TFC Commodity Trading Forum
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Started by bcb - Jan. 8, 2021, 10:59 p.m.

This forum looks to be closed down. Maybe traffic will move over here. Little traffic anyway 

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2021, 11:57 p.m.
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Thanks bcb!

By MarkB - Jan. 9, 2021, 2:37 a.m.
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I monitor other NG trading forums. And I find a lot of them lacking in current info and discussion that is not highly sarcastic. Current news on NG, is almost non-existant. While hours behind on this forum. But at least on our forum, it comes in so that we can say, "Oh! that's why that happened." 6 hours ago.

By joj - Jan. 9, 2021, 8:05 a.m.
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On a related trading topic...

In my youth I worked at a clearing firm and I used to grab my brown bag lunch and go to the trader's room.  After a time I figured out who the hucksters were that were gouging the customers for commissions and who the traders were that were actually making money (I found one!).  He caught the stock market rocket in the fall of '82.  He caught the grain rally in '83.

I sat next to that real trader who was an old Japanese gentleman that was about 5'1".  Each day I would eat lunch next to him and try to glean some of his knowledge.  No matter what questions I asked he would always reply in his broken English:  "When you wong....  GET OUT!!"   After months of receiving the same line over and over I replied:  "How do you know when you are wrong?"  He replied thoughtfully:  "In your head, you think you're right.  But in your heart, you KNOOOWWW you're wrong."  The bias in your head makes you justify your losing position, but your gut tells you there is something wrong.   It's not only good trading advice, it is good advice for living.

And now the other line he said that also stuck with me these past 40 years that was rekindled by the comment above by Mark B.  

One day the wheat market had a sharp rally in the first half hour of trade.  He sold it short.  5 minutes later it rallied some more.  He sold a bit more.  I asked him what he was expecting in the trade.  He said that in 2 weeks time the market would be 15-20 cents lower.  I asked him why.  He replied:  "You look in the newspaper in 2 weeks.  They tell you why."

Economists can always explain things after the fact.  

By hayman - Jan. 9, 2021, 8:45 a.m.
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You encapsulated so much in your wonderful post.  The ability to fade one's own self.  For the heart to use the biased mind as an indicator sublime. Truly spiritual and a lesson of life.  Very generous of you to share such hard won truths.  Bless you, Monsieur joj~!~

By bcb - Jan. 9, 2021, 10:51 a.m.
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My father had a 3 day rule. Position still going the wrong way out. Sometimes the market when out makes you feel like a winner.

By joj - Jan. 9, 2021, 4:52 p.m.
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Thanks for the kind words Hayman.

By metmike - Jan. 9, 2021, 7:31 p.m.
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Great stories joj, 

Thanks for sharing!