South America Dec/Jan 2020/21
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Started by metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:09 p.m.

See these comprehensive posts for South America Oct/Nov 2020

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59680/

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By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:11 p.m.
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Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles

December

  • Last corn planted in southern Argentina.
  • Corn beginning to pollinate in central Argentina.
  • Corn in northern Argentina moving from grain filling to maturity.
  • Finish planting full season soybeans.
  • Main month for harvesting wheat.
  • Start planting double crop soybeans after wheat is harvested.
  • Temperatures now approaching maximum summer highs.
  • Rainfall usually abundant, but can have dry spells.

January

  • Early corn in northern Argentina approaching maturity.
  • Corn moving from pollination to grain filling in central Argentina.
  • By end of month, some early corn and sunflowers are starting to be harvested.
  • Finish wheat harvest by early January.
  • Finish planting double crop soybeans by early January.
  • Full season soybeans flowering and starting to set pods.
  • Maximum summer temperatures.
  • Summer rains usually abundant, but can have dry spells.

 

February

  • More corn and sunflowers now being harvested.
  • Corn in central Argentina entering grain filling phase.
  • Full season soybeans setting and filling pods.
  • Double crop soybeans flowering.
  • Sunflower harvest in full swing.
  • Temperatures can still be very hot, but starting to cool by end of month.
  • Rainfall usually getting lighter.
By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:12 p.m.
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Global Crop Production Maps by Region

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/global_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/ssa/AR_Delegation/Argentina_soybeans_department_2014_2017.jpg                                    

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:13 p.m.
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Crop Calendar for Brazil:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

December

  •  
  • Finish soybean planting, early-planted soybeans flowering and setting pods.
  • Begin spraying to control soybean rust.
  • Corn crop completes pollination and begins grain filling.
  • Cotton planted begins in central Brazil.
  • Rains every day, especially in central Brazil, southern Brazil not quite as wet.
  • Cloud cover and rain holds temperatures in the 90's.

January

 

  • Soybeans flowering and setting pods. 
  • Some very early soybeans in central Brazil may be harvested this month.
  • First harvested soybeans shipped to processors.
  • Continue spraying to control soybean rust.
  • Corn in grain filling phase.
  • Peak of the rainy season, rains 2-3 times a day in central Brazil, overcast, very hot and humid, greenhouse-like conditions.

February

  • Main pod filling month for soybeans.
  • Early soybeans being harvested, corn harvest begins.
  • Harvested soybeans arrive at ports, soybean exports begin by early February.
  • Soybean rust control now focused on later maturing soybeans.
  • Safrinha (second corn crop) planted after early soybeans are harvested.
  • Can still be very rainy in central Brazil, rainfall less frequent in southern Brazil.
By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:14 p.m.
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  • https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

                                        

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:15 p.m.
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 The maps below are for the past 30 days, 90 days and 180 days % of average precipitation. 

Soybean country of Brazil has been dry!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif

                                    

                                    


            

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:19 p.m.
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The forecasts below come from the GFS/US model. They are constantly updated every 12 hours.


The big weather story is the pattern change coming up that will feature huge, widespread rains, some in the drought areas.  Soybean prices have fallen 40c the since Sunday Night ahead of this pattern change.

http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php










                               

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:23 p.m.
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The models, have over forecast rain amount recently but have alot coming up. The GFS Ensemble(just out 18z run below) has massive rains for parts of coffee land. Even a 10 inch contour. That would make a substantial dent in the drought and help to restore soil moisture there.

Southern Brazil beans might also get a bit too much rain.

But when you are still in a major drought, that is not going to be the interpretation this far out.


Central Brazil/Mato Grosso will get the least again. Maybe only 2-3  inches in the west. This is prime soybean growing country. 

The latest model run actually has a bit less than the one from 18 hours ago(2nd map below) but the pattern change to much wetter is getting closer each day and its going to be awhile for these maps to start looking dry again.                            

               

                                    



By metmike - Dec. 1, 2020, 8:59 p.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 2, 2020, 12:10 p.m.
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Still huge rains for S.Brazil and especially Eastern Brazil in coffee land but there is a small pocket of less than optimal rains in West/Central Brazil (Mato Grosso) that has grown slightly since yesterday that we should keep an  eye on.

By metmike - Dec. 2, 2020, 1:25 p.m.
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That little pocket of slightly less than ideal rain shrank on the mid day GFS products.(a tad wetter in that fairly small location).

Its not that big of a deal except to watch in case there starts to be a trend of the models getting drier.

This latest run still has at least 3 inches of rain everywhere during the next 2 weeks.

Argentina could start getting dry though.

By metmike - Dec. 2, 2020, 11:26 p.m.
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@kannbwxJust for fun, I dragged Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio inside of Mato Grosso, #Brazil. Look how huge it is. Plenty of room to spare!! 


Image

By metmike - Dec. 7, 2020, 1:58 p.m.
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Still have pretty good rains in Brazil with the exception of Mato Grosso Do Sul and far Southern Mato Grosso-not a key production area(in the blue-not dry but below average).

Argentina is barely average rains

2 week rains below from the 12z GFS ensemble:

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 1:32 a.m.
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Decent rains still in most of South America but a bit less than normal rain in a small area in the blue of west/central Brazil........that has been growing the last day.

Also the southern parts of bean land in Argentina will have rains slightly below average the next 2 weeks.............so weather is becoming less bearish.

USDA crop report is out Thursday 11am.


By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 7:45 p.m.
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Not much change in the SA rain forecast the last 24 hours. Still the small area of less than optimal rains(just below average there-not dry) in WestCentral Brazil that might affect 10-15% of production at the most. Overall  bearish.  2 week rains from 18z GFS ensemble below.

The USDA numbers tomorrow at 11am are mostly what matters though. 


By metmike - Dec. 13, 2020, 8:05 p.m.
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A bit less rain in the forecast for WestCentral Brazil (and most of it in week 2). Also a bit drier for N.Argentina compared to the end of last week.

By metmike - Dec. 16, 2020, 2:07 a.m.
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Rains in mainly S.Brazil in week 1, spreading to C. Brazil and increasing in week 2.  The big story may be that Argentina looks like it will be drying out some.


1st map is Week 1 total rains below. 

2nd map is 2 week total rains from the 0z Wed GFS Ensemble






Total 2 week rains below

By metmike - Dec. 16, 2020, 2:18 p.m.
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12z GFS ensemble had quite a bit more rain for west central Brazil,

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2020, 12:41 p.m.
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Lots of rain for most of Brazil-bearish weather there.

However,  Argentina is going to be drying out!

Beans are NOT trading SA weather right now. They are trading stocks running out and the need to ration the limited supply.

By Jim_M - Dec. 18, 2020, 1:48 p.m.
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I think there is a strike going on in Argentina as well.  

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2020, 3:22 p.m.
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Good point Jim!

Here's the last forecast for SA. Brazil has plenty of rain. Argentina is on the dry side.

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2020, 4:04 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Soybeans in Mato Grosso, #Brazil are at a critical point in the growth cycle - rain is very important for the next month or so. The mid-day GFS suggests decent rain for the next two weeks, but the key will be actually observing those rains.

Image

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2020, 4:06 p.m.
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This is what Jim was talking about:

               Argentine oilseed workers strike goes into the weekend, exports affected              

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/argentine-oilseed-workers-strike-goes-into-the-weekend-exports-affected-2020-12-18

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2020, 4:08 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Argentina's #soybeans are most concentrated in Cordoba, Santa Fe & Buenos Aires. The 2020/21 crop is pegged @ ~50 mln tonnes (1.84 bln bu). That is roughly the estimated 2020 crop of the U.S. I-states plus Minnesota. Speaking of, they fit quite nicely in Argentina's grain belt.

ImageImage

By metmike - Dec. 20, 2020, 1:35 p.m.
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Just out 12z Sunday GFS ensemble 2 week rains:

Robust for Brazil but a bit low for Argentina, especially the far southern parts of their key growing region. To see that, scroll up. 

Imagine where beans would be trading right now if the Brazil weather was bullish, instead of bearish!!!


                                    


            

                

By metmike - Dec. 21, 2020, 9:40 p.m.
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This move up is not from SA weather but whats interesting is the amount of rain in central Brazil. 

6"+ the next 2 weeks, a few  recent model runs had as much as the 8 inch contour.  The threat for TOO MUCH rain is much higher in Central Brazil right now than for drying out.....if weather mattered that much.



By metmike - Dec. 27, 2020, 8:34 p.m.
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Close to average rain in much of Brazil but on the dry side for Argentina's corn/beans and farthest south areas of Brazil.

Just updated 18z GFS ensemble rain total for week one below.

Below that is the total for 2 weeks.

Beans are mostly going higher to ration too much demand of stocks(at this price)  that will run out before the Brazil harvest in 2 months gives the market more. 

By cutworm - Dec. 28, 2020, 7:41 a.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 29, 2020, 1:25 p.m.
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Rains continue to get skimpier for Argentina beans. 

1. Total 1 week rains below. Not much for Argentina 12z GFS Ensemble just updated

2. Total 2 week rains below. Rains return but below normal for Argentina and far S. Brazil. C. Brazil =good.

By metmike - Dec. 30, 2020, 12:54 p.m.
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cutworm,

Thanks for that link to Eric!

By cutworm - Dec. 31, 2020, 9:46 a.m.
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Eric Snodgrass SA weather 12-31-2020

Nutrien Ag Solutions Ag Forecast for South America - Dec 31, 2020 - YouTube

Mike I thank you for all the work you do to bring all the weather info together here. To me You and Eric bring more understanding   of what is happening. Thanks again!

By metmike - Dec. 31, 2020, 11:51 a.m.
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YW very much cutworm!

It's a great pleasure sharing the Hoosier state/Indiana with you (-:

Appreciate all your positive contributions here!

mike

Eric is the best verbal weather communicator that I've seen............EVER!

Keep his video's coming please.

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2021, 2 a.m.
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Rains week 1 top map  0z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

Rains total for 2 weeks bottom map...............picking up in very dry Argentina week 2

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2021, 12:55 p.m.
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Rains continue to pick up for very dry Argentina in week 2:

06Z GFS Ensemble below:

By metmike - Jan. 4, 2021, 2:26 p.m.
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12Z GFS ensemble below

1. Map for Week 1......rains showing up at the end of this period in very dry Argentina

2. Map for 2 weeks total.............widespread robust rains in week 2 for very dry Argentina



By metmike - Jan. 5, 2021, 2:25 p.m.
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Same forecast..........rains picking up in very day Argentina late week 1:

2 week totals below from the just out  12z GFSensemble:

By metmike - Jan. 5, 2021, 8:14 p.m.
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Looks like a very nice rain event(s) late week 1 still but then turning dry again after early week 2 lingering rains.

By metmike - Jan. 6, 2021, 11:48 a.m.
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Nice rain events Argentina days 5-10 then turning dry again. The market is trading "we're out of beans and can't wait for the Brazil harvest to get more"  rather than just weather here..........although the weather could cause some additional volatility. 

Total 2 week rains below:

By metmike - Jan. 7, 2021, 5:14 p.m.
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2 week rains. Tons for Brazil, more than earlier this week for Argentina.


                                    


            

                

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:04 a.m.
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The incredible spike higher in corn and beans is not from the weather forecast. This is a demand led rally, featuring a huge drawdown in stocks.............that needs price rationing.

2 week rains from the just out 0z GFS Ensemble.

Plenty of rain C.Brazil. Maybe a tad below normal far S. Brazil. Pretty good in Argentina.

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:54 p.m.
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Weather is slightly more bearish in South America

2 week rains below from the 12z GFS Ensemble:


By metmike - Jan. 15, 2021, 2:12 p.m.
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Tons of rain coming to much of South America the next 2 weeks(especially all of Brazil and far N. Argentina.  Just out GFS ensemble mean below: