KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 11, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 755K; previous 779K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -33K)
Continuing Claims (previous 4592000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -193K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 7520.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1457.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 736.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2689B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -192B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 12, 2021
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.9; previous 79.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.7)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher for the eighth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,531.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,509.87. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,899.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,531.11.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,307.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13,769.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,437.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,918.35.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3750.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3928.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3823.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3750.96.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed up 20/32's at 167-24.
March T-bonds closed higher for the third day in a row on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-18. Second resistance is the January 28th high crossing at 170-29. Third resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 170-23. First support is Monday's low crossing at 166-03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes closed up 80 pts. at 136.315.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.129 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.120. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed higher for the eighth-day in a row on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude stockpiles dropped by 6.6 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 5. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $58.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $55.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.17.
April heating oil closed higher for the eighth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.96. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at $155.62. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.97.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $180.01. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $157.21.
April Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up on Wednesday ending the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 3.052 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.716 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.980. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.052. First support is the January 29th low crossing at 2.583. Second support is the January 22nd low crossing at 2.475.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.44 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the November 30th high crossing at 91.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 91.61. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is the January 21st low crossing 90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.
The March Euro closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 122.03. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.68. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3568 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the January 11th low crossing at 1.3200. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3868. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3568. Second support is the January 11th low crossing at 1.3456.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1266 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1266. Second resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0913.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 79.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.95. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 79.44. First support is the December 28st low crossing at 77.63. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday ending a three-day rebound off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 0.0945 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0963. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0945.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is November's low crossing at $1771.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1724.50.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.740 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.740. Second support is January's low crossing at 24.040.
March copper closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 398.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 358.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 379.55. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 398.95. First support is January's low crossing at 349.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 343.90.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.21 3/4-cents at $5.34 1/2.
March corn closed sharply lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. Tuesday's WASDE report showed a larger-than-expected domestic stocks along with no reduction in South America's corn crop triggered today's sharp sell off. The cancellation of a large sale to unknown destinations also provided additional selling pressure. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 signals that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the January 25th low crossing at $4.92 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 are needed to extend the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $4.92 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.84 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.14-cents at $6.35 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.19 1/2-cents at $6.14.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.97 1/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.97 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $6.18 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.97. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.97.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.47 3/4-cents at $13.54.
March soybeans closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.96 1/4 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.96 1/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $16.40 to $422.30.
March soybean meal closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $419.80 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $437.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $419.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil closed down 83 pts. at 45.69.
March soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 46.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 41.60.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $1.45 at $81.83.
April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the June-2017 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $83.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.83. Second resistance is the June-2017 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $83.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.53.
April cattle closed down $1.13 at $122.70
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $125.68. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.24.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.32 at $143.50.
April Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday breaking out to the downside of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 12.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 11.88. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 13.18 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton posted an inside day with a sharply lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
thanks tallpine