bond trends
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Started by bear - Nov. 12, 2020, 10:53 a.m.

the decline in rates has gone far past its turning point.  we should see higher interest rates soon.  

Re: bond trends
By metmike - Nov. 13, 2020, 1:43 a.m.
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Thanks  bear!

I don't think their correlation holds with regards to causation. I think that it's just coincidental and they are wrong about a peak in global temperatures.

Nov 5, 2020


A peak in global average temperatures in 2015-16 is foretelling a bottom for long-term bond yields.  But to understand that point, I need to explain this week’s chart.


However, on the graph below, there is a strong correlation between all crop yields and temperatures. Warmer temps/higher CO2 and much higher yields and all plants experiencing accelerated growth. 

"There is no time offset employed in this chart.  The two plots have both been rising for much of the 20th century, in part because better science on fertilizers and strains of corn seeds have helped boost production.   But higher temperatures have helped, and so have higher CO2 levels, since CO2 is an essential nutrient for growing plants.  Higher CO2 levels also help plants to more efficiently use water, so droughts are not as significant of a problem as they used to be.  If you look closely at the chart, you can see that the cooling periods since the 1960s have been associated with dips in the annual corn crop yield figures. 


The implication of all of this is that if we enter a cooling period, as the earth is scheduled to, that is going to mean a dropoff for crop yields, and an associate rise for interest rates, after the 5-year lag.  That cooling period has arguably already started, in the years since that 2015-16 El Niño peak."

Metmike-I  disagree strongly with them about the cooling period. When they make statements like that, it means they are not following the authentic science.