning signs we should consider near term [1-5 yrs] or just continue as usual