KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 12, 2020
11:00 AM ET. World Bank launches International Debt Statistics Report
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
6:00 AM ET. September NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 101.4; previous 100.2)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook published
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.4%; previous +1.3%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 804.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +6.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 320.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3579.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.2%)
8:00 AM ET. IMF Fiscal Monitor published
8:30 AM ET. September PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)
Thursday, October 15, 2020
5:30 AM ET. IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings plenary session
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 12.0; previous 17.0)
Employment Idx (previous 2.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 7.1)
Prices Received (previous 6.5)
8:30 AM ET. October Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (Expected 14.0; previous 15.0)
Prices Paid (previous 25.1)
Employment (previous 15.7)
New Orders (previous 25.5)
Prices Received (previous 18.4)
Delivery Times (previous 12.2)
Inventories (previous -10.8)
Shipments (previous 36.6)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 830K; previous 840K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 10976000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1003K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous +0.9%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.9%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3831B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +75B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 492.927M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.501M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.747M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.435M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 171.796M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.962M)
Refinery Usage (previous 77.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.345M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.898M)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1225.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2590.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 568K)
9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 71.8%; previous 71.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.4; previous 78.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.5)
4:00 PM ET. August Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were higher overnight as investors ready themselves for earnings season to kick off this week and for a flurry of activity on stimulus negotiations in Washington, D.C. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,296.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the overnight high crossing at 11,891.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is September's low crossing at 10,656.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3516.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3353.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3491.75. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3516.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2253.06. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 173-16 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 171-16. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 175-23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175-23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176-21. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 173.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Wednesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, August's low crossing at 138.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.119 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.119. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below September's low crossing at $36.58 would renew the decline off August's high. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.03. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.10 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.10. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 127.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.17. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.01 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26. First support is October's low crossing at $109.58. Second support is September's low crossing at $106.60.
November Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.002 is the next upside target.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.955. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.596. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the September 10th low crossing at $92.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is the September 10th low crossing at $92.68. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.
The December Euro was slightly lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is September's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2892 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3031 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3031. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0927 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.
The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is September's low crossing at 74.53. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0950 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 0.0940 is the next downside target. First resistance is October 2nds high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0943. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1949.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1949.80. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is September's low crossing at $1851.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.
December silver was steady to slightly lower is late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.221 is the next upside target. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.221. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is September's low crossing at $21.810. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 2.1210 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9872 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is October's low crossing at 2.8345. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.76 1/2 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.76 1/2. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $3.60 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.67 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.21. Second resistance is the July-2018 high crossing at $6.29 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.83 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.67 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.51 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4. Second support is the the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.02 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, September's high crossing at $5.54 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.54 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.60 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.22 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $10.79 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.23 3/4. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $9.85 3/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $343.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $372.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $352.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $343.80.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 35.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 34.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.
Thanks tallpine!
Back from my Detroit visit with 95 year old Dad and trying catch up.
Rains picking up in Mato Grosso Brazil hitting the beans today.
Cold temps coming up for ng had us gap higher last night but moderation in week 2, instead of a continuation of the cold is pressuring prices but we have not filled the gap yet.