See these comprehensive posts for South America Oct/Nov 2020
Crop calendar for Argentina:
Crop Calendar for Brazil:
The maps below are for the past 30 days, 90 days and 180 days % of average precipitation.
Soybean country of Brazil has been dry!!!
The forecasts below come from the GFS/US model. They are constantly updated every 12 hours.
The big weather story is the pattern change coming up that will feature huge, widespread rains, some in the drought areas. Soybean prices have fallen 40c the since Sunday Night ahead of this pattern change.
The models, have over forecast rain amount recently but have alot coming up. The GFS Ensemble(just out 18z run below) has massive rains for parts of coffee land. Even a 10 inch contour. That would make a substantial dent in the drought and help to restore soil moisture there.
Southern Brazil beans might also get a bit too much rain.
But when you are still in a major drought, that is not going to be the interpretation this far out.
Central Brazil/Mato Grosso will get the least again. Maybe only 2-3 inches in the west. This is prime soybean growing country.
The latest model run actually has a bit less than the one from 18 hours ago(2nd map below) but the pattern change to much wetter is getting closer each day and its going to be awhile for these maps to start looking dry again.
Monitoring rain/satellite pictures:
Still huge rains for S.Brazil and especially Eastern Brazil in coffee land but there is a small pocket of less than optimal rains in West/Central Brazil (Mato Grosso) that has grown slightly since yesterday that we should keep an eye on.
That little pocket of slightly less than ideal rain shrank on the mid day GFS products.(a tad wetter in that fairly small location).
Its not that big of a deal except to watch in case there starts to be a trend of the models getting drier.
This latest run still has at least 3 inches of rain everywhere during the next 2 weeks.
Argentina could start getting dry though.
Still have pretty good rains in Brazil with the exception of Mato Grosso Do Sul and far Southern Mato Grosso-not a key production area(in the blue-not dry but below average).
Argentina is barely average rains
2 week rains below from the 12z GFS ensemble:
Decent rains still in most of South America but a bit less than normal rain in a small area in the blue of west/central Brazil........that has been growing the last day.
Also the southern parts of bean land in Argentina will have rains slightly below average the next 2 weeks.............so weather is becoming less bearish.
USDA crop report is out Thursday 11am.
Not much change in the SA rain forecast the last 24 hours. Still the small area of less than optimal rains(just below average there-not dry) in WestCentral Brazil that might affect 10-15% of production at the most. Overall bearish. 2 week rains from 18z GFS ensemble below.
The USDA numbers tomorrow at 11am are mostly what matters though.
A bit less rain in the forecast for WestCentral Brazil (and most of it in week 2). Also a bit drier for N.Argentina compared to the end of last week.
Rains in mainly S.Brazil in week 1, spreading to C. Brazil and increasing in week 2. The big story may be that Argentina looks like it will be drying out some.
1st map is Week 1 total rains below.
2nd map is 2 week total rains from the 0z Wed GFS Ensemble
Total 2 week rains below
12z GFS ensemble had quite a bit more rain for west central Brazil,
Lots of rain for most of Brazil-bearish weather there.
However, Argentina is going to be drying out!
Beans are NOT trading SA weather right now. They are trading stocks running out and the need to ration the limited supply.
I think there is a strike going on in Argentina as well.
Good point Jim!
Here's the last forecast for SA. Brazil has plenty of rain. Argentina is on the dry side.
This is what Jim was talking about:
Just out 12z Sunday GFS ensemble 2 week rains:
Robust for Brazil but a bit low for Argentina, especially the far southern parts of their key growing region. To see that, scroll up.
Imagine where beans would be trading right now if the Brazil weather was bullish, instead of bearish!!!
This move up is not from SA weather but whats interesting is the amount of rain in central Brazil.
6"+ the next 2 weeks, a few recent model runs had as much as the 8 inch contour. The threat for TOO MUCH rain is much higher in Central Brazil right now than for drying out.....if weather mattered that much.
Close to average rain in much of Brazil but on the dry side for Argentina's corn/beans and farthest south areas of Brazil.
Just updated 18z GFS ensemble rain total for week one below.
Below that is the total for 2 weeks.
Beans are mostly going higher to ration too much demand of stocks(at this price) that will run out before the Brazil harvest in 2 months gives the market more.
Eric Snodgrass SA weather 12-28-2020
Rains continue to get skimpier for Argentina beans.
1. Total 1 week rains below. Not much for Argentina 12z GFS Ensemble just updated
2. Total 2 week rains below. Rains return but below normal for Argentina and far S. Brazil. C. Brazil =good.
Thanks for that link to Eric!
Eric Snodgrass SA weather 12-31-2020
Mike I thank you for all the work you do to bring all the weather info together here. To me You and Eric bring more understanding of what is happening. Thanks again!
YW very much cutworm!
It's a great pleasure sharing the Hoosier state/Indiana with you (-:
Appreciate all your positive contributions here!
Eric is the best verbal weather communicator that I've seen............EVER!
Keep his video's coming please.
Rains week 1 top map 0z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
Rains total for 2 weeks bottom map...............picking up in very dry Argentina week 2
Rains continue to pick up for very dry Argentina in week 2:
06Z GFS Ensemble below:
12Z GFS ensemble below
1. Map for Week 1......rains showing up at the end of this period in very dry Argentina
2. Map for 2 weeks total.............widespread robust rains in week 2 for very dry Argentina
Same forecast..........rains picking up in very day Argentina late week 1:
2 week totals below from the just out 12z GFSensemble:
Looks like a very nice rain event(s) late week 1 still but then turning dry again after early week 2 lingering rains.
Nice rain events Argentina days 5-10 then turning dry again. The market is trading "we're out of beans and can't wait for the Brazil harvest to get more" rather than just weather here..........although the weather could cause some additional volatility.
Total 2 week rains below:
2 week rains. Tons for Brazil, more than earlier this week for Argentina.
The incredible spike higher in corn and beans is not from the weather forecast. This is a demand led rally, featuring a huge drawdown in stocks.............that needs price rationing.
2 week rains from the just out 0z GFS Ensemble.
Plenty of rain C.Brazil. Maybe a tad below normal far S. Brazil. Pretty good in Argentina.
Weather is slightly more bearish in South America
2 week rains below from the 12z GFS Ensemble: