Another big week for export inspections of U.S. #soybeans - some 76% were to #China. Soy insp are up 78% YOY (was 77% last week - keeping same pace vs year ago). #Corn is up 75% YOY, though #wheat is up only 4%. I didn't see any trade estimates this morning.
#Brazil would be expected to run out of #soybeans around this time of year and exports become minimal, so this is not unusual. But the last two years they didn't quite run out like they used to. Compare Oct. 23 with soybean traffic on Sept. 17, July 21, and May 11:
Here's traffic of #corn on Oct. 23, Sept. 17 and April 15. Aug-Oct is when #Brazil's corn exporting season is hot. This month, they are seen shipping slightly less than in Sept and slightly less than Oct 2019, but the 5.5 mmt prediction is strong for the month.
#China imported 51% more #soybeans from #Brazil in September than a year ago, but USA arrivals were down YOY. Makes sense since Aug 2019 U.S. soy exports to China were record for the month. Aug 2020 was down 11% but still 2nd most ever. U.S. arrivals will increase from here.
U.S. #corn sales were much larger than expected last week at 2.2 mmt. #Mexico bought 497kt, #Japan 483kt, unknown 764kt. #China bought 1.07 mmt of #soybeans. #Wheat sales were also larger than expected.
@kannbwxUSDA confirms the following export sales of U.S. #corn: 891,540 tonnes to #Mexico in 2020/21541,010 tonnes to Mexico in 2021/22140,000 tonnes to unknown in 2020/21 That is a total of 1.57 million tonnes of corn or 61.9 million bushels.
The sale to #Mexico (1.43 mln tonnes) sits just outside the top 10 all time daily U.S. #corn sales. Mexico's largest was 1.65 mmt on Dec. 10, 2018, and #China takes #3 and #5 after large sales in July. This table is from USDA:
U.S. #corn export sales as of Oct. 22 totaled 30.6 million tonnes (1.2 billion bushels). In recent years, that mark has been reached as soon as late November in 2016 (for 16/17), and as late as mid/late March in 2016 (15/16) and 2020 (19/20).
USA has sold 47 million tonnes of #soybeans for export in 2020/21. That's 1.726 billion bushels. USA's full-year soy exports have exceeded that mark only five times before (2014/15 through 2018/19). The quickest sales had ever reached current levels was mid-December in 2016.
Sales of U.S. #soybeans to #China stood at a record 26 million tonnes (955 mbu) as of Oct. 22. 2020/21 exports to China are chasing 2016/17's record (the light blue line on this chart) of 36.1 mmt. USDA has 20/21 U.S. soy exports to all destinations topping 16/17 by 1.5%.
This might be helpful: all daily sales of U.S. #soybeans to #China since Sept. The numbers are always round (ending in 000). The unknown soy flashes of 132,000 tonnes on Oct. 20 & 22? I'd guess China. The unknown of 120,700 t on Oct. 26? Nah, prob not China.