Please continue here for NG discussion. Thank you.
NG has been down relative to yesterday’s settle with only moderate volatility. Dow is down but not by much with it still near record highs.
Supposed to be 40 here in NE Ohio tomorrow, Sat Jan 9th. Jobless claims rose for the first time since April. Not much for NG to hang its hat on.
Too much ng in storage with almost half of the heating season passed and recently bearish EIA reports.
Thanks for the new thread Larry!
Also, the extreme cold from the pattern change doesn't look like it will be as extreme as it did earlier in the week.
But it will look different on Sunday.
NG in Spain and china in short supply due to extreme cold
Madrid had snow
Is this a case of NG supply and demand not being in the places needed
Spain and china prices up
Nether can access supplies sufficient for needs
Not enough LNG boats
China forced to open coal fired plant as china had closed many coal fired plants and switched to electricity for industrial production and heat
China in deep freeze but wont accept coal from Aut due to tensions between countries. I thought china had their own coal supplies
Just what I am reading
Do not trade so FWIW
Thanks Wayne!
Models don't look as cold as they did early last week after we had the bullish gap higher.
Warming trends from forecasts over the weekend, albeit with hints of potential colder temperatures for key U.S. regions later this month, pressured natural gas futures lower in early trading Monday. The February Nymex contract was down 3.8 cents to $2.662/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. After previously offering different outlooks on the upcoming pattern, the…
January 11, 2021
Buoyed by forecasts showing frigid temperatures finding their way into the Lower 48 later this month, natural gas futures rallied in early trading Tuesday. The February Nymex contract had surged 11.8 cents to $2.865/MMBtu as of 8:40 a.m. ET. Overall gas-weighted degree day expectations were largely unchanged day/day in the latest Bespoke Weather Services forecast…
January 12, 2021
With the market still eyeing a potential shift to notably chillier temperatures later this month, natural gas futures were up several cents in early trading Wednesday. The February Nymex contract was up 3.0 cents to $2.783/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Prices retreated in Tuesday’s trading as midday weather model runs backed off on the…
LNG Price Boom
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2021 | 10:30 | -130B | |||
| Jan 07, 2021 | 10:30 | -130B | -114B | ||
| Dec 31, 2020 | 10:30 | -114B | -125B | -152B | |
| Dec 23, 2020 | 12:00 | -152B | -160B | -122B | |
| Dec 17, 2020 | 10:30 | -122B | -120B | -91B | |
| Dec 10, 2020 | 10:30 | -91B | -83B | -1B |
for week ending January 1, 2021 | Released: January 7, 2021 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: January 14, 2021
-130 BCF Bearish again
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (01/01/20) | 5-year average (2016-20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 01/01/21 | 12/25/20 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 765 | 810 | -45 | -45 | 771 | -0.8 | 737 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 923 | 973 | -50 | -50 | 905 | 2.0 | 871 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 196 | 204 | -8 | -8 | 173 | 13.3 | 171 | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 282 | 289 | -7 | -7 | 251 | 12.4 | 274 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,163 | 1,183 | -20 | -20 | 1,093 | 6.4 | 1,075 | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 333 | 334 | -1 | -1 | 313 | 6.4 | 323 | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 830 | 849 | -19 | -19 | 780 | 6.4 | 752 | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,330 | 3,460 | -130 | -130 | 3,192 | 4.3 | 3,129 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,330 Bcf as of Friday, January 1, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 130 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 138 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 201 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,129 Bcf. At 3,330 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
7 day temps from last weeks report:
7 day temps for the EIA this week:
7 day temps-ending 1-8-21 for tomorrows EIA weekly storage report. 
for week ending January 8, 2021 | Released: January 14, 2021 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: January 22, 2021
-134 BCF
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (01/08/20) | 5-year average (2016-20) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 01/08/21 | 01/01/21 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 726 | 765 | -39 | -39 | 727 | -0.1 | 697 | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 879 | 923 | -44 | -44 | 861 | 2.1 | 829 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 188 | 196 | -8 | -8 | 162 | 16.0 | 165 | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 278 | 282 | -4 | -4 | 238 | 16.8 | 248 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,126 | 1,163 | -37 | -37 | 1,082 | 4.1 | 1,040 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 327 | 333 | -6 | -6 | 321 | 1.9 | 308 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 799 | 830 | -31 | -31 | 761 | 5.0 | 732 | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,196 | 3,330 | -134 | -134 | 3,070 | 4.1 | 2,978 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,196 Bcf as of Friday, January 8, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 218 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,978 Bcf. At 3,196 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 134 Bcf from natural gas storage for the week ended Jan. 8. The result exceeded both the year-earlier pull and the midpoint of analysts’ estimates, but it fell short of fueling Nymex natural gas futures. It was “a stronger draw than we estimated…reflecting…
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2021 | 10:30 | -134B | -130B | ||
| Jan 07, 2021 | 10:30 | -130B | -114B | ||
| Dec 31, 2020 | 10:30 | -114B | -125B | -152B | |
| Dec 23, 2020 | 12:00 | -152B | -160B | -122B | |
| Dec 17, 2020 | 10:30 | -122B | -120B | -91B | |
| Dec 10, 2020 | 10:30 | -91B | -83B | -1B |
As models maintained expectations for a shift to colder U.S. temperatures to close out the month of January, natural gas futures reversed their recent losses in early trading Friday. After giving up 6.1 cents in the previous session, the February Nymex contract was up 9.1 cents to $2.757/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Recent weather…
metmike: Much colder Euro Ensemble is what REALLY ignited the rally just after midnight, after the GFS Ensemble had also been colder.
There is no conviction in the direction of NG in either direction. Hard to go lower in winter, but hard to go higher when there is so much of it.
By Kevin Dobbs
January 15, 2021
