Week in Review
5 responses | 1 like
Started by TimNew - Oct. 3, 2020, 7:50 a.m.

Dallas Fed Mfg M/MSep-208.0013.60B
Chicago PMI M/MSep-2051.2062.40B+
ISM Mfg M/MSep-2056.0055.40C
PMI MFG M/MSep-2053.1053.10C
Factory OrdersAug-206.400.70C
Redbook W/W9/26/20201.502.20C+
Case-Shiller HPIJul-200.000.60C+
Pending Home SalesAug-205.908.80B
Construction Spending M/MAug-200.101.40C+
Consumer Confidence M/MSep-2084.80101.80B+
Consumer Sentiment M/MSep-2078.9080.40C+
GDP Q/QQ2-31.70-31.40D
Corp Profit Q/QQ2-20.80-19.70D
State Street InvestorsSep-2086.1083.90C -
Personal IncomeAug-200.40-2.70C-
Personal SpendingAug-201.901.00C
Jobless Claims9/26/2020870K837KC+
Employment Situation M/MSep-201,371,000661,000C

An interesting week for data.

Q2 bears mention, but barely.  We've come a long way since the strongly negative GDP and Corp Profits.  Of note, the Latest Atlanta Fed forecast for Q3 GDP is north of 30 @ 33.8,  a record SMASHER!


Personal income took a hit.  Likely related to lower income workers coming back on line. Spending continues to grow.

State Street Investors lost a little confidence but remain at relatively high numbers.

Jobless Claims dropped nicely this week tho remaining at a lofty 837K.

Employment Situation was a little disappointing, relatively speaking , at 661K.  Of note, private sector increased by 877K, indicating a 216K drop in public sector (government ) jobs, likely related to dropping Census temp workers.

RedBook had a second consecutive week in positive territory.

MFG remains strong with ISM at a 55.4.  Dallas Fed had an outsized 13.6 while Factory Orders moderated to .7.

Consumer Sentiment showed a gain while Confidence soared to 101.8.

Housing continues to show strength with Pending Home Sales at a 14 year high.  Construction also came in strong with a 1.4% gain.

No doubt about a C+ this week with a suck factor stuck at 7 with jobless claims above 800k

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2020, 12:32 p.m.
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Thanks very much Tim!

Nobody would have guessed 4 months ago that we would be doing this well.

Hopefully, things will continue to improve.

By TimNew - Oct. 3, 2020, 2:04 p.m.
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IMO, we remain in perilous territory.   A flare up in vires cases could possibly put us in a tail spin.  Trump's illness,  should it suddenly become critical,   even a Biden win could be rough, especially if the victories extend into the House and Senate..    At the risk of veering into NTR,  I'll leave it at that.

But for now,  yes,  the economic progress is impressive.  Arguably the sharpest recovery of our lifetimes. 

By bear - Oct. 3, 2020, 8:47 p.m.
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4 months ago,  i was hoping that things would be much better by now.  even when places do open up,  too many people are afraid to go out.   and there are too many local leaders that are too slow to open things.  

By TimNew - Oct. 3, 2020, 9:15 p.m.
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I beg to differ.   We had the sharpest contraction in history and we are having the sharpest recovery.  

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2020, 9:35 p.m.
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The president will be fine.......health-wise after he recovers from COVID.

The country will not do so well if COVID picks up again.

With regards to the new regime under Biden/Harris, we are in the early stages of the cultural revolution. 

The train has already left the station..........the writing is on the wall. Global and US socialism is extremely likely..........and revolutions can happen much faster than most people anticipate.

To many people this seems impossible to imagine.

One of Bidens solemn promises(which I believe he will actually keep) is to sign the US back up with the Paris Climate Accord the day that he is elected and then lead the world forward with its agenda.

This tells me that he is going to be big part of the cultural revolution. The Climate Accord has nothing to do with the Climate. We are having a climate optimum for life on this massively greening planet  by every authentic scientific measure. 

The Accord is about the cultural revolution, replacing capitalism with global socialism/Marxism.

The Green New Deal is the US plan for this. The Green New Deal has a 0% chance of working based on the laws of science, physics and energy but the concepts behind it, will help pave the way for socialism in the US.

They call it environmental justice and saving the planet.  Neat sounding expressions but authentic, practicing environmentalists like metmike who know that CO2 is a beneficial gas and more is better for our biosphere and life on this planet up to double the current ambient atmospheric levels............know that they are diverting all the resources that could be used to fight real pollution in our world............to convert that world to socialism using the fake climate crisis scare.

Our only chance to save the planet is to do what they tell us. 

Listen to Greta, spouting absurd, provably, very extreme/exaggerated, anti science rhetoric/rubbish or we will lose the entire planet by the year 2030.

I am actually ok with the part of the plan that redistributes the worlds wealth to help poor/less fortunate countries/people. 

I am greatly offended though, that they have hijacked my profession, climate science, rewritten climate history(to wipe out previous similar warmings-like the Medieval Warm Period/Optimum 1,000 years ago, which 100 different peer reviewed studies provided evidence of before this climate crisis was manufactured) and are using lies and propaganda to misinform people about climate and weather.

Sorry for the NTR implications but fossil fuel energy is the lifeblood of every developed countries economy. Getting rid of fossil fuels could not be more market related. 

Not many know this, but almost all fertilizer is manufactured using fossil fuels(natural gas).

Take that away and world food production/crop yields plunge. 

Another secret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019


Green New Deal-corn ethanol: Good bye corn ethanol, Hello $2 corn prices again....$5 soybeans/supply gluts/ August 2019


And the massive carbon taxes we see on fuel/energy are only starting. Future energy prices and markets will be greatly affected.