KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 19, 2020
10:00 AM ET. October NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 83)
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. September New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.416M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -5.1%)
Building Permits (previous 1.470M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. September Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.9M)
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 798.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 311.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3579.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 489.109M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.818M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.121M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.626M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 164.551M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.245M)
Refinery Usage (previous 75.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.475M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.13M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, October 22, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 898K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +53K)
Continuing Claims (previous 10018000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1165K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Leading Index (previous 106.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. September Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 6.00M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 310600)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +11.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3877B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)
11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 18)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 11)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 18)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 23, 2020
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.5)
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were higher overnight to start the week on hopes for a U.S. stimulus package and after Chinese growth data showed that the economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,466.45 would signal that a short -term top has been posted. First resistance last-Tuesday's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,466.45. Second support is October's low crossing at 11,197.50.
The December S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3379.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3568.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3379.57. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 174-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 176-04 would open the door for a possible test of the September 29th high crossing at 177-12. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176-04. Second resistance is the September 29th high crossing at 177-12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174-16. Second support is October's low crossing at 173-10.
December T-notes were sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 138.185 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.140 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.140. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the September-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the September 18th high crossing at $41.72 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at 44.05. Closes below September's low crossing at $36.58 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.02 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.02. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 127.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.97. Second support is October's low crossing at 106.88.
November unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at $109.58 is the next downside target. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26. First support is October's low crossing at $109.58. Second support is September's low crossing at $106.60.
November Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.610 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.002 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2.955. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.373.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the September 10th low crossing at $92.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is the September 10th low crossing at $92.68. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.
The December Euro was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 9th high crossing at $118.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last-week's decline, September's low crossing at $116.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 9th high crossing at $118.48. Second resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. First support is September's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42.
The December British Pound was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2904 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August 6th high crossing at 1.3191 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3086. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0915 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 76.35. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is the October 7th low crossing at 74.97. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.53. Third support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 0.0954 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 0.0940 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 2nd high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0943. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off last-Monday's high, September's low crossing at $1851.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1933.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1933.40. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is the October 7th low crossing at $1877.10. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00.
December silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.937 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $22.965 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $21.810. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.937. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810.
December copper was higher overnight and remains poised to resume the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 2.1210 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0023 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is October's low crossing at 2.8345. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.94 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.83.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low into new highs for the year. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.87 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.83.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.67 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.23 1/2. Second support is the the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.49 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the October 9th high crossing at $10.79 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.31. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $9.85 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $352.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $374.90. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $363.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $352.10.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 35.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 34.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $1.00 at $69.78.
December hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to higher signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the October-2019 high crossing at $72.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $64.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $70.11. Second resistance is the October-2019 high crossing at $72.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $66.56. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $64.85.
December cattle closed down $0.60 at $108.95
December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the September 2nd low crossing at $107.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.51. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $113.58. First support is today's low crossing at $108.12. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.25.
November Feeder cattle closed down $1.72-cents at $134.72.
November Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at $133.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.18. First support is today's low crossing at $134.20. Second support is July's low crossing at $133.23.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 10.18 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 21.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 15.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 73.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Bearish South American weather but everything else is bullish for corn and beans. Harvest pressure on beans usually starts easing up in this time frame too.
Rains for the SRW crop are bearish but not much for the HRW crop with developing drought.
Natural gas weather was leaning bearish. ...............
However, the last run of the GFS ensemble, 6z run was quite a bit cooler.
Tons of rain for coffee land but not too much rain yet.