Long time no see(read)!
Most maps below will automatically update each day.
Very mild into early December! Bearish natural gas prices!
Very Early morning European model is colder(not as mild but no pattern change to colder)!!
NEW: Detailed analysis. Latest COVID-19 numbers. .............COVID is killing people at a 5 times lower rate per positive cases, compared to the Spring peak. That's the good news. The bad news is that daily positives are 4 times higher than the Spring peak and increasing everywhere with hospitals near capacity in many places.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61206/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
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Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Mild by November standards for much of the country
Lows days 3-7 below:
Mild for this time of year, especially East and South!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Positive departures dominate!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:
Active front this weekend.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Days 0-1-2 below:
Days 3-7 below:
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Turning wet this weekend!
Day 1 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Increasing this weekend to slight risk areas.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:
Low risk!
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | F |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Total snow accumulation the next 2 weeks from the GFS ensemble mean model:
Not much Plains eastward.
Current Dew Points
Widespread very dry air in place!
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.
July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.
July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.
July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.
August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.
August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).
August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.
August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!
September 3: Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!
September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.
October 1: La Nina driven severe drought out West, some of which has pushed into the Plains and even parts of the Midwest in recent months.
Oct. 7: Drought intensifies..............which is not unusual since this is the driest time of year seasonally.
November 5: Drought improves in the S.Plains!
November 12: Not much change. Hard to increase drought at this time of year with the cooler temperatures.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Wednesday November 18: Waiting on maps
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 12z run at 360 hours:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f384.gif
Wednesday, November 18: Good agreement of no major cold intrusions with colder air from the high latitudes cut off.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Wednesday November 18: Positive anomalies across most of the country. Greatest positives and warmth during week 2 shifting to the center of the country. No chance with this configuration during week 2 for meridional flow to transport cold from high latitudes to mid latitudes. It would actually need to be the complete opposite of this set up.
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Wednesday, November 18: +AO and +NAO are unfavorable for cold air delivery thru 2 weeks but they drop closer to 0 by the end of 2 weeks, which increases chances for cold intrusions........ though there are no signs of MAJOR cold then. PNA near 0.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Even the week 3 and week 4 CFS model looks very mild!
Early morning European model is colder(not as mild but not a pattern change-just more HDD's in the same general pattern-for now)!
Ridge West, Trough East couplet may be forming and amplifying in week 2 which could signal a pattern change to colder in the Eastern half of the country in week 2 and beyond.
