NG 1/8/21+
22 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - Jan. 8, 2021, 12:20 p.m.

Please continue here for NG discussion. Thank you.

NG has been down relative to yesterday’s settle with only moderate volatility. Dow is down but not by much with it still near record highs.

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Re: NG 1/8/21+
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By Jim_M - Jan. 8, 2021, 1:54 p.m.
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Supposed to be 40 here in NE Ohio tomorrow, Sat Jan 9th.  Jobless claims rose for the first time since April.  Not much for NG to hang its hat on.

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2021, 3:17 p.m.
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Too much ng in storage with almost half of the heating season passed and recently bearish EIA reports.


Thanks for the new thread Larry!

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2021, 3:50 p.m.
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Also, the extreme cold from the pattern change doesn't look like it will be as extreme as it did earlier in the week.

But it will look different on Sunday.

Re: NG 1/8/21+
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By wglassfo - Jan. 9, 2021, 10:16 a.m.
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NG in Spain and china in short supply due to extreme cold

Madrid had snow

Is this a case of NG supply and demand not being in the places needed

Spain and china prices up

Nether can access supplies sufficient for needs

Not enough LNG boats

China forced to open coal fired plant as china had closed many coal fired plants and switched to electricity for industrial production and heat

China in deep freeze but wont accept coal from Aut due to tensions between countries. I thought china had their own coal supplies

Just what I am reading

Do not trade so FWIW

By metmike - Jan. 9, 2021, 8:19 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

Models don't look as cold as they did early last week after we had the bullish gap higher.

By metmike - Jan. 11, 2021, 1:15 p.m.
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Forecasts Shift Warmer Over Weekend as Natural Gas Futures Slide

 

Warming trends from forecasts over the weekend, albeit with hints of potential colder temperatures for key U.S. regions later this month, pressured natural gas futures lower in early trading Monday. The February Nymex contract was down 3.8 cents to $2.662/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. After previously offering different outlooks on the upcoming pattern, the… 

   January 11, 2021

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2021, 11:43 a.m.
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Prospect of Frigid Canadian Air Reaching Lower 48 Bolsters Natural Gas Futures Early

 

Buoyed by forecasts showing frigid temperatures finding their way into the Lower 48 later this month, natural gas futures rallied in early trading Tuesday. The February Nymex contract had surged 11.8 cents to $2.865/MMBtu as of 8:40 a.m. ET. Overall gas-weighted degree day expectations were largely unchanged day/day in the latest Bespoke Weather Services forecast… 

   January 12, 2021

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 1:57 a.m.
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Harsh Winter Freeze; Cash Prices Jump

Natural gas prices surged early on Tuesday amid expectations for intensifying U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand and increased anticipation of subfreezing air descending from Canada and covering large parts of the Lower 48 in late January. After spiking about 15 cents in morning trading, the February Nymex gas futures contract gave back much… 

  January 12, 2021

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:15 p.m.
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Models in Better Agreement on Late-Month Cold as Natural Gas Futures Advance Early

 

With the market still eyeing a potential shift to notably chillier temperatures later this month, natural gas futures were up several cents in early trading Wednesday. The February Nymex contract was up 3.0 cents to $2.783/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Prices retreated in Tuesday’s trading as midday weather model runs backed off on the… 

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:16 p.m.
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                LNG Price Boom             

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/64212/

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:22 p.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                       

            

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Latest Release  Jan 07, 2021  Actual-130B Previous-114B
  •                                                                                                                                                                                                        
Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jan 14, 2021 10:30  -130B
Jan 07, 2021 10:30-130B -114B
Dec 31, 2020 10:30-114B-125B-152B
Dec 23, 2020 12:00-152B-160B-122B
Dec 17, 2020 10:30-122B-120B-91B
Dec 10, 2020 10:30-91B-83B-1B


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:23 p.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 1, 2021   |  Released: January 7, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 14, 2021 

                                                                                                                                         -130 BCF Bearish again                                                                                                                                                        

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/01/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region01/01/2112/25/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East765  810  -45  -45   771  -0.8  737  3.8  
Midwest923  973  -50  -50   905  2.0  871  6.0  
Mountain196  204  -8  -8   173  13.3  171  14.6  
Pacific282  289  -7  -7   251  12.4  274  2.9  
South Central1,163  1,183  -20  -20   1,093  6.4  1,075  8.2  
   Salt333  334  -1  -1   313  6.4  323  3.1  
   Nonsalt830  849  -19  -19   780  6.4  752  10.4  
Total3,330  3,460  -130  -130   3,192  4.3  3,129  6.4  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,330 Bcf as of Friday, January 1, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 130 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 138 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 201 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,129 Bcf. At 3,330 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:25 p.m.
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7 day temps from last weeks report:

7 day temps for the EIA this week:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210101.7day.mean.F.gif

                                    


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:27 p.m.
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7 day temps-ending 1-8-21  for tomorrows EIA  weekly storage report. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210108.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 2:29 p.m.
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NG rig count continues to very slowly climb:


https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs


By metmike - Jan. 14, 2021, 11:33 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 8, 2021   |  Released: January 14, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 22, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -134 BCF                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/08/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region01/08/2101/01/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East726  765  -39  -39   727  -0.1  697  4.2  
Midwest879  923  -44  -44   861  2.1  829  6.0  
Mountain188  196  -8  -8   162  16.0  165  13.9  
Pacific278  282  -4  -4   238  16.8  248  12.1  
South Central1,126  1,163  -37  -37   1,082  4.1  1,040  8.3  
   Salt327  333  -6  -6   321  1.9  308  6.2  
   Nonsalt799  830  -31  -31   761  5.0  732  9.2  
Total3,196  3,330  -134  -134   3,070  4.1  2,978  7.3  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,196 Bcf as of Friday, January 8, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 218 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,978 Bcf. At 3,196 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods. 

                                                                                                                                                                                         


By metmike - Jan. 14, 2021, 1:39 p.m.
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Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal Eclipses Expectations but Fails to Boost Futures

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 134 Bcf from natural gas storage for the week ended Jan. 8. The result exceeded both the year-earlier pull and the midpoint of analysts’ estimates, but it fell short of fueling Nymex natural gas futures. It was “a stronger draw than we estimated…reflecting… 

By metmike - Jan. 14, 2021, 1:42 p.m.
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               https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386          

            

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

              Latest Release    Jan 14, 2021     Actual-134B       Previous-130B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jan 14, 2021 10:30-134B -130B
Jan 07, 2021 10:30-130B -114B
Dec 31, 2020 10:30-114B-125B-152B
Dec 23, 2020 12:00-152B-160B-122B
Dec 17, 2020 10:30-122B-120B-91B
Dec 10, 2020 10:30-91B-83B-1B


By metmike - Jan. 14, 2021, 11:21 p.m.
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February Natural Gas Futures Flounder as Potential for Extreme Cold Eases; Cash Prices Fall

 In a third consecutive day of topsy-turvy trading, natural gas futures ultimately finished firmly in negative territory, as markets fixated more on shifting weather patterns than a bullish storage report and rising U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.666/MMBtu, down 6.1 cents day/day. March fell 5.9 cents… 

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2021, 11:47 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Rebound Early as Models Retain Late January Cold

 As models maintained expectations for a shift to colder U.S. temperatures to close out the month of January, natural gas futures reversed their recent losses in early trading Friday. After giving up 6.1 cents in the previous session, the February Nymex contract was up 9.1 cents to $2.757/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. Recent weather… 

metmike: Much colder Euro Ensemble is what REALLY ignited the rally just after midnight, after the GFS Ensemble had also been colder.



By Jim_M - Jan. 15, 2021, 1:04 p.m.
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There is no conviction in the direction of NG in either direction.  Hard to go lower in winter, but hard to go higher when there is so much of it.

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2021, 1:31 p.m.
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February Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back on Renewed Expectation of Deep Freeze

Natural gas prices rebounded Friday from a loss the day earlier as volatile weather forecasts shifted back to expectations for a severe winter chill in late January that could drive a surge in heating demand. The February Nymex gas futures contract climbed 7.1 cents day/day and settled at $2.737/MMBtu on Friday. The advance more than… 

  By Kevin Dobbs

January 15, 2021