INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 9, 2020, 7:44 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, December 9, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 858.2)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.6%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 342.9)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +9.0%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 3891.1)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.6%)



10:00 AM ET. ISM Semiannual Report On Business Economic Forecast



10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index



10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)



10:00 AM ET. October Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey



10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 488.042M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.679M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.638M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.491M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 145.87M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.238M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 78.2%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.468M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.688M)

                       

Thursday, December 10, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1371.4K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 163.9K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 446.4K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 728K; previous 712K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -75K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 5520000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -569K)



8:30 AM ET. November CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M%



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.2%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3939B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -1B)

                       

12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, December 11, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. November PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)



10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 75.8; previous 77.0)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 71.3)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 85.8)



  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown



Monday, December 14, 2020  



  N/A              G30 special report launch - 'Reviving and Restructuring the

                       Corporate Sector Post-COVID'


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,195.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12,667.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,195.61. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at11,836.70.  



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight due to rising hopes for another stimulus package and COVID-19 vaccine optimism. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3608.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3706.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3608.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3484.70. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 169-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-17 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 170-22. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-17. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 171-04. Second support is November's low crossing at 170-22.



March T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.046 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.046. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 137.075. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $43.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $46.68. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $47.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $45.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $43.74.    



January heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the  stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $142.29. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $150.97. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $132.86. 



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $128.80. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.97. 



January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 2.179 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.792 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.678. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.792. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.368. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $91.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at $91.13. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.75. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $90.38. Second support is monthly support crossing at $90.21.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2020-decline crossing at $122.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.85. 



The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3329 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3550. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3329. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3140.



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1094 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1305. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1190. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1094. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $78.37. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.04.  



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0956 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0971 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0971. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0956. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0948.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1887.20 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1711.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1887.20. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1832.60. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $1767.20.



March silver was was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $26.27 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 16th high crossing at $25.285. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $26.27. First support is September's low crossing at $21.930. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $21.148. 



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.6126 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3512 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.5460. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly chart crossing at 3.6126. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.4741. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.3512.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.25 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2016 high crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.13 1/2. Second support is the October 29th low crossing at $3.93.    



March wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.65 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.55.      

 

March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.54. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $5.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.27 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at $5.09 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.42 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-rally crossing at $5.39 1/4.     

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.42 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.04 3/4.



March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $370.20 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $398.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $377.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $370.20.       



March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 38.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 36.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35.08.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.60 at $65.55. 



February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $62.75 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $72.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $69.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $72.80. First support is November's low crossing at $62.75. Second support is September's crossing at $61.55.     



February cattle closed down $0.20 at $110.83 



February cattle close lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off the November 24th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. February extends the decline off the November 24th high, the November 20th low crossing at $109.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the November 24th high crossing at $114.70. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $115.45. First support is the November 20th low crossing at $109.00. Second support is October's low crossing at $105.53. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $137.73. 


January Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.56 is the next downside target. If January resumes the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $147.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $143.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $147.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.56. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $133.00.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 12.80 is the next upside target.    



March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.99 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.82 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 27.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.                     



March sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 14.33 would open the door for a possible test of the October 30th low crossing at 13.94. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.45 is the next upside target.             



March cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 79.56 is the next upside target. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.70 is the next downside target.  

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By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 11:37 a.m.
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