no question that the upcoming extreme cold will hurt some of the winter wheat in the s.plains
this isnt just 1 night of extreme cold ....then moderating. some areas with bare ground will see several sub zero nights in a row. nw.ks, for instance. this will allow the killing cold to penetrate very deeply in the soil profile.
Lows days 3-7 below:
NorthCentral plunges into the DEEEEEEEP freeze!!! MUCH below ZERO!
there is no snow cover. some of ne has a nice protective snowpack but not so farther south.
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some of those areas ....depicted below have low soil moisture so the cold will penetrate and the crop did not get well established in the fall. dry soil warms up and cools off up to 6 times faster than moist soil.
however, just before the coldest air is scheduled to arrive, a huge snow storm will develop in the s.plains.
i totally overlooked something in that last email.
theres some massive snow on the way, possibly alot for those areas most at risk just before the coldest air arrives.
from the european model ensemble
here are some individual solutions for snow on sunday
the 2nd batch is snow on monday forecast
the 3rd batch is snow forecast on tuesday