As of tomorrow, I am converting nearly everything I have in accounts, to physicals. Gold, silver, meats, etc. Exiting all other contract trading venues. And 401k stocks. Life is about to change.
After Trump leaves, the politics should settle down a bit but the markets will be anything but stable and predictable.
Mike. You have no idea. This ain't weather. Hide and watch. I'm still going to maintain $5k in my trading account, just so I can trade. Just in case. But I am converting everything else to physicals. Including my 401k's.
"Mike. You have no idea. This ain't weather"
I moved all my money on Friday in my 401k to cash.
i expect that over the next 5 to 10 years, we will see the dow go nowhere. maybe up, down, up, down, but nowhere as a 10 year return.
so this may mean a trading range.
i expect the bond bull is dead. if you buy long bonds hoping for bond prices to rise, you will be sadly disappointed.
i think commodities will see a bit of a rise.
when p/e 's on the market are this high, a person normally is better off to hold gold and gold mines. until markets come down.
disclaimer,... i am long NEM. i would buy more if it gets back down below 50.
I hear ya and know what your trying to say. Thanks and Best of Luck to you.
Thanks for the great thoughts!
as a long term historical average, the stock market does just as well (or a little better) under a dem prez, than under a pub prez.
of course, if you don't count the 1929 to 32 crash, then it is pretty even.
Nothing is happening so far and it does not look like anything will happen prior to Trump leaving office and I doubt anything really bad happens during the first week or two of Biden's Term. Any suggestion about what you thought would happen?
Bear and Mark B,
It is hard to argue with your assessment given valuations by numerous metrics are quite frothy. Buffet's Market Cap to GDP ratio is at all time highs of 1.8 vs 1.5 at the 2000 bubble top.
The only thing that gives me pause is the ZIRP policy of the Fed and what other tricks they have in their bag going forward. Trillions of sovereign debt at negative rates globally. Is this time really "different"?
I read a book about German hyperinflation in the 1920s. Stock values in Germany did well in nominal terms, although obviously that was no protection.
At the end of Wednesday, I sold a large portion of my equities (in IRA). I had held these for 20+ years. So, this was by far my largest equities sell ever. With equities near record highs and with the uncertainty of next week related to the inauguration, I decided to play it safe. At some point later, I plan to reenter.