disclaimer... yes, i am long silver, but...

there is a big difference between gamestop, and silver. 

big financial firms were short gamestop, big time.  they wanted it to go down,  which means they plan to buy it back later.  (that is the only way they make money going short,... sell high, then buy low).  they did not plan on a bunch of small time traders buying to catch them with their pants down,  and squeeze their shorts.  (gee ,... that could sound dirty).  

with silver, it is not primarily traders that short, planning to buy later.  a large mining company that primarily mines copper, or zinc, etc, may sell silver as a way to even out their long term finances.  (maybe they sell at 20 bucks per ounce over the next 15 years).  the are NOT selling now,  with the intention of buying back later at a lower price.  

and an industrial user will buy at 20 bucks per ounce, over the next 10 years, (no matter what happens to the spot price) so they know what their costs will be for their manufacturing purposes.  

those 2 parties will not be affected if silver moves up  or down.  

my great uncle accumulated physical silver (old ben halves).  he died 10 years ago.  his wife sold all that at 25 bucks per ounce almost 10 years back.  (she used the cash to buy a new piano for her church).  she does not have to buy back to cover a short.  (the future price does not matter to that person who sold physical).  

as far a cycles are concerned... this is my long term outlook.  

after silver has a big run up,  (as it did from 2002, to 2011), it will then move sideways or lower for a very long time.  

it is possible we may get up to $50 over the next 15 years.  but we are NOT going up 500% any time soon.  (at least not this decade).  

over the last 200 years,  silver went up in the 1860's, and 1870's,  but did not hit huge new highs  just 50 yrs later. 

you do not go blasting to big new highs until almost 100 years later.  

we will not get a hugh bull in silver until after 2050... 

i think by 2040, silver will try to go past 50, just enough to suck in all the bulls, and be a false breakout.  then try to go back down again.  (to suck in all the bears and be a false breakdown).  

a person today who is 30 years old , should definitely hold some old morgan dollars.  these will go sky high by the year 2070.  but they will Not go sky high this decade (in the 2020s).  

I bought silver coins approx 3 weeks ago and the delivery date was approx 3 days to my bank

Today I looked and the premium is  2.00/coin more and they say delivery will be weeks [I forget how many weeks] due to increased demand

Why the increased demand as I have never seen this long for delivery for Canadian 1 oz silver coins. With premium approx 44.00 plus [CAD]  CIBC 2021  1 oz silver coin. I know CIBC charges a slightly higher premium but I trust delivery and no cross border custom hassles. Not like I can actually do the transaction in person due to covid at the border, I could find a bullion dealer with lower premium, buy USA coins, but dang that covid thing at the border.

I will admit not everybody can take physical delivery of 5000 oz of silver. I am not sure how many oz of silver in a mini contract, but would take more than I would want to pay for delivery

Redditt wants folks to take physical delivery. Do they have enough folks with money to pay for delivery is the question, I think 

The thinking is there are more paper contracts than physical available. Normally contracts are settled for cash at delivery time or shortly before. This time redditt wants to find out if the physical actually exists to cover paper contracts. If Mutual funds go long and stand for delivery then ???

You can not create physical silver 

Silver is a commodity just like corn and if corn is in short supply then price and demand become a factor

I realize this may not become any thing as JPMorgan has paid huge fines in the past for what ever they did to be found guilty and pay the penalty 

Will be interesting if nothing else

there has often been more paper contracts that what there is physical.  but,  the exchanges do not have to deliver physical.  if they don't have it,  they can always just pay you cash, or a credit in your account.  

you can always get on a silver mining website.  first majestic (AG), and panamerican (PAAS) both let you place an order for physical coins with the company logo.  but it may be above spot, and take a bit to deliver.  i have never done this.  

disclaimer, i have traded first majestic in the past, and made a little.

i have owned a bit of panamerican stock since 1998.  

Thanks for this discussion Wayne and bear!

The story on silver right now is amazing. I’ll try to have more on it later on monday.

Silver is right up against the August highs a break above those highs and weak short specs might start to cover. might be an expulsive day! or not