INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 23, 2020, 8:04 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, October 23, 2020  



9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 53.5)



9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 54.6)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were slightly higher overnight due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,510.58 would signal that a short -term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. First resistance October's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,510.58. Second support is October's low crossing at 11,197.50.



The December S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3395.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3568.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3395.98. Second support is October's low crossing at 3304.70. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, June's low crossing at 171-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 173-31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 174-19. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 171-25. Second support is June's low crossing at 171-16.



December T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.070 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average  crossing at 138.260. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.002. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 138.050. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.286. 

 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the September-October trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 12th low crossing at $39.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the September 18th high crossing at $42.02 would confirm an upside breakout of the September-October trading range while opening the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at 44.33. Closes below October's low crossing at $36.93 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $42.02. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is October's low crossing at $36.93. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.72.  



December heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at $108.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the October 9th high crossing at $121.44 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the October 9th high crossing at $121.44. Second resistance is the August 25st high crossing at 132.46. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $113.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 108.19.



December unleaded gas was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at $107.78 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $122.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $122.53. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $125.98. First support is October's low crossing at $107.78. Second support is September's low crossing at $105.43.     



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.182 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.370 is the next upside target.First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.362. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.370. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.182. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.922.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's lowcrossing at $91.75 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $93.93. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $92.46. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $118.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $117.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $116.31. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $118.95. Second resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $117.02. Second support is September's low crossing at $116.31.



The December British Pound was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends  the rally off September's low, the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2965 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3182. Second resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2736. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2504.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.1138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0959 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1090. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0959. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is the October 7th low crossing at 74.97. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.53.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 0.0963 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0946 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is October's low crossing at 0.0943. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at $1939.40. If December resumes the decline off last-Monday's high, September's low crossing at $1851.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 12th high crossing at $1939.40. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is the October 7th low crossing at $1877.10. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.759 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $22.965 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $21.810. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.759. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0256 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.2180. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0256. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.8345.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.92 1/2 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $4.19. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.04 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.92 1/2.       



December wheat was higher overnight following a two-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.17 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.17 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.98 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight following a two-day correction off Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.54 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4.         



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices  are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.00 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $6.00 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.63 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.50.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $11.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.43 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $10.85 1/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $11.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.43 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.96 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $390.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $370.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.10.   

   

December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off Monday's low, October's high crossing at 34.46 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 34.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed down $3.00 at $66.20. 



December hogs closed limit down on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June's low, the July-2019 high crossing at $73.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.80. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $73.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $61.60.     



December cattle closed down $1.23 at $103.35 



December cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $101.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $108.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.20. First support is today's low crossing at $103.15. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $101.55. 



November Feeder cattle closed down $0.60-cents at $130.55. 


November Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $122.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $133.78. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $127.74. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $122.90.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 10.18 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



December cocoa closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.56 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.16 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 21.15 is the next downside target.                   



March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 15.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.           



December cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 73.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 23, 2020, 1:30 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Very bearish weather in South America vs very bullish demand/buying for grains.


Natural gas weather continues to turn more bearish. The European model overnight was much more bearish.

November ng expires next week which could provide some prices spikes, especially this time of year.