KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 863.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 316.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 4169.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 863.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 316.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 4169.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)
8:15 AM ET. December ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +60000; previous +307000)
9:45 AM ET. December US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 55.1; previous 58.4)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +1.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 493.5M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.1M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.2M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 152.0M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.1M)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
11:00 AM ET. December Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.2)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,203.71.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3748.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3584.71.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were sharply lower overnight and breaking out to the downside of the symmetrical triangle formed off the November high and low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the November high, monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 169-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-14 would signal that a low has been open while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 177-06. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-14. Second resistance is the November 20th high crossing at 175-21. First support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 169-16. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were sharply lower overnight breaking out to the downside of the November-December symmetrical triangle. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, November's low crossing at 136.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 138.080 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st high crossing at 138.080. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is the overnight low crossing at 137.060. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $50.59. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is December's low crossing at $44.10.
February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $143.08. Second support is the December 2nd low crossing at $134.29.
February unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $130.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $146.81. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the December 21st low crossing at $130.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.50.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the December 28th low crossing at 2.263. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.555 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.818. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.547. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at 2.263.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off the 2020 high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $90.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.51. First support is the overnight low crossing at $89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-March's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.33. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at $120.90.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3327 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3493. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3327.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1160.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $79.19. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.25. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at $75.96.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 0.0964. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.70. Second support is the December 14th low crossing at $1820.00.
March silver was was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the September 15th high crossing at $28.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.778 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $30.365. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.586. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.777.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's upside breakout of December's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is overnight high crossing at 3.7075. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3712.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.48 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.69 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.48 1/2.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.34 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally of August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.79 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.12. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.94 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.79 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.90 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.97 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.42.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $407.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $444.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $423.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $407.00.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.91. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.24.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.48 at $70.75.
February hogs closed lower on Tuesday and filled Monday's gap as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.74. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.
February cattle closed up $2.70 at $115.00
February cattle posted a key reversal up on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.43 at $137.45.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $140.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-April's high and posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Rains picking up days 5-10 for very dry Argentina...then dry again.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/
Exports:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63716/
Natural gas....pattern change to colder:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63363/