KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 9, 2021
6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 95.9)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)
5:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as the rally off last-Monday's low may be slowing.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,889.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,698.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,266.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,889.28.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3745.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3913.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3817.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3745.22.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off the January 28th high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-20 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If March extends the decline off August's high, a test of the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 170-28. First support is Monday's low crossing at 166-03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the January 27th high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.128 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.128. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is Monday's low crossing at 136.145. Second support is January's low crossing at 133.010.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $58.49. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $53.87. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at $51.38.
April heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $175.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $166.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.12.
April unleaded gas was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $172.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.50.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the correction off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the February 2nd gap crossing at 2.716 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 3.052 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.980. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.052. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.779. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.698.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the November 30th reaction high crossing at $91.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $91.96. Second resistance is the November 23rd high crossing at $92.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.47. Second support is the January 21st low crossing at $90.03.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.65. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was higher overnight and spiked to a new high as it renewed the rally off last-March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.3867 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3557 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.3867. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3557. Second support is the January 11th low crossing at 1.3456.
The March Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1262 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, this winter's head-and-shoulders top projects a potential decline to 1.1013. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is the downside target of this winter's head-and-shoulders top crossing at 1.1013.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 21st low crossing at $77.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is January's low crossing at $77.63. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.
The March Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 0.0945 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 0.0945.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1784.60. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.
March silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $30.350 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.656 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.232. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at $24.715.
March copper was higher overnight it extends the rebound off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 3.4390 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.4910. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.4390.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn higher overnight extends Monday's rally to the highest prices in 7-and-a-half years on bullish expectations for this morning’s monthly (WASDE) report estimates from USDA. Trade expectations are fore lower domestic stocks while rainy weather in South America has slowed if not halted some harvest activity. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $4.92 1/2.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City wheat was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains ahead of this month's monthly WASDE report from the USDA. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.96 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $5.93 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight by expectations for shrinking domestic stocks along with reports of rainy weather that has slowed an already sluggish harvest in Brazil.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $13.94 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a test of January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $13.94 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.98. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $439.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $419.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $439.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $419.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil was sharply higher overnight breaking out to the topside of the trading range of the past two-weeks to renew the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 46.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 41.45.
thanks tallpine