remember, just because money supply goes up 20% this year,... that does not mean that all prices at the store will go up by 20% this year.  there can be quite a lag.  

all that money that uncle sam printed, spent, borrowed, etc in the 50s , 60s, and 70s, showed up as big inflation in the 70s , and 80s.   

stocks went up in the 50s thru early 70s,  but... commodites did not surge till we dropped the gold link in the 70s.

when the money is printed, spent, etc, it sometimes goes somewhere else first... overseas, or real estate, into bonds, etc.  but sooner or later,... it WILL hit the commodity market.  

   btw,... NO stimulus is NOT important.  we have stimulus because NO ONE believes in saving for a rainy day.  just don't ever save a dime,  then when things turn south,  whine, and demand that govt step in and give us all handouts.  

the problem is called moral hazard.  you bail out people who are not good at planning,... and in the future they will learn that they don't have to save for an emergency.  

imagine the teenager who always has the parent there to bail them out of jail every time they get in trouble with the law.   maybe the kid will learn an important lesson,  if the parent says... sorry,  not going to bail you out this time. 

10 years ago,  our leaders bailed out banks that made bad decisions.  and the CEO even gets a bonus.  

we should have let more of them go bankrupt.  and we should have put some in jail.  

that would have been an important lesson.  be more careful with company finances.  

"10 years ago,  our leaders bailed out banks that made bad decisions.  and the CEO even gets a bonus.  

we should have let more of them go bankrupt.  and we should have put some in jail.  

that would have been an important lesson.  be more careful with company finances."

I couldn't agree more.  Jail time for bankers who sold junk as AAA would have been too kind.  

On the inflation fears I have been wrong for 30 years.  Deficit spending!!!  Run for the hills.  The sky is falling.  10 years ago the explosion in money printing was supposed to result in massive inflation.  It hasn't happened yet.  The inflation hawks get to say "not yet" forever.  Still waiting...

This is actually a wonderful trading forum discussion....thanks for bringing it up Wayne and for the great comments.

Unless anybody objects, it will get moved there.

joj,  remember,  someone in 1970 could look at all those deficits, all that spending, all those money supply increases and say,... see oil is still under 2 bucks per barrel... no big inflation. .. deficits don't matter... money printing does not cause inflation.

then a few years later... what the *%#k,... it must be problems in the mid east that is causing all this inflation.   

remember,  inflation is Always a monetary phenomena.  

but heres the point... as economies stagnate,  central banks around the world will ramp up money supply.  and by the year 2070, most of the western world will look more like argentina,  with 30% inflation and 30% unemployment.

that does not mean we will have 30% inflation today.