election futures
14 responses | 0 likes
Started by bear - Oct. 26, 2020, 5:14 p.m.


the market here is saying that the des will take both chambers of congress.

for prez...the market shows the voting share getting narrower,  but the odds of the dems winning the WH going up.  

By cutworm - Oct. 26, 2020, 6:40 p.m.
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I wonder where this was 1 week before the 2016 election?

By wglassfo - Oct. 26, 2020, 7:02 p.m.
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I read where the most popular search on Google is a do over or how can I change my vote

The Dems got their voters to the polls or mostly mail in ballots early, by drop box or otherwise, before the Biden lap top event became widely known. Even with MSM covering up for the Biden's, word has got out through social media

Now it seems that many voters have voter remorse which unfortunately can't be fixed that I know 

By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 7:09 p.m.
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"Now it seems that many voters have voter remorse which unfortunately can't be fixed that I know"

Yes it can Wayne!

An Absentee Ballot Can Be Changed After It Has Been Filed


"So, what if you change your mind? Can you change your vote?

Cindy Emmer, Democratic elections commissioner for the Chemung County Board of Elections, said that is allowed in New York. Voters can just go to the polls.

“Their names are scanned into the system as to who has voted, and, if you have already voted as an absentee ballot, your absentee ballot will not be counted, just your vote on the machine,” said Emmer."

By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 7:28 p.m.
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Looks like in MN its too late:

Voted early, but changed your mind? Here's how to 'claw back' your ballot


(FOX 9) - Minnesota is on pace to smash its old record for absentee voting, but what if you change your mind after returning your absentee ballot? 


In Minnesota, there’s a way to do just that. But, you will have to act fast. 


If you voted for one candidate, but now wish you had voted for somebody else, in Minnesota you can do something about it. 

It’s known as the “clawback.” Minnesota voters who had a change of heart can go to their city or county election office, request a new ballot and revote. 


There is a cutoff, however. The last day to get a new ballot is Tuesday, Oct. 20, which gives election workers two weeks before election day to process the absentee ballots coming in. 

By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 7:37 p.m.
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Looks like the rules are different for each state but they are telling people that they can't or should not change their vote in most states if the already cast it. 

NY, above looks like an exception.


We've identified 5 situations you may encounter, depending on your state: *see below for further detail on the definitions of these 5 situations

Note: These provisions apply to voters who have already requested an absentee ballot.  If you have not requested an absentee ballot, check our Elections Dates and Deadlines page to find out when you can vote in-person and the Early Voting Dates chart for a look at your state's options.

metmike: And you wonder why some people are concerned about the voting by mail process (-:

By joj - Oct. 26, 2020, 8:01 p.m.
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RCP average of polls shows Biden up by 8%.

At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 3.1%

60 million people have already voted. That is nearly half the total votes cast in 2016. Waiting lines for early voting are 2 hours long.  (and they are wearing masks - hint, hint)

Be still my wildly beating heart!

By MarkB - Oct. 26, 2020, 11:44 p.m.
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I guess we will just have to wait and see how this turns out. I'm not voting until election day. I have refused to be a part of any polling calls. Not giving them any clues as to who I will vote for. And the vast majority of my friends, most of which are republican, also have been avoiding the polls, and will be voting in person. Seems there are at least a dozen polling calls every day.

So will I be voting for Trump? Or will I be voting for Harris? Face it. Biden is merely a hood ornament in this race. Harris is who you will actually be voting for if you vote dem. Pelosi has already been aligning a committee to remove Biden, and the election hasn't even happened yet. He would become the first president removed from office due to mental incapacitation issues. That should be a clue.

Either way it goes, lock and load.

By joj - Oct. 27, 2020, 6:59 a.m.
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"Either way it goes, lock and load".


Who exactly are you planning to shoot?

By bear - Nov. 1, 2020, 5:24 p.m.
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betting houses online offer a very different perspective on the election, compared to the iowa futures market.

here is a strange anomaly.    the odds showing for the election has about a 40% chance of trump winning. and about a 60% chance of biden winning.  but...  75% of the bets are for trump to win.   

so the people running the betting establishments are saying biden will win.  

but the people placing the bets are saying trump will win.  

By metmike - Nov. 1, 2020, 10:38 p.m.
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That is pretty strange bear.

Although nothing seems too shocking anymore in that realm.

By joj - Nov. 2, 2020, 7:53 a.m.
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That doesn't surprise me that much.  I am reminded of the bookmakers profession.  Put out a betting line that will attract an equal amount of betting on each team.  So for example if the Lakers are favored over the Celtics by 5 points by the book makers and the betting money comes in equally on both teams then the bookie makes the 10% commission from the losing bettors.  But if the fans are betting heavily on the Lakers then the bookmaker is taking on some risk if the Lakers win.  So, the betting line expands as the bets come in on the Lakers until the betting line becomes more attractive to draw in bets on the Celtics and reduce the risk for the Bookie.

In the 1989 World Series the Oakland A's were heavy favorites over the Reds.  I had no personal favorite but I was surprised to see the betting line for the whole 7 game series to go out to 3-1 on the bash brothers (Canseco and McGuire).  I thought Oakland was the better team but I had never seen odds like that so I made a small wager on Cincinnati.  Still money continued to come in for Oakland bettors.  By the first pitch of game 1 the betting line had expanded to 3.7 to 1.  Then the Reds won the first game and new lines were put out for the winner of the series.  Even down 1 game to 0 the money kept coming in for the A's and the odds still had them as favored by 2-1 odds.   The Reds won game 2 and the odds were incredibly 1.3 to 1 with the A's favored.  Still the bets came in on the A's.  The Reds swept the series and the bookies cleaned up.

Various models have Biden favored to win by 90% to Trump's 10%.  I expect Biden to win but if I had to place a bet I'd take Trump's 9-1 odds for the bigger payoff.  Democrats are still in shock from 2016 and don't believe the polls.  Trump's supporters likewise feel confidence after pollsters missed the mark in 2016.  Thus, 60-40 is the betting line.  My guess is that 70-30 is closer to the mark but 60-40 isn't enough to entice me.

By metmike - Nov. 2, 2020, 10:42 a.m.
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That was one of the most enlightening(interesting) posts ever...... since I don't follow that gambling scene. 

Trading futures using the weather is enough gambling (-: 

I'll bet that everybody else learned something from that.

By TimNew - Nov. 2, 2020, 11:47 a.m.
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JOJ is close,  but not quite right.

Bookies work for the "Juice".  Both winners and losers pay a percentage of the bet(Juice) to the Bookie and the Bookie tries to get pretty close to the same # of bettors on each side of the bet.  They do adjust the payout if it gets too lopsided to attract more to the other side.  

If the event is close to taking place and they are still lopsided,  they'll call other Bookies, hoping to find one or more that is lopsided in the other direction and then pool the bets and split the juice.

Bookies don't gamble if they can help it.

By metmike - Nov. 2, 2020, 12:20 p.m.
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Thanks for the addition Tim................you and joj make a great team (-: