INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 6, 2021, 4:02 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, January 7, 2021 



7:30 AM ET. December Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -20%)



8:30 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -67.3B; previous -63.1B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 182.0B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +2.2%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 245.1B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +2.1%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 815K; previous 787K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 5219000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -103K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 964.6K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1011.3K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 520.6K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. December ISM Report on Business Services PMI



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 54.5; previous 55.9)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 58.0)



                       Prices Idx (previous 66.1)



                       Employment Idx (previous 51.5)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 57.2)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3460B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -114B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. December Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, January 8, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +50K; previous +245K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 6.8%; previous 6.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.58)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.31%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.5%; previous +4.38%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -99K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +344K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +1.1%)



3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +9.0B; previous +7.2B)





Monday, January 11, 2021 



10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 98.81)



                       ETI, Y/Y%


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted closed sharply higher on Wednesday after Democrats appeared to have won one U.S. Senate seat in Tuesday’s run-off elections in Georgia raising the prospect of more government spending to aid the economic recovery. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 29,755.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,022.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 29,755.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29,440.89.  



The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12,959.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 12,461.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,206.20.   



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3748.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3584.71.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 2-06/32's at 169-26.

  

March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the November-December symmetrical triangle. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-14 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173-14. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 177-06. First support is today's low crossing at 169-13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04. 



March T-notes closed down 200-pts. at 137.070.



March T-notes closed sharply lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the November-December symmetrical triangle. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, November's low crossing at 136.265. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.070 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.070. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 138.300. First support is today's low crossing at 137.030. Second support is November's low crossing at 136.265.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $50.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $52.41. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at $46.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $44.23.  



February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at $143.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.86. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the December 21st low crossing at  $143.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.79. 



February unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $149.31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $152.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $130.27.    



February Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.565 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 22nd high crossing at 2.775. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.820. First support is December's low crossing at 2.263. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.179. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering but not before posting a new contract low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.18. Second resistance is the December 21st reaction high crossing at 90.95. First support is today's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 



The March Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.31. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.  



The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3490 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3326. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3490. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at 1.3326. 

 

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1160.



The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.



The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at $1973.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  $1881.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1901.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1881.40.



March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 29.380 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.760 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.758. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.851. 



March copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's upside breakout of December's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 370.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 337.06. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up a $0.03 1/4-cents at $4.95. 



March corn closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.48 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.69 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.48 1/2.    



March wheat closed down $0.06 1/2-cents at $6.47 1/2.  



March wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.67 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.33 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.16 1/4.       



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $6.04 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's  rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.78 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.78 3/4.      



March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01-cents at $6.06 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.75 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at crossing at $6.13 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $6.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 1/2.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up $0.14 1/2-cents at $13.61 1/2.



March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.41 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.96 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  $12.41 1/2.



March soybean meal closed up $6.50 to $438.30. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $406.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $444.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $423.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $406.90.       



March soybean oil closed up 30-pts. at 43.90. 



March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 41.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 40.22.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $1.03 at $69.90. 



February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.99. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.  



February cattle closed up $0.03 at $115.08 



February cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Second support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   



March Feeder cattle closed down $0.88 at $136.55. 


March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $140.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $134.85. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.41 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average  crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.    



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                        



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.  Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.22 would confirm that a short-term top  has been posted.   

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 7, 2021, 3:21 a.m.
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Thank you TAllpine!